| oniyide said: the vast majority of people are not that into gaming that they would buy a console at LAUNCH anyway. Its like your picking and choosing your own conclusions to suit your stance but they dont make sense. I dont know where your getting internet people from cause i said no such thing. Normal people are less likely to buy a console at launch for one game, especially if that game will be on 4 different systems. You believe that those 100,000 people are waiting for WIi U version. I think thats absurd. First off preorders are a terrible to go by anyway. 2nd the more likely scenario is those 100,000 people just got bored with the series, period. And you never answered my query about how much of these people will jump ship to WIi U for the game. If you are so sure they will, where are your numbers? |
The vast majority of people are not that into gaming that they would preorder a game four months before release anyway. We're talking about the portion that would do so - and that portion is more likely to buy a console at launch.
I use internet people as a comparative thing, because most people in these forum discussions draw conclusions about the market as a whole based on reactions on the internet - most people are not like those in these forum discussions.
I've been pretty clear from the beginning that I'm not saying they WILL go with the Wii U version. I said they're waiting to see the Wii U version before deciding which version to get. And while it's possible that those people got bored with the series, we don't yet have conclusive evidence of this, so I'm offering an alternative possibility - something that distinguishes Black Ops 2 from previous CoD titles.
And we're discussing preorders - that's the entire topic of the thread. So "going by preorders" isn't what we're doing - indeed, if you look back at what I've said in this thread, you'll see that I haven't once actually put forward a suggestion as to how well Black Ops 2 will do on the Wii U. That's because it's irrelevant to the discussion - what matters is the question of "why are preorders for Black Ops 2 apparently lower than they were for Modern Warfare 3". The OP offered that it's because MW3 was the peak, and BO2 won't sell as well. I offered an alternative possibility that people aren't preordering yet because they want more information first.
How many will "jump ship" for the Wii U version? I don't know. In terms of preorders, I'd imagine that we'll probably see total preorders across all three systems being somewhere around the MW3 preorders for PS3/360 - a bit higher if my offered possibility is accurate, a bit lower if not. The amount that "jump ship" will depend on how good the Wii U version looks once they show it off (which is meant to happen in August, as I understand it). Depending on what it looks like, I could see anywhere between a couple of hundred thousand to a few million, including those jumping ship, but not getting it at launch.
If the Wii U version is even slightly better than the PS3/360 versions (say, by being equal in visuals, etc, except for having a map function on the Upad and having Wiimote pointing functionality), then I see the Wii U version maybe managing 2-3 million... perhaps 4 million if it compares well against alternatives on the Wii U at and near launch. Of those, I'd expect somewhere around maybe 500,000 being those who switched from PS3/360, who likely would have bought a Wii U anyway. If the Wii U version somehow blows the other two away (unlikely), I could definitely see upwards of 8 million, of which a few million would be switchovers from PS3/360. As I noted, though, that's unlikely - the former is the more likely case, and my official prediction is 3.5 million by the end of 2013. I assume that's what you were asking for?
