We all know the next COD is going to do about 5m on each console easy and have a HUGE opening week. There's just no doubt at all, Halo wont impact COD at all.

There is no such thing as a "casual gamer". That's an idiotic term that has been invented by the internet gaming community to refer to gamers who like games that the internet gaming community doesn't like. Hence the term "non-games". What an f'ing stupid term, "non-games" (not to mention "non-gamers"). How is, for instance, Tetris a non-game? How is Just Dance a non-game? How is Farmville a non-game? And yet, the internet gaming community uses the term "casual game" to refer to these games, nonsensically. "Casual" is a description of HOW one plays a game. One can play Halo casually, and one can play Farmville in a hardcore manner - indeed, many Farmville players are FAR more hardcore in their playing of the game than your typical gamer is for games like Halo, CoD, or Mass Effect.

More notably, the vast majority of people who buy games like CoD play them casually - they own it so that, every once in a while, they can pull it out and play a few matches of it. I use my brother as an example - he has quite a few games, but he would never call himself a gamer. Last generation, he liked playing Halo with his friends, and they'd get together for Halo nights... but otherwise, it would just be something he did if he couldn't find anything better to do. He is the typical FPS gamer - playing them casually.

Meanwhile, the Wii U is part of the next generation of consoles. Quite a few people out there are more technophiles than they are gamers, including many who play games like CoD. It is the technophiles who tend to like the newest software and the newest hardware, and are more likely than anybody other than the internet gaming community to preorder games more than four months before the game is due to release. These people are the ones that would definitely look at the Wii U to see what it is like, prior to making a decision on which version they would want to buy. And so, a significant bloc of preorders would be delayed until information about the Wii U version is available.

The Wii U doesn't just "give Nintendo fans" anything - that's the sort of short-sighted stupidity that the internet gaming community is known for - the same stupidity that was shown when the Wii was announced, and the internet gaming community mostly responded with "Nintendo's last console, will only appeal to Nintendo fans"... of course, once the system started selling well, it became "only appeals to casual gamers" - it became the new way to dismiss the Wii's success, in order to rationalise their hatred for Nintendo as a hardware company (many would happily say "I wish Nintendo would go third-party, so I can play their games", because few people are willing to say that Nintendo games aren't top-notch). The Wii U is intended, as with the Wii, to provide new experiences in general. Hence, for instance, ZombiU. Whether it will succeed is something that we'll have to wait to see, but the fact is, the Wii U version of games may be superior versions... especially if the most recent specs rumours are true.

You forget about the technophiles. Other than internet gaming community members, technophiles are the most likely to preorder games more than four months before release, and are much more likely to buy new hardware at or near launch.

You also forget that this is the first of the next generation of consoles, and thus people are more likely to "upgrade" in general, just as many people "upgraded" from PS2 to one of the current-gen consoles. Otherwise, you'd find that the vast majority of regular people would never buy new consoles, they'd just keep the ones they had - and the industry wouldn't challenge that, because of a massive portion of the market (regular people are the vast majority of the install base) wanting new games and not willing to upgrade unless absolutely necessary. Fortunately, most people do want to upgrade every once in a while. And I think you'd be surprised at how many people out there would want to play CoD with Wiimote controls, but didn't want to miss out on content and graphical quality for it (meaning, not willing to get the Wii versions, lacking in both content and graphics, but more than willing to look at Wii U). Wiimote controls for FPS are so much more intuitive than dual analog.

That is pretty much fact even in 2013 the next CoD will still do 10x better on PS3 and 360. I'm not a fanboy of any particular console i only own a 3DS and plan on buying the Wii U.

Again, without any actual justification for your claim, without arguments to back it up, I have no reason to think that your assertion is anything other than anti-fanboyism. Ownership of certain consoles isn't relevant to the point.

you keep jumping to different groups, who are technophiles are you talking about the people who care about OMG graphics?? Cause if you are, the COD series doesnt really push those types of visuals anyone, they are not taxing graphically(sans Wii and DS) and even then they have something called PC which can produce anything better looking than anything the consoles can put out including WIi U. NOt to mention the fact it also has a control scheme that is better than the dual analog sticks, but still sold way less than its PS360 brethren. Or are you reffering to the people who have to have every new damn thing that come out, yeah i can see that but than doesnt mean they will get COD or even most of the launch games. 

I dont even know where you're going with your 2nd paragraph. BUt if you look at the past releases, the difference between PS2 releasing, PS1 and SNES etc. is those systems launched with ORIGINAL games. Wii U is launching with at least half of its library consisting of games that have been released for months already or on consoles that have been available for years. Its funny you use the word "necessary", thats the point it isnt necessary to buy a Wii U to play the newest COD.

But lets get down to brass tacks, you keep using "people" who are these people? How much of them are they? What will the sales be like? If Wii U is a hit then I predict 2mil lifetime, if its ok 1mil. 

Technophile is a well-known term - people who like technology. It has nothing to do with graphics. Technophiles are relatively likely to get a Wii U either way... but they'll make their game decisions based on which system they think the game will be best on. Therefore, they'll wait until they see the Wii U version before they put money down on any version.

And you compare the launch lineup of Wii U with previous ones very poorly. Not only did the Wii also have that trait, but CoD is releasing roughly at the same time as the Wii U, and thus it isn't relevant to the point. If someone wants the best version of Black Ops 2, and the best version is on Wii U, and they're all available at roughly the same time, then they'll upgrade to the Wii U for it (assuming that their desire for the best version is strong enough to justify purchasing a system). Remember, the vast majority of people aren't so deep into gaming that they're going to buy the entire launch lineup of a console. All they need is a few titles to justify the purchase, and they do it. Black Ops 2, along with NSMBU and ZombiU could easily be enough, for instance. And the only time I used "necessary" is to demonstrate the absurdity of YOUR position, since YOU are the one asserting that people won't upgrade to the Wii U for Black Ops 2 because it isn't necessary.

I'm also not sure which use of "people" you're referring to, but the fact is, the number of people who would have a reason to be interested in the Wii U version is without a shadow of a doubt greater than the number of internet gaming community members. That most people online aren't waiting to see the Wii U version means nothing, and that's the point that I've been trying to emphasise. Normal people are less likely to preorder this early, with those that do being more likely to be technophiles that will be interested in getting the Wii U, and thus there will be a skew, no matter what, towards waiting to see the Wii U version, compared with previous entries in the series. The observation being made is that preorders for Black Ops 2 appear to be down compared with MW3.

Suppose that 1 million preorders were made at this point last year for MW3, and it's now only 900,000. It's not too difficult to believe that many of the other 100,000 are waiting to see the Wii U version before making their decision (or have already decided they want the Wii U version, but can't preorder it yet because preorders for that version aren't yet being taken - but that's less likely since we haven't seen it). Note that I used those numbers just for convenience, I don't know the exact scales of preorders at this moment vs what they were last year, just that some are asserting that they were higher at this time last year. This is the root of my assertion - that the difference in preorders is likely to be due to the possibility of the Wii U version being the "better" version (not the certainty, just the possibility). It's not exactly a controversial concept, that early preorders are more likely to be held off until there's more information available.

Even if the excess is waiting to see the Wii U version, it doesn't have to mean that the Wii U will sell more than 2 million, so even if your (in my opinion) lowball expectation is accurate, it isn't inconsistent with my assertion.

I guess we find out within a couple of months, when Activision actually show off the Wii U version, and are allowed to talk about its online, and preorders open up. If I'm right, and the Wii U version doesn't hold any special value, then the preorders for the 360 and PS3 versions will increase noticeably. If I'm right, and the Wii U version does, then Wii U preorders will be strong. If I'm wrong, not much will happen.

the vast majority of people are not that into gaming that they would buy a console at LAUNCH anyway. Its like your picking and choosing your own conclusions to suit your stance but they dont make sense.

I dont know where your getting internet people from cause i said no such thing. Normal people are less likely to buy a console at launch for one game, especially if that game will be on 4 different systems.

You believe that those 100,000 people are waiting for WIi U version. I think thats absurd. First off preorders are a terrible to go by anyway. 2nd the more likely scenario is those 100,000 people just got bored with the series, period. And you never answered my query about how much of these people will jump ship to WIi U for the game. If you are so sure they will, where are your numbers?

This is definitely me.  November is going to be an expensive month for me.  Ok, two games don't seem like a lot but at this moment it is for me.  Lol

The vast majority of people are not that into gaming that they would preorder a game four months before release anyway. We're talking about the portion that would do so - and that portion is more likely to buy a console at launch.

I use internet people as a comparative thing, because most people in these forum discussions draw conclusions about the market as a whole based on reactions on the internet - most people are not like those in these forum discussions.

I've been pretty clear from the beginning that I'm not saying they WILL go with the Wii U version. I said they're waiting to see the Wii U version before deciding which version to get. And while it's possible that those people got bored with the series, we don't yet have conclusive evidence of this, so I'm offering an alternative possibility - something that distinguishes Black Ops 2 from previous CoD titles.

And we're discussing preorders - that's the entire topic of the thread. So "going by preorders" isn't what we're doing - indeed, if you look back at what I've said in this thread, you'll see that I haven't once actually put forward a suggestion as to how well Black Ops 2 will do on the Wii U. That's because it's irrelevant to the discussion - what matters is the question of "why are preorders for Black Ops 2 apparently lower than they were for Modern Warfare 3". The OP offered that it's because MW3 was the peak, and BO2 won't sell as well. I offered an alternative possibility that people aren't preordering yet because they want more information first.

How many will "jump ship" for the Wii U version? I don't know. In terms of preorders, I'd imagine that we'll probably see total preorders across all three systems being somewhere around the MW3 preorders for PS3/360 - a bit higher if my offered possibility is accurate, a bit lower if not. The amount that "jump ship" will depend on how good the Wii U version looks once they show it off (which is meant to happen in August, as I understand it). Depending on what it looks like, I could see anywhere between a couple of hundred thousand to a few million, including those jumping ship, but not getting it at launch.

If the Wii U version is even slightly better than the PS3/360 versions (say, by being equal in visuals, etc, except for having a map function on the Upad and having Wiimote pointing functionality), then I see the Wii U version maybe managing 2-3 million... perhaps 4 million if it compares well against alternatives on the Wii U at and near launch. Of those, I'd expect somewhere around maybe 500,000 being those who switched from PS3/360, who likely would have bought a Wii U anyway. If the Wii U version somehow blows the other two away (unlikely), I could definitely see upwards of 8 million, of which a few million would be switchovers from PS3/360. As I noted, though, that's unlikely - the former is the more likely case, and my official prediction is 3.5 million by the end of 2013. I assume that's what you were asking for?