Nintendo's screwed.

[archbrix]

TWRoO said:

archbrix said:

Gamerace said:
Nintendo has put themselves out of an audience except for diehard Nintendo fans which gives WiiU sales of 20M tops (similar to GC).

So, can I quote you as saying this?

Just curious, as I'm kinda keeping a mental note of all of the people who actually believe this.

I actually agree partly on the point, I don't think the WiiU is the right way to go. I do think that ignoring any GPU/CPU spec stuff, it could be an outstanding console for both casual players (who would like any app-like touch screen games, as well as motion controls and Nintendo's staple "for everyone" games like MK and SMB) and 'hardcore' players alike. However the fact is, developers of 'mature' games really wouldn't give a damn whatever Nintendo does, while publishers are either scared of competing against Nintendo, or for multiplatform games will only go so far to push them onto Nintendo's systems (ie the power disparity with WiiU to PS4/X720 needs to be far less than that with Wii to PS360 so that all multiplats can be ported easily without having to build seperate versions)

However, I don't believe the market will allow for a system to sell as low as 20 million anymore without it being from a company about to leave the business (which Nintendo is certainly not in that position) or from a new to the market company.... so even if Wii U is a 'failure' in the market compared to the next Sony/MS systems, I don't think it's possible for it to not surpass the N64, and I think it doubt that it won't manage at least SNES figures. It's pure guesswork to put an estimate on the lifetime sales of the Wii U so early, particularly without any info on it's competition... but based on the agressive strategies of Sony/MS all through this gen, I don't think it will match the Wii for sales potential, and would peg it around 60-70 million lifetime.

As I have done in past predictions, I will make it into a kind of box & whisker plot:

Minimum I believe possible <<< Expected sales range <<< Max I believe possible.

Wii U : 30 million <<< 60-70 million <<< 150 million

The 150 million scenario would involve the Wii U surprising everyone by selling like the Wii did, except with a year or two headstart it would build enough presence to force 3rd parties to give a damn. It's what i believe the Wii would be closing in on by now if the launches of the Wii and X360 were swapped.

What you said is all well and good, but I'm not disputing any of that.  What I find unrealistic is what I quoted:  That WiiU will only manage 20m -22m tops, which, judging by your post, you agree with me.

Personally, my prediction falls somewhere between yours and HappyD's:

WiiU:   45m  <<<  60m - 80m   <<<  125m