I think you have slightly unrealistic expectations of what the portable market is now. 

The DS and PSP generation wasn't the norm. It was a complete and utter aberration. It ended up with what? 220m or something? Prior to that we had the GBA at around 80m. Before that the Gameboy and gameboy colour at 120m and I guess the game gear fits in here at 11m. Now there were still some competitors but honestly they were mostly a few million at best. 

The DS and PSP generation was massive for handhelds. Given the rise of smartphones it is unlikley any dedicated handheld generation will be able to reach that point in the near future. However aiming for more in line with GBA / GB territory (So somewhere around 100m) is far more reasonable. 

The 3DS is doing fine. Especially for where it is in it's life cycle. It still has 2d mario and pokemon yet to come for it. Basically the two biggest franchises. Not to mention those rumours of the redesign this year. Selling 65k in a week with no releases (maybe there was something that didn't chart?) and the charts full of software on your platform is very healthy. 

Unrelated but something I feel is worth pointing out is that DQM had some stock problems. Iirc sell through in the first week was over 90% and it didn't get a proper second shipment. 

Don't forget MH 4!

The usual:

PSP(2011 YTD)= 1,040,345
PSP+PSV(2012)=705,383(-32.2%)

Looking ahead to Week 24, PSP did 31,796 in 2011.

3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=1,555,607
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=1,982,281(+27.4%)

Looking ahead to week 24, 3DS+DS did 51,544 in 2011.

All handhelds(2011 YTD)=2,595,952
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=2,687,664

"All handhelds" number in the coming months should increase. 3DS and Vita will both improve.

Top 50

01./00. [PS3] Tokyo Jungle (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.06.07} (¥4.980) – 110.309 / NEW
02./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry’s Wonderland 3D # (Square Enix) {2012.05.31} (¥5.490) – 83.329 / 596.512 (-84%)
03./00. [PSV] Mobile Suit Gundam Seed: Battle Destiny (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.06.07} (¥5.980) – 40.297 / NEW
04./02. [PS3] Dragons Dogma (Capcom) {2012.05.24} (¥7.990) – 34.184 / 419.208 (-59%)
05./03. [3DS] Mario Tennis Open (Nintendo) {2012.05.24} (¥4.800) – 24.030 / 167.154 (-42%)
06./04. [WII] Mario Party 9 (Nintendo) {2012.04.26} (¥5.800) – 17.253 / 417.643 (-12%)
07./07. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.800) – 9.390 / 1.614.505 (-6%)
08./00. [PSP] Storm Lover Kai!! # (D3 Publisher) {2012.06.07} (¥5.040) – 7.931 / NEW
09./09. [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening (Nintendo) {2012.04.19} (¥4.800) – 7.031 / 408.030 (-27%)
10./10. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) – 6.743 / 1.735.081 (-13%)
11./12. [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G # (Capcom) {2011.12.10} (¥5.800) – 6.146 / 1.471.805 (-12%)
12./05. [3DS] Guild 01 (Level 5) {2012.05.31} (¥3.980) – 5.297 / 20.087 (-64%)
13./06. [PS3] Jissen Pachislot Secrets! Fist of the North Star F: Seikimatsu Kyuuseishu Densetsu (Sega) {2012.05.31} (¥5.544) – 4.880 / 18.638 (-65%)
14./16. [WII] Wii Sports Resort with Wii Remote Plus # (Nintendo) {2010.11.11} (¥5.800) – 4.159 / 957.445 (-1%)
15./14. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games (Nintendo) {2012.03.01} (¥4.800) – 3.888 / 180.244 (-11%)
16./21. [WII] Wii Party # (Nintendo) {2010.07.08} (¥4.800) – 3.342 / 2.361.947
17./18. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) – 3.157 / 287.709 (-21%)
18./26. [3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} (¥4.800) – 2.568 / 559.947
19./22. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP the Best) (Capcom) {2011.09.22} (¥2.990) – 2.366 / 263.502
20./29. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800) – 2.264 / 3.573.260

21./13. [PSP] Uta no Prince-Sama: Debut # (Broccoli) {2012.05.24} (¥6.090)
22./25. [PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2012 (Konami) {2012.03.29} (¥5.980)
23./40. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Definitive Edition # (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.11.23} (¥5.040)
24./28. [3DS] Harvest Moon: A New Beginning (Marvelous AQL) {2012.02.23} (¥5.040)
25./27. [WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800)
26./33. [3DS] Cho-ricchi! Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisecchi (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.04.19} (¥5.040)
27./31. [WII] Kirby’s Return to Dream Land (Nintendo) {2011.10.27} (¥5.800)
28./23. [3DS] Minna no Ennichi (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.05.24} (¥3.990)
29./00. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 (Konami) {2011.11.03} (¥4.980)
30./00. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2012 (Konami) {2011.10.06} (¥7.980)
31./08. [PSP] Soukoku no Kusabi: Hiiro no Kakera 3 – Ashita e no Tobira # (Idea Factory) {2012.05.31} (¥6.090)
32./15. [360] Dragons Dogma (Capcom) {2012.05.24} (¥7.990)
33./38. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White # (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800)
34./20. [PSP] My Little Sister Can’t Be This Cute Portable Can’t Be Continuing # (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.05.17} (¥6.280)
35./42. [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 XL Edition (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.02.02} (¥4.980)
36./46. [WII] Family Fishing # (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.08.04} (¥5.040)
37./41. [3DS] G1 Grand Prix (Genki) {2012.05.24} (¥6.080)
38./39. [WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.10.20} (¥5.800)
39./47. [PS3] Battlefield 3 (Electronic Arts) {2011.11.02} (¥7.665)
40./00. [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) {2008.01.31} (¥6.800)
41./34. [3DS] Kingdom Hearts 3D -Dream Drop Distance- # (Square Enix) {2012.03.29} (¥6.090)
42./44. [PSP] Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (Rockstar Classics) (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2011.07.21} (¥2.500)
43./00. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) {2009.12.03} (¥5.800)
44./30. [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment (Atlus) {2012.05.17} (¥6.279)
45./45. [3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai # (Sega) {2012.03.08} (¥6.090)
46./11. [PSP] Abunai: Koi no Sousa Shitsu # (QuinRose) {2012.05.31} (¥6.300)
47./17. [PSP] BlazBlue: Continuum Shift Extend (Arc System Works) {2012.05.31} (¥5.040)
48./00. [PSP] Taiko no Tatsujin Portable DX (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.07.14} (¥5.229)
49./00. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 # (Square Enix) {2011.12.15} (¥7.980)
50./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 – Dubbed Edition (Square Enix) {2011.12.22} (¥7.980)

Harvest Moon is refusing to die.

See how much of a boost Vita gets when it gets games the Japanese actually care about?

All Vita really needs is games.

I expect a huge boost for last weeks numbers since Persona 4 launched with ~200 points on COMG chart.

Good 3DS number even with huge drop from last week. Vita got a little boost too with one game. It needs more japan oriented games to get a decent weekly sale WW.

A few k, yeah. But it can't sustain it.

I'd imagine that the Vita will be at 15-20k, for a week, then back down to 10-13k after its launch, before returning to its 5-6k a few weeks later.

I don't think so the release of game in Vita improved i think Vita will do 35-40k in the week of Persona 4 then it sale will down without returning to 5-6k level for 2 week then MGSCollection will out and the new color will boost PSVita another time.

Then in July we will have 4 PSVita Game Doruko and resistance but will not boost Vita and Time Travelers et Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2012  witch i think will make a boost of 1k-2k  then in august  we will have the next big boost with Next Hatsune Miku Project Diva and  the new IP of  Nippon Ichi ,for septembre we will have Little Battler eXperience W.

I predict that Vita won't going less then 10k for any week in this year.

No way will the Vita increase 200-300% on the launch of one game. And the other games are pretty minor and won't make an impact, bar a couple k for one week. It'll be back at around 6k come July/August, especially the NSMB2/DQX launch week...

Things are looking up, though. I'll give you that.

If Gundam was able to boost 6k i don't know why Persona 4 can't boost 15-20k vita.