I don't know about outselling the Wii U + PS4 combined, but I do think Microsoft can push Sony into a much smaller piece of the hardcore pie.
Right now the HD market is split basically 50/50 between MS and Sony, I think MS will try to push their share up to 70%.
They can outspend the hell outta Sony on exclusives and marketing and better hardware at this point. Sony is in trouble IMO.
| crissindahouse said: ninpie, only you buy a mac with 8 years to surf on the internet. but you will drive a ferrari with 20 so you can't see this as standard lol |
Err... I don't really get what you are saying. XD
It's like I've stepped into an alternate reality where the company with the best selling handheld this generation, the best selling handheld last generation, the second highest selling home console of all time (despite weak sales in the last 18 months), the best selling and most recognized IPs in the industry, apparently decent third party support for a change, a probable year head start in this generation and wodges of cash in the bank is suddenly the underdog again.
I mean anything COULD happen, this generation more than any other, but I think people are placing too much stock in what's popular in their neck of the woods at the moment. I think if Sony and Nintendo have shown anything in the last few years it that loyalty means nothing and this momentum that the Xbox360 currently has could quickly evaporate in the generational transition. MS are yet to make any kind of impact in Japan, ever, and hardware-wise still trail the Wii by a significant margin in the US despite a year head start.
Anyway, still too little is known about any of the new systems for such predictions. Give me a lack-luster Nintendo E3, an impressive behind-closed-doors 720 demo and Sony silent on PS4 and then you've got some fuel for this fire.
| man-bear-pig said:
1.) The Wii U's design is difficult for devs and so it will recieve little 3rd party support in the short run, and even less 3rd party support in the long run. Due to this lack of 3rd party support, sales will be low, and will continue to be low. This viscious circle of lack of 3rd party support and subsequent lower sales will cause the Wii U to have significantly lower sales than its predecessor. |
Well Nintendo has shown a complete inability to sustain a platform almost exclusively by itself, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 2.) The PS4 will not have the same percieved (by the general public) graphical advantage that it had over the 360 this gen, as they will release closely to each other (and therefore have similar specs). Also, if Sony postpone the release of the PS4 in order to get a graphical advantage over the 720 then this will be hugely detrimental to sales as it will give time for the 720 to establish itself in the market, so no matter which strategy they choose, they can't have the same benefit that they had in the previous gen. |
The 360's one-year launch advantage did prove definitive in establishing an insurmountable lead over its competitors, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 3.) Tablets and smartphones are the future, and this is because consumers are looking for as much of their entertainment requirements as possible packed into one device. The Xbox 360 is currently building up a large entertainment package with apps, music, games, movies etc. and im sure they will continue this strategy into the next gen. |
Microsoft's competitors are clearly not attempting to do the same thing, especially not going so far as to openly ape a tablet, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 4.) One of the main selling points of the PS3 was that it had internet browsing capabilities, and in the next gen both the 720 and the PS4 will come with internet browsers, but the 720's will be superior if the new IE from microsoft is all it's cracked up to be. |
The PS3's ability to do what your PC/phone already do was indeed its most touted and recognizable strength, broadcast loudly in all the advertisements, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 5.) The main selling point of the PS3 was that you didn't have to pay for online gaming like you did with the 360. Next gen though, I suspect that Sony will introduce an online fee, as they cannot repeat the same mistakes they did with the PS3 and sustain $10bn losses. This will further shift the market in support of the 720. |
There is no concrete evidence this is true aside from Sony being...Sony. So...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 6.) The Xbox 720 will more likely launch at lower price point than the PS4, and with all the advantages the 720 will have over the PS4, consumers will likely choose to purchase the 720. |
There is no solid evidence behind this statement, and in fact it implicitly contradicts point 2, but I'm on a roll now so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 7.) As companies, both Nintendo and Sony are struggling financially and so wont have the same budgetary capabilities as Microsoft have in terms of marketing. |
Microsoft has clearly demonstrated a willingness to put its entire resources behind its Xbox branch, and Nintendo in particular isn't sitting on billions of dollars in reserve, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 8.) The Wii U lacks the same gimmick that the Wii had during it's launch period. When the Wii was released the controls were new and exciting and many people purchased Wii's to experience this innovation. However, the Wii U is launching with tablet technology, which is already established in the market, and so the Wii U will not benefit for the "curiosity" sales which the Wii had. |
It took over two years, but the Wii's gimmick did finally wear off. That gimmick was the system's only strength, so...I agree!
| man-bear-pig said: 9.) I think people will begin to get tired of the constant stream of Mario games being released, and I think the series will experience a significant decline in sales. This will cause the Wii U to lose one of its major selling points. |
This has to happen some decade, right? So...I agree!
In conclusion, I agree with everything you say, Mr. Pachter! Is it the man, the bear, or the pig part of you that has all these great insights?
noname2200 said:
Well Nintendo has shown a complete inability to sustain a platform almost exclusively by itself, so...I agree!
The 360's one-year launch advantage did prove definitive in establishing an insurmountable lead over its competitors, so...I agree!
Microsoft's competitors are clearly not attempting to do the same thing, especially not going so far as to openly ape a tablet, so...I agree!
The PS3's ability to do what your PC/phone already do was indeed its most touted and recognizable strength, broadcast loudly in all the advertisements, so...I agree!
There is no concrete evidence this is true aside from Sony being...Sony. So...I agree!
There is no solid evidence behind this statement, and in fact it implicitly contradicts point 2, but I'm on a roll now so...I agree!
Microsoft has clearly demonstrated a willingness to put its entire resources behind its Xbox branch, and Nintendo in particular isn't sitting on billions of dollars in reserve, so...I agree!
It took over two years, but the Wii's gimmick did finally wear off. That gimmick was the system's only strength, so...I agree!
This has to happen some decade, right? So...I agree!
In conclusion, I agree with everything you say, Mr. Pachter! Is it the man, the bear, or the pig part of you that has all these great insights? |
Oh My God, best post of the month! (Possibly year!)
Very bold.
e=mc^2
Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)
| Jay520 said: seems plausible |
Only if all his nine points come true which is very unlikely. Overall its way to early to tell. Also the Wii U will have a year headstart and depending on launch price and games available in the first year it could have the potential to have a huge lead over the 720 or whatever MS next console will be named. If rumors are true the Wii U will be more like the PS3 and 360 which could lead to a lot of early adapters which makes it even less plausible.
the only way microsoft can even finish a gen in 1st place is if they have like a 5 year headstart on both sony and nintendo.
Japan alone will prevent this from happening
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