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oniyide on 05 July 2012
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Aielyn said:
oniyide said:
you keep jumping to different groups, who are technophiles are you talking about the people who care about OMG graphics?? Cause if you are, the COD series doesnt really push those types of visuals anyone, they are not taxing graphically(sans Wii and DS) and even then they have something called PC which can produce anything better looking than anything the consoles can put out including WIi U. NOt to mention the fact it also has a control scheme that is better than the dual analog sticks, but still sold way less than its PS360 brethren. Or are you reffering to the people who have to have every new damn thing that come out, yeah i can see that but than doesnt mean they will get COD or even most of the launch games.

I dont even know where you're going with your 2nd paragraph. BUt if you look at the past releases, the difference between PS2 releasing, PS1 and SNES etc. is those systems launched with ORIGINAL games. Wii U is launching with at least half of its library consisting of games that have been released for months already or on consoles that have been available for years. Its funny you use the word "necessary", thats the point it isnt necessary to buy a Wii U to play the newest COD.

But lets get down to brass tacks, you keep using "people" who are these people? How much of them are they? What will the sales be like? If Wii U is a hit then I predict 2mil lifetime, if its ok 1mil.

Technophile is a well-known term - people who like technology. It has nothing to do with graphics. Technophiles are relatively likely to get a Wii U either way... but they'll make their game decisions based on which system they think the game will be best on. Therefore, they'll wait until they see the Wii U version before they put money down on any version.

And you compare the launch lineup of Wii U with previous ones very poorly. Not only did the Wii also have that trait, but CoD is releasing roughly at the same time as the Wii U, and thus it isn't relevant to the point. If someone wants the best version of Black Ops 2, and the best version is on Wii U, and they're all available at roughly the same time, then they'll upgrade to the Wii U for it (assuming that their desire for the best version is strong enough to justify purchasing a system). Remember, the vast majority of people aren't so deep into gaming that they're going to buy the entire launch lineup of a console. All they need is a few titles to justify the purchase, and they do it. Black Ops 2, along with NSMBU and ZombiU could easily be enough, for instance. And the only time I used "necessary" is to demonstrate the absurdity of YOUR position, since YOU are the one asserting that people won't upgrade to the Wii U for Black Ops 2 because it isn't necessary.

I'm also not sure which use of "people" you're referring to, but the fact is, the number of people who would have a reason to be interested in the Wii U version is without a shadow of a doubt greater than the number of internet gaming community members. That most people online aren't waiting to see the Wii U version means nothing, and that's the point that I've been trying to emphasise. Normal people are less likely to preorder this early, with those that do being more likely to be technophiles that will be interested in getting the Wii U, and thus there will be a skew, no matter what, towards waiting to see the Wii U version, compared with previous entries in the series. The observation being made is that preorders for Black Ops 2 appear to be down compared with MW3.

Suppose that 1 million preorders were made at this point last year for MW3, and it's now only 900,000. It's not too difficult to believe that many of the other 100,000 are waiting to see the Wii U version before making their decision (or have already decided they want the Wii U version, but can't preorder it yet because preorders for that version aren't yet being taken - but that's less likely since we haven't seen it). Note that I used those numbers just for convenience, I don't know the exact scales of preorders at this moment vs what they were last year, just that some are asserting that they were higher at this time last year. This is the root of my assertion - that the difference in preorders is likely to be due to the possibility of the Wii U version being the "better" version (not the certainty, just the possibility). It's not exactly a controversial concept, that early preorders are more likely to be held off until there's more information available.

Even if the excess is waiting to see the Wii U version, it doesn't have to mean that the Wii U will sell more than 2 million, so even if your (in my opinion) lowball expectation is accurate, it isn't inconsistent with my assertion.

I guess we find out within a couple of months, when Activision actually show off the Wii U version, and are allowed to talk about its online, and preorders open up. If I'm right, and the Wii U version doesn't hold any special value, then the preorders for the 360 and PS3 versions will increase noticeably. If I'm right, and the Wii U version does, then Wii U preorders will be strong. If I'm wrong, not much will happen.

the vast majority of people are not that into gaming that they would buy a console at LAUNCH anyway. Its like your picking and choosing your own conclusions to suit your stance but they dont make sense.

I dont know where your getting internet people from cause i said no such thing. Normal people are less likely to buy a console at launch for one game, especially if that game will be on 4 different systems.

You believe that those 100,000 people are waiting for WIi U version. I think thats absurd. First off preorders are a terrible to go by anyway. 2nd the more likely scenario is those 100,000 people just got bored with the series, period. And you never answered my query about how much of these people will jump ship to WIi U for the game. If you are so sure they will, where are your numbers?