I like this. I would personally put it at this box & whisker plot:

Wii U: 50mil <<< 80-100mil <<< 140mil

You realise you are saying it is not possible (obviously major disasters aside, I won't laugh at you if the Wii U fails due to mass extiction) for the Wii U to finish up fewer than 50 million units... I will be waiting until it's had a ridiculously successful 1st year on the market before I determine less than 50 million is impossible. As an example of the possible/impossible scenario stuff, until late 2009 my "max possible" for the Wii was 200 million. Though back then some were still expecting 3rd parties to at least give the Wii a try.

I know :D It's just that I'm basing my prediction on the strategy Nintendo is taking, and that's to inspire its home console business after its handheld business. And sinsce that's never been below 100mil, I though 50mil was being generous :P

But to be fair, I'm a bit of a gambler so its an aggressive call. However, I put my money where my mouth is, because I have 2.5k invested in Nintendo stock atm :)

OK, well that's a reasonable assumption, but it's a positive assumption, and the box and whisker plot thing is meant to have the extreme circumstances at either end.... in other words if this "inspired by handhelds" thing doesn't actually work. After all the PSP and Vita have at least shown that treting handhelds as consoles doesn't go down that well, why would it work the other way around?

You're right, it is a positive prediction. But the 50mil was based off the failure of the strategy, i.e. the strat would do 50mil if it failed :)

@bold. It's been proven to work on the Wii, so that's something we already know. Remember how trauma center was a DS game before coming out on the Wii? Metroid Prime Hunters -> Corruption, Brain Age. The Wii basically was like a DS with one screen less. Now with the WiiU the match is even closer, and the strategy even stronger (NSMBU at launch).

I'm optimistic about the worst case scenario. hehe

Trauma Center i'll give you, though it was more of a "new ways to play" thing than taking a traditionally handheld style game over to console.

Metroid you have the wrong way around... Hunters is a handheld adaption of a console like game.

Brain age, while fun, is at it's core a quiz game... and there have been many before on other portable devices as well as through TVs (quiz DVDs for example). The genius of Brain Age was to make it into a cross between a game and a self help tool (encouraging people trying to get a lower brain age score) with is not a trait specific to either hardware type.

I actually agree partly on the point, I don't think the WiiU is the right way to go. I do think that ignoring any GPU/CPU spec stuff, it could be an outstanding console for both casual players (who would like any app-like touch screen games, as well as motion controls and Nintendo's staple "for everyone" games like MK and SMB) and 'hardcore' players alike. However the fact is, developers of 'mature' games really wouldn't give a damn whatever Nintendo does, while publishers are either scared of competing against Nintendo, or for multiplatform games will only go so far to push them onto Nintendo's systems (ie the power disparity with WiiU to PS4/X720 needs to be far less than that with Wii to PS360 so that all multiplats can be ported easily without having to build seperate versions)

However, I don't believe the market will allow for a system to sell as low as 20 million anymore without it being from a company about to leave the business (which Nintendo is certainly not in that position) or from a new to the market company.... so even if Wii U is a 'failure' in the market compared to the next Sony/MS systems, I don't think it's possible for it to not surpass the N64, and I think it doubt that it won't manage at least SNES figures. It's pure guesswork to put an estimate on the lifetime sales of the Wii U so early, particularly without any info on it's competition... but based on the agressive strategies of Sony/MS all through this gen, I don't think it will match the Wii for sales potential, and would peg it around 60-70 million lifetime.

As I have done in past predictions, I will make it into a kind of box & whisker plot:

Minimum I believe possible <<< Expected sales range <<< Max I believe possible.

Wii U : 30 million <<< 60-70 million <<< 150 million

The 150 million scenario would involve the Wii U surprising everyone by selling like the Wii did, except with a year or two headstart it would build enough presence to force 3rd parties to give a damn. It's what i believe the Wii would be closing in on by now if the launches of the Wii and X360 were swapped.