How does one determine numbers of systems anyway?

Shipped? Sold? and do not forget the replacements.

I started a thread about the products that sony makes as being defective(lets not get into that on this thread)I replaced my psone and my ps 2.

Now I seen a thread that said Best buy and other retailers are counting returned defected systems a new sale when they are exchanged. I seen another thread and today talking about ps 2 doing great in sales(how many of these are same ps2 owners). On the former thread about sony/defects there were a lot of people on here that had replaced their ps2 at least once or twice.

My question is, If that many ps2's are replaced(out of warranty because an individual has a library)and that many xbox 360's were infated to show they had well over 10 million, then what are the real numbers????

We know nintendo is more than likely dead on, especially with manufacturing.

Nintendo is (all in all) known for its Quality products (Seal 'o Quality), example: N64: Working fine.

My friends SNES: Still doin its thing...

My Gameboy Pocket from (1994...?! If i recall correct) It's a little dusty but its still working fine...

And according to numberous sources numbers of defect PS2 systems seems to variete between 31-42%...

Example: My friend got a PS2, it got broke after 1.5 years, he got a new one (Free by Sony)...

Another Example: Some classmate that lives in my neighbourhood has got 3 PS2's, two of them got broke... (1 was sent for free by Sony, the other wasn't under guaranteement or something so he had to pay it himself...)

He (^This guy up here^) Also HAD(!!!) A PSP, it also got broke and he got a NDSlite For Christmas (Actually is was Santa Claus, but thats because we live in Holland...)

That says something about Sony and their products, however i know for sure This guy up here (My classmate that lives in my neighbourhood) was very, VERY UNLUCKY, however, Sony's stuff tends to get broke often... (Not everything, just refering to PS2...)

If the percentage is correct, that means that the total number thus far would need to be deducted by 31-42%, still makes it a decent seller, but microsoft are in the same boat with the inflated numbers, anyone wanna take a stab at actual ps2's sold? A lot of people say its the best selling system/dominated the wii etc.

Can someone post the adjusted numbers?Or take a stab?

 Can you provide us with these sources please?

I'll take a quick stab at last generation's numbers.  Let's say that 1% of all consoles each year are replacement units of all units sold to date.  (Could be due to a hardware failure that was due to poor design, excessive use, accident, etc.  This also assumes that some people may choose to not replace their systems or buy a used console as a replacement.)  If we look at sales each year, we'd get a picture like this:

March 2000 - PS2 - 1.41M - 14K units sold as replacements

March 2001 - PS2 - 10.6M - 106K

March 2002 - PS2 - 28.7M - 287K - GC - 3.8M - 38K - Xbox - 3.1M - 31K

March 2003 - PS2 - 51.2M - 512K - GC - 9.6M - 96K - Xbox - 8.6M - 86K

March 2004 - PS2 - 71.3M - 713K - GC - 14.6M - 146K - Xbox - 14.5M - 145K

March 2005 - PS2 - 87.5M - 875K - GC - 18.5M - 185K - Xbox - 20.7M - 207K

March 2006 - PS2 - 103.7M - 1M  - GC - 20.9M - 209K - Xbox - 24.2M - 242K

So through March 2006, that would provide a conservative estimate of 3.507M of the PS2's 103.7M shipped number as replacements.  You'd have 674,000 GameCube's replaced and 711,000 replacement Xboxes.  This is of course a real rough estimate and there could be a number of other factors that play into these numbers including the redesign of the PS2 (which probably swayed a few people to buy a new console even if their system was already working), actual failure rates of the systems, price of a used versus new system, etc.  

A more aggressive estimate may assume that a greater percentage of systems fail as they get older.  Assuming 1% of consoles fail within the first year and that number increases 1% each year (so 2% of total system sold two years ago fail, etc.), you'd have numbers like this:

March 2000 - PS2 - 1.41M - 14K units sold as replacements

March 2001 - PS2 - 10.6M - 120K

March 2002 - PS2 - 28.7M - 421K - GC - 3.8M - 38K - Xbox - 3.1M - 31K

March 2003 - PS2 - 51.2M - 1.05M - GC - 9.6M - 134K - Xbox - 8.6M - 117K

March 2004 - PS2 - 71.3M - 2.17M - GC - 14.6M - 356K - Xbox - 14.5M - 324K

March 2005 - PS2 - 87.5M - 3.09M - GC - 18.5M - 637K - Xbox - 20.7M - 617K

March 2006 - PS2 - 103.7M - 6.64M - GC - 20.9M - 1.13M - Xbox - 24.2M -1.12M

This formula indicates that 13.5M or about 13% of the PS2's 103.7M shipped number were replacements.  (2.3M for GameCube and 2.2M for Xbox.) Of course this assumes that 28% of the consoles Sony sold before March 2000 have since been replaced.

I believe the actual numbers lie somewhere in the middle of both estimates.  While significant, I still don't think that really puts Sony's dominance of last generation in question.  With this generation's console war still young and close, every unit counts.

Thanks for the insight, its seems legit.

What's the point? If somebody's console breaks and he still is happy with it and buys another one there's no reason to discount that 2nd system. It doesn't matter why people buy it as long as they buy it. Disclosure: I never had a system breaking on me. You just have to sell them on time.

This is all sort-of irrelevant. What are trying to measure anyway? What do these numbers matter?

 - measure company (division) profit - that is a pretty good indicator of things

 - measure games sold - that is a great indicator. Usually people who buy games actually play them :)

 - measure total units shipped - indicates how many are being manufactured/sold by console makers

...

People buy consoles for lots of reasons. Presents, replacements, first console, media centre, etc.

I think a great indicator is "Number of people CURRENTLY USING a console (i.e. within a week period)" - but that's impossible to measure, outside of game sales. 

Does it really matter is 80% of PS2 owners never use there consoles anymore? Anyone ever wonder why game sales GO DOWN as the total install base for a console GOES UP? (look at long-term PS2 sales in Japan - strongest game sales were at launch!).

The point is obvious. Multiple consoles sold to the same person does not increase your userbase.

Adjusting figures to take into account the failure rate of the various consoles seems perfectly valid, but I'll agree that it doesn't change the fact that Sony won the last gen hands-down.

Makes me wonder what the exact userbase of the 360 is? Maybe 500K less?

*edit* Why is this in the Off Topic section? Surely this belongs in the Sales Discussion board? 

The 360.... I would like some accurate numbers on that. I got my first 360 for Christmas 2006, and I am now on my second 360.