Suppose for a moment that the Wii is a fad ...

After 6 months of dominating the PS3 and XBox 360 in sales we have started to see a dramatic shift of development resources towards the Wii; after another 6 months (including amazing holiday sales) every major publisher in the world will focus their development on the Wii. By the time the "fad" begins to fade the Wii will have 2 to 4 times as many exclusive games  released in a given timeframe than either the PS3 or XBox 360; this (of course) will result in it having 2 to 4 times as many good/great exclusive games released for it in any given timeframe. These games will result in the Wii selling better than the PS3 and XBox 360 because it is a better gaming system.

The thing that never seems to be understood by PS3 fans is that gaming system momentium doesn't change quickly. Once one platform has aquired the majority of exclusive third party support the console war is over ...

Yup, just like the PSP. And you mean "PS3 sales will start to increase" - not start to overtake. For the PS3 to outsell the Wii, it has to outsell it on a weekly basis - and just like the PSP, *that* may not happen (if ever) for 2-3 years.

By which time the Wii will have 2-3x the install base of the PS3 (and a 20m+ lead). I'll settle for that if I was Nintendo ;)

(and around 2010, as the PS3 hits a decent price point - the Wii II is released - with similar specs to the 360/PS3). 

 uhmmm...

I really can't remeber two console launched in the same period that did like inyour vision...

just ps1 and saturn but saturn didn't have such numbers like wii has on ps3... 

 last week in Japan

HW ratio: 4 to 1
wii 63,775
ps3 13,806



SW  ratio: 6 to 1
wii  120,450
ps3   19,436


last week in America

HW ratio: 3.8 to 1
wii 70,570
ps3 18,655



SW  ratio: 5 to 1
wii  429,694
ps3   86,088

and weeks like these are more and more...

I hope for sony that "nintendo fad" will not continue like this for many weeks before "sony-super-mega-maybe-in-the-future-sells" 

ps3 like psp???

eternum secundus?? 

Yes, of course, everyone will stop making PS3 games...The 360 and PS3 will be just fine.  

No but fewer games will made for those systems. look what happened to the geneisis, Master System, turbographx 16, Sega Saturn, N64, GC, and XBOX. they each got a few good sometimes great games at the end of their cycle but they all dies earlier and had much less support than their competition NES,SNES,PS1,PS2.

I can see the Wii slowing down rather quick in the next few months. Its only good for parties. If someone you  know threws a party every week and has a Wii why buy one. Theres like 3 games worth playing single player for (and if you own a gamecube by Twilgiht Princess for that instead its honestly better).

multiplay games are more fun than asocial games like japan rpgs...

somebody said time ago...

I agree...

I got bored of japan rpgs in 90's...

people that play most only single player games have something insane:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori

While many people feel the pressure of the outside world, and may feel uncomfortable in public (or "social anxiety"), a hikikomori reacts by complete social withdrawal to avoid all outside pressure. In some cases, they may lock themselves into their bedroom or another room of their parent's house for prolonged periods of time, sometimes measured in years. They usually have few, or no friends. A hikikomori's days are characterized by long spells of sleeping, while their nighttime hours are often spent watching TV, extensively playing computer games, surfing the Internet, reading, or other non-social activities.

This refusal to participate in society and fulfill their expected roles makes hikikomori an extreme subset of a much larger group of the younger Japanese generation that includes parasite singles and freeters. All three groups seem to be rejecting the current social norms society has placed upon them in their own unique ways, with lifestyles considered deviant by society at large.

The withdrawal from society usually starts gradually. Affected individuals may appear unhappy, lose their friends, become insecure, shy, and talk less. Those in their teens may be bullied at school, which, atop the already high pressures of school and family, may be the final trigger for the withdrawal.

 thats you.. I prefer both multiplayer games and single player games. I love JRPGs, Unreal Tournament but HATE Halo and Wii Sports. I have a social life. I go out to parties. Theres tons more like me. What was your point in saying this.. it has nothing to do with what I said. I said if your friend throws parties and has a Wii then dont by it since its fun watching people play single-player games. Remember multiplayer started because people learned to share the controller. 

They won't stop making games for the PS3 but the PS3 would have (dramatically) reduced support as compared to the PS2.

Consider that by January 1st 2008 it is plausable the Wii could sell 18 Million to 20 Million consoles while the PS3 could be sitting at 6 Million to 8 Million consoles sold. These higher sales will mean that publishers will project that it is possible to sell 2 to 3 times as many units on the Wii with development costs being potentially 1/2 to 1/4 that of the PS3 meaning that their potential return on investment is 4 to 12 times as large on the Wii as it is on the PS3; you don't need much business training to know what platform is going to be more popular to develop for.

Certainly the PS3 will continue to get support, but the vast majority of games will be multiplatform games released on the XBox 360, PC and PS3.

yet I brought mine for FFXIII, ratchet and Clank and the ability to play PS2 games(never owned a PS2). I like the Blu-Ray drive(I work with video ) and have enjoyed blast factor very much so. However I have also owned a Dreamcast and N64. they never won their generations not even close yet they had the best games of their generation on them Shenmue and goldeneye FTW!

 Getting a huge lead means that most third parties develop games for that system with that systems strengths in mind. A lot of titles get ported over to the other systems but they are usually washed down and never take advantage of that systems strengths. Sometimes companies will develop games specifically for a lesser selling console but only do so for a focused demographic these games sometimes end up being classics. Unlike Nintendo Sonys first party can't carry the system however luckily for Sony many companies had put in a lot of time developing games for them prelaunch that will be released to help make back revenue that was spent. unfortuantely for Sony most of this games are going multiplatform and more games are getting announced for the Wii. However because of the rush of games that will be finishing in September through June of next year it could spawn a comeback. Unfortuanately it will be going against a very strong Wii with Wii fitness, MP3, Super Smash Brothers, Super Mario Galaxy during the same time period. It will also be facing a very hardcore 360 with Halo 3, mass effect, and Bioshock. With GTA being multiplatform it is gonna take Home and Ratchet and a much more generous consumer to get back on track.