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Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2012 NPD 360 HW 236k, PS3 175k, Wii 91k

Adinnieken on 11 May 2012
Soundwave said:
Jazz2K said:
One player that has yet to steal market from the handhelds is Windows 8 Tablet. People will say whatever they want but having a tablet with windows and xbox live integrated into it will entice people to get that instead of a gaming dedicated device. If I could play XBLA games on said tablet I don't see why I would need either a DS or a Vita... and buttons are not a good reason.

Windows, Android and Apple are the way to go imo, Sony and Nintendo needs to come up with something similar.


A Windows/XBox tablet with some discreet physical controls on it ... could be a game changer.

I think if it gained market traction, Apple's hand would then be forced to focus on dedicated gaming controls (if they aren't already thinking about this ... why is the Apple head honcho seen leaving Valve HQ?)

Windows 8 being Windows, you can actually add an Xbox 360 controller.  Microsoft would just need to replace the dongle they currently sell with a much smaller one.  I know that isn't quite what you were referring to, but still that could easily be done.

 





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KillerMan on 11 May 2012

Terrible terrible numbers... Kinda funny that Japanese game industry is the only one doing relatively good at the moment. US&UK and rest of Europe literally crashing. Well I think this picture kinda explains that....

'

Nintendo made industry look bigger than it really is. Now when all Nintendo platforms are crashing we are seeing huge dive.



Lostplanet22 on 11 May 2012

Is it me or is the decline only for USA? What about the European countries? UK/France/Germany?



 

Adinnieken on 11 May 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:

That's just a strawman arguement, in this case the percentile change doesn't show how much vgchartz has overtracked the 360 compared to the ps3 any better then just posting the actual numbers.

This month in america vgchartz has overtracked the 360 by 52,000 which is 22% overtracked.

The ps3 is overtracked anything from 22,000 to 54,000 which is 11%-32% overtracked.

Using the actual real numbers the gap of overtracking is either roughly the same or in the Ps3's favour. Using the Percentile numbers it could be above, below or the same and nobody has a clue.

I think we have a clue....

But more importantly, the 360 has 47% market share which represents a very good place to be going forward.  This NPD looks bad for all but CLEARLY it looks better for MS than anyone else in the home console market.

The problem here is that the NPD numbers are just the United States and VGChartz tracks the entirety of the Americas.  There's no way to gauge whether or not VGChartz over or undertracks until the quarterly reports, at which point we then go into the Shipped vs. Sold debate.

VGChartz numbers are guidance, they aren't the last word in sales.  For people to base their fanboy dedication on the numbers that VGChartz comes up with is like beliviing in an all-powerful being that lives in the sky.  VGChartz numbers are one thing, one guide.  NPD numbers are another guide, albeit a more accurate guide to a more specific market.

I would liken the NPDs to a Frommer's Travel Guide.  It may not provide you with everything you could possibly do in a country, but it provides the most accurate picture of what is available to do.  Where as VGChartz is like using the Internet as a travel guide.  You're going to get a lot more information, some of it great, some of it not so great.  It's only as accurate as the sources it has available to it, so you get what you pay for.



cookingyourmama on 11 May 2012
slowmo said:
pezus said:
slowmo said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
360 relatively good (market share), but in absolute terms not very good.

PS3 and Wii poor.

All overtracked, PS3 and especially Wii quite heavily in % terms.

Adjustments will be incoming for PS3 and possibly Wii too following this and the Sony shipment numbers.

Next gen required...

Errr the 360 is overtracked more than the ps3 this month in terms of raw numbers.

He said they were all overtracked and that the Wii particularly so, no mention of the 360 being overtracked more or less than the PS3.

He only mentioned adjustments for PS3 and Wii because it is on regards to the recent Sony shipping numbers.  I think you've jumped the gun in your eagerness to bash him and should read his post again. 

The 360 probably will need adjusting too but the issue is masked in the overall numbers by the poor tracking of sales in the EU for the 360.  I think the issue with the 360 is we overtrack it in the US and undertrack in the EU consistantly, but thats just my opinion. 

Comparing VGC Europe sales with the numbers from Nintendo the tracking wasn't poor at all. What was it, 100k under for the whole quarter?

Which is why I stated it was just my opinion.  Data generally seems to point the overall sales figures we have for 360 are about correct, the issue seems to be where those sales occur.  At the end of the day I said it was my opinion as it's marginal but I stand by the fact that I suspect we are undertracking in the EU and overtracking in the US.  Adjustments in the future are the only way to prove me right though.  Perhaps poor was the wrong word to use I conceed though, I should have just said "due to undertrakcing of EU sales for the 360 imo".

Don't be childish Cookingyourmama, someone liking a brand or game enough to use the art as a avatar doesn't instantly make their opinion stereotypically a certain type.  On the point you seem to be making that VG Chartz overtracks the 360 every month, could you post the last 5 months VG CHartz and NPD numbers for PS3 and 360 to prove your case please, I'm not so sure you have a point at all but I'll happily conceed if you're right.

 

Right first off i would like to say that in no way do i think the numbers on this site are deliberately biased in anyway, it's just that this site has to work with limited data and possibly the formulas they use need working on as well but when it comes to american NPD data and Vgchartz data, nearly every single month the 360 comes off much better vs the ps3 compared to the reaility of NPD's actual numbers. So here as you've asked for it are the last 5 months worth of data before Vgchartz made adjustments:

December 2011

360) VGC - 2,830,000 / NPD - 1,700,000 = 1,130,000 overtracked
ps3) VGC -1,252,000 / NPD - 936,000 = 316,000 overtracked

January 2012

360) VGC - 403,000 / NPD - 270,000 = 133,000 overtracked
ps3) VGC - 258,000 / NPD - 190,000 = 68,000 overtracked

February 2012

360) VGC - 337,000 / NPD - 426,000 = 89,000 undertracked
ps3) VGC - 238,000 / NPD - 360,000 = 122,000 undertracked

March 2012

360) VGC - 310,000 / NPD - 371,000 = 61,000 undertracked
ps3) VGC - 229,000 / NPD - 337,000 = 108,000 undertracked

April 2012

360) VGC - 288,000 / NPD - 236,000 = 52,000 overtracked
ps3) VGC - 221,000 / NPD - 167,000to199,000 = 22,000/54,000 overtracked

When you add all of those numbers up in the past 5 months in america the 360 has been over track by 1,165,000 million where as the ps3 has only been overtracked by 176,000-208,000.



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milkyjoe on 11 May 2012

"A snippet of extra data for you - NPD told Eurogamer that Kid Icarus: Uprising sold 83,000 copies during April."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-05-10-prototype-2-pips-kinect-star-wars-to-top-of-april-us-chart

Puts the KI > Vita HW into more perspective.



VGChartz

Adinnieken on 11 May 2012

To put April 2012 into perspective, with regards to the three home consoles, the sales numbers are actually very similar to 2007. The major difference is that in 2007 Sony was still selling the PS2 with sales that exceeded the PS3.

In 2007 the Wii was the top console, Xbox 360 second, and the PS3 last. In 2012 the Xbox 360 is the top 130K below what the Wii was at (360K), the PS3 is in second likely above what the Xbox 360 was (174K), and the Wii is in third likely above what the PS3 was (82K).

Personally, I think Nintendo's announcement of the Wii U is what created the decline in the gaming market. There was no beneficial reason for them to come out with their announcement of the Wii U at E3 last year. In the best case scenario, it would ruin Wii sales, in the worst case scenario it would ruin all console sales. The first quarter of 2011 saw a slight decline over 2010 sales. The second quarter of 2011 saw a 100K decline. After the Wii U announcement, the third quarter of 2011 saw over a 300K loss, and the fourth saw a 1 million unit loss.

The Wii U announcement was premature and neutered the gaming market. Consider for a moment, that the Wii U announcement never took place, there would be less certainty when the new generation of gaming would begin, there would be less hesitation on purchasing a new console in an effort to wait and see what benefits there are to the Wii U. Any questioning of that would have been delayed until June 2012, when the pre-launch announcement happens.

It may have been that for Nintendo, they already reaped all the benefits of the current generation and felt that an announcement of their next gen system would sink the industry sales and both Microsoft and Sony's future plans. Or they may have just made a bone-headed move that killed the entire industry.

As I've mentioned before, the Osborne Effect is a very real and dangerous thing for any company. Announcing a new product before you're ready to roll it out, will dry-up your market. In this age, where technology moves even faster than in the 1980's when the Osborne Effect was coined, it can have a dramatic effect on the entire industry as well.

Had Nintendo not made their announcement when they did I believe strongly that 2011 would have been a better year, and while 2012 would still be in decline, it wouldn't be as soft as it is.



Adinnieken on 11 May 2012
pezus said:
Adinnieken said:

The problem here is that the NPD numbers are just the United States and VGChartz tracks the entirety of the Americas.  There's no way to gauge whether or not VGChartz over or undertracks until the quarterly reports, at which point we then go into the Shipped vs. Sold debate.

VGChartz numbers are guidance, they aren't the last word in sales.  For people to base their fanboy dedication on the numbers that VGChartz comes up with is like beliviing in an all-powerful being that lives in the sky.  VGChartz numbers are one thing, one guide.  NPD numbers are another guide, albeit a more accurate guide to a more specific market.

I would liken the NPDs to a Frommer's Travel Guide.  It may not provide you with everything you could possibly do in a country, but it provides the most accurate picture of what is available to do.  Where as VGChartz is like using the Internet as a travel guide.  You're going to get a lot more information, some of it great, some of it not so great.  It's only as accurate as the sources it has available to it, so you get what you pay for.

VGChartz does track USA seperately, just like NPD.

When did they start doing that? 



smbu2000 on 11 May 2012
milkyjoe said:
"A snippet of extra data for you - NPD told Eurogamer that Kid Icarus: Uprising sold 83,000 copies during April."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-05-10-prototype-2-pips-kinect-star-wars-to-top-of-april-us-chart

Puts the KI > Vita HW into more perspective.

That means that the Vita sold average sales per week were between 12.5k/wk up to a max of about 20k/wk, as it's 50k<PSV<83k (KI number). Terrible sales for Vita.




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Turkish on 11 May 2012

I just read this on gaf:

America April 2012: $630.4 million
Japan April 2012: $412.9 million

American gaming going downhill, I hope its not becoz of smartphones. Things are going fine elsewhere in the world.