The problem is that the sales in 2012 are really completely irrelevant to the topic, as it's discussing lifetimes sales.

Additionally, using the lifetime attach rate for a game to calculate is never really a good idea to get an accurate result. A machine with more sales will always have lower attach rates for its games. Games also have far higher attach rates early on in systems' lives than they do when the generation is finished.

In figuring the 2012 sales of NSMB2, comparing it to NSMB on the DS makes a lot more sense. It's made even more obvious by the fact that NSMB DS released under nearly identical settings to the one NSMB2 is launching under.

- Both launched in the middle of the year (May-June for NSMB, August for 3DS, not a big difference in terms of sales)
-  Both launched on similar installed bases (19 million when NSMB launched in USA, 20 mill when it had launched worldwide, versus 3DS at 17 million plus whatever it sells until august).

These factors slightly favour the DS version, but keep in mind that both the previous major 3DS games (MK7, 3DLand) both saw better openings than the big early DS games (for Mario Kart, it's 3.9 million in December alone for Mario Kart 7, and 2.7 million in December and half of November for Mario Kart DS)

How you count the different favours for each may depend a little, but selling roughly as much as NSMB DS did in its launch year seems quite obvious.

In total, NSMB DS sold 8.2 million in its launch year (2006). That's most likely more or less going to be what NSMB2 sells in 2012.

That would support the 8 million figure if NSMB2 has a 30%+ attachment, which is likely since its still an early game, but it won't see that later. Nintendo could if they support it, sell 20+ million after a few years. This is a really hard question to predict without knowing what those Vita titles are.

wow... that is the funniest list of "innovations" I have ever seen in my entire life

and I must admit, I lost my shit at "4 player simultaneous gameplay" thank based god I wasn't drinking water when I saw that

Why the laughter? Some are defined as overall innovations to the genre and some, like 4player, are meant for SMB only.

debate a Nintendo fan....about innovation, first you have to bring yourself to accept the harsh realization of what the word ACTUALLY means, but then if you did, there would be no need for debate, because you have never made that silly post to begin with

and for what's it's worth I agree with you about the first one, the original SMB did in fact define that generation of platformers

User has been moderated for this post - Kantor

Stating that every Mario Platformer has innovated a lot is probably overstating it, but claiming that the series never innovates is a far sillier thing to say. It's easy to forget the brilliant things that happened with each Mario platformer, because we have all of that now. Super Mario Bros, Super Mario Bros. 3 and Super Mario World all mixed up the style of the game, and influenced all platformers to come.

Then, Super Mario 64 did the same to 3D platformers as Super Mario Bros. did to the 2D platformers. Nearly all 3D platformers are made in its image.

Those 4 games are, arguably, 4 of the most important platformers in the history of platformers, because they innovated, and the innovation ended up being successful. The key with those games was that they innovated in an incredibly successful way, so that the innovation ended up being the base for nearly all future games in the genre.

The later Mario games (Sunshine, Galaxy, Galaxy 2, New Super Mario Bros, New Super Mario Bros Wii) haven't had the same level of successful innovation. Sunshine and Galaxy definitely tried out some fun stuff, but little of it is going to stick or change the 3D platformer world.

But that's little reason to state that the Super Mario franchise as a whole hasn't innovated things, because it definitely has.

I think he meant was that,  NSMB2 will sell twice as the top 10 PSV games announced at E3.

OT: Rol has gone soft, I fully support the multiplier addition. 1.5x a conservative one, 2x a more bolder one. >2x, for trolling purposes.

hey I want this bet,
Reward = sig ownership - for a year

the top 10 vita titles will outsell NSMB2, some ppl claim 2x for BSMB2 haha
Who is game enough to except this bet?

You're making a  pretty rubbish bet here. Consider that NSMB2 is going to sell for years, so the Vita games will have to sell >35 million, or you can't claim victory until several years in the future. Meanwhile, if the vita games announced at E3 don't start out well, NSMB 2 can be announced the winner by the end of 2012.

I'll take the bet if nobody else does. In the event that you win, though, you'll have to keep it something simple, which for instance means no gifs, as I'm opposed to gifs in signatures.

I find that rather unlikely, though, so the result of the bet will most likely just be me removing your self-loving from your sig and leaving it blank.

(I'll hapilly step aside if someone else is interested in the bet, I have little interest in sig bets in general)

why not do a "NSMB 2 will outsell the top 10 selling PSV games combined.lifetime." prediction or are you too afraid?