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Pineapple on 13 May 2012
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Chark said:
brendude13 said:
Chark said:
NSMB had a saturation rate of 18.37% on the DS. Assuming there will be 25 million 3DS consoles by the end of the year, NSMB2 will sell 4,592,500 copies.

The Vita with an install base of 8 million at years end would require the 10 games to average 460k, requiring a saturation of 5.75% each. The current average software saturation rate of the Vita's current top 10 is 8.7% meaning that the 10 new games combined will sell 6,960,000.

For all of the possible factors that could effect this; such as NSMB2 having a saturation rate of 30%+, several giant titles hitting Vita, or a larger hardware base for Vita, it is really hard to tell. These number are just based on is all of these games came out in august. Lifetimes sales could be quite different, but it depends on the titles. NSMB2 will have legs and probably will 10+mil by the time its done. I'm going to have to go with an unlikely, but it all depends on those titles.

Wow, you really did some research.


Thanks. I try to use the data when I can. If NSMB2 has the saturation rate of Mario 3D land, it will sell 8 million though. It could since there still isnt' that many big 3DS games, but among more software choices a mario game is competiting with a mario game, and therefore saturation has less of a chance to stay high. It will be a close call, but that's mostly because we don't know what those Vita games will be.


The problem is that the sales in 2012 are really completely irrelevant to the topic, as it's discussing lifetimes sales.

Additionally, using the lifetime attach rate for a game to calculate is never really a good idea to get an accurate result. A machine with more sales will always have lower attach rates for its games. Games also have far higher attach rates early on in systems' lives than they do when the generation is finished.

In figuring the 2012 sales of NSMB2, comparing it to NSMB on the DS makes a lot more sense. It's made even more obvious by the fact that NSMB DS released under nearly identical settings to the one NSMB2 is launching under.

- Both launched in the middle of the year (May-June for NSMB, August for 3DS, not a big difference in terms of sales)
-  Both launched on similar installed bases (19 million when NSMB launched in USA, 20 mill when it had launched worldwide, versus 3DS at 17 million plus whatever it sells until august).

These factors slightly favour the DS version, but keep in mind that both the previous major 3DS games (MK7, 3DLand) both saw better openings than the big early DS games (for Mario Kart, it's 3.9 million in December alone for Mario Kart 7, and 2.7 million in December and half of November for Mario Kart DS)

How you count the different favours for each may depend a little, but selling roughly as much as NSMB DS did in its launch year seems quite obvious.

In total, NSMB DS sold 8.2 million in its launch year (2006). That's most likely more or less going to be what NSMB2 sells in 2012.