I think the chart isn't far off. Nintendo launching the WiiU in November with aggressive advertising will make that the gadget to have, especially if they are similarly priced, and really knocking the first holiday sales. So 4mil seems pretty accurate.

Might be wrong, and the Vita makes the WiiU irrelevant, but I doubt it. Either way, sales are poor.

I would like to know which would be the number of Vitas sold in 2012 with this method taking into consideration that this site numbers are off by approximately 350K to 400K at the moment. If 2012 Vita sales up to end of June are ~20% lower than this site numbers say, how much would it have sold at the end of 2012 with this approximation?

I guess I should have calculated in Sony hate when determining future sales of a new console, lol. I'll try to update tonight but it won't be changing much. I personally don't trust the projected sales during the holidays, they don't even break 200,000. The system will be way more top heavy than that.

Updated to August 25th

 4,038,157 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Hatsune Miku week coming up, is everyone ready for the 2012 prediction # to jump all the way back up to 5 mil?

If the Vita sells close to 60k that week than yes it will.

EDIT: looking at the 47k sold in Japan with the typical 20k sold elsewhere next week will have 5.3 millon. Makes me want to write a thread called "PS Vita is a MAJOR sucess - We need to talk about it" and laugh in Man Bear Pig's face Bwahahahah.

The numbers still need to go up, so if you read this buy a Vita. NO BACKSIES. You read it!

Don't forget the 350k to 400k that the Vita is overtracked by this site numbers

From how I understand your calculations... the predicted sales are derived purely from the last week of Vita sales (and then comparing to last years other platform sales). This means any bumps in sales due to games or promotions outside of the normal calendar increases (Black Friday and Christmas) are actually throwing the prediction off course.

What would be better at getting an end of year total prediction is to use a larger sales period (at least a month, but maybe go bi-monthly or quarter)... It wouldn't be as good at showing the weekly trends, but just for the end of 2012 total it would even it out a little (and wouldn't require updating as much).

Actually its only 200k overtracked, of course the 2.2 million should be shipped numbers.....

The 2.2 million announcement was for June 30th. The overtracking is most likely contained in April, May, and June because they said 400k were sold then but VGChartz has it at 733k which would mean a little bit of undertracking on the other months. It does need some strong adjustments, but according to VGChartz June 30th the Vita had 2.4 million, so it is only 200k overtracked without taking into account possible overtracking/undertracking that has occured in July and August.

That would save the fluctuations unless a month received a crazy boost but a month of good sales might be an indication of an increase of Vita's bottom line sales which are what the chart truly predicts. One obscure week does throw it off and with such low sales right now it is a poor predictor of what sales will be like for Black Friday and beyond, which averages 137k a number the Vita should easily go over during those weeks. Judging Vita's sales using this slow period is the reason why it looks so bleak. Holiday sales will be holiday sales and I don't believe they are measurable by a trending percentage increase, especially since the percentages I am using are based off of consoles that were performing well before the holidays. This month and the next will change the Vita's average sales, I expect its sales to start picking up from here with the new software releases, the kicking in of PSone classics, PS plus integration, and PS Mobile launch. Maybe we will be surprised the week after Hitsume Miku, maybe Vita sales in Japan won't drop straight back down like they did when Persona 4 the Golden launched.