Here is what I got.

LT 2012	2012	LT FY 2012	FY 2012
4,868,903	4,387,330	5,568,341	3,896,249

As you can see lifetime sales by end of FY 2012 doesn't reach 6 million, but probably will for shipped. Quite off track from 10 million. I hope to see something good this year.

It would be sad to see the Vita sell half of what the PSP did its first year. It's such a great console.

If people stopped buying the PSP and started buying Vitas we would see this:

LT 2012	2012	LT FY 2012	FY 2012
7,299,107	6,817,534	8,716,057	7,043,965

Add the 1,996,025 PSPs that already sold this year it is still shy of that 16 million figure. In fact, PSP is selling at about the same rate as the Vita this year so it looks like it will only do 4 million at best. Sony should cut their projections down to 8 million Vitas and 4 million PSPs and start pushing out some Vitas.

Conegamer said: The only unexpected this about the Vita sales would be if it sells less. I don't see how it could 'swing' to above 5mil, really.

All it would take is for AC Liberation and BO Declassified to be more popular than the naysayers are expecting them to be. Maybe Soul Sacrifice actually DOES do well in Japan. Maybe something big gets announced at TGS. Maybe memory card prices drop. A lot of things can happen between now and December. Besides, right here in this thread the predicted sales are less than 200k short of 5m -- and you don't see how it's possible for Sony to manage to get that 200k?

 

TWRoO said: Not sure on you mentioning "easily" but I could see the Vita passing 6 million by the end of the year if things went right. 7 million is a hell of a stretch though, I think Sony would have to drop the price to match the 3DS to go over 7 million.

Right... and a price drop (though not such a drastic one) would be both easy and unexpected, right? XD

the_dengle said: Conegamer said: The only unexpected this about the Vita sales would be if it sells less. I don't see how it could 'swing' to above 5mil, really. All it would take is for AC Liberation and BO Declassified to be more popular than the naysayers are expecting them to be. Maybe Soul Sacrifice actually DOES do well in Japan. Maybe something big gets announced at TGS. Maybe memory card prices drop. A lot of things can happen between now and December. Besides, right here in this thread the predicted sales are less than 200k short of 5m -- and you don't see how it's possible for Sony to manage to get that 200k?   TWRoO said: Not sure on you mentioning "easily" but I could see the Vita passing 6 million by the end of the year if things went right. 7 million is a hell of a stretch though, I think Sony would have to drop the price to match the 3DS to go over 7 million. Right... and a price drop (though not such a drastic one) would be both easy and unexpected, right? XD

They've already said they aren't dropping the price, not to mention that they can't afford to sell it at a loss... And COD and AC won't sell more than a million copies this year, and will likely boost sales by 50-100k. Don't take that graph to heart. Whilst awesome, even slight sales changes drastically affect the year sales. 5mil it stands, which, when your main competitor sells 20mil in just 6 extra months and with 3 fewer months (and one less holiday) in Japan is disappointing. Spin it how you want, because even 7, 8mil (which are both far from likely) would be disappointing for a new console, and Sony's forecasts reflect that.

Conegamer said: They've already said they aren't dropping the price, not to mention that they can't afford to sell it at a loss... And COD and AC won't sell more than a million copies this year, and will likely boost sales by 50-100k. Don't take that graph to heart. Whilst awesome, even slight sales changes drastically affect the year sales. 5mil it stands, which, when your main competitor sells 20mil in just 6 extra months and with 3 fewer months (and one less holiday) in Japan is disappointing. Spin it how you want, because even 7, 8mil (which are both far from likely) would be disappointing for a new console, and Sony's forecasts reflect that.

I didn't say it's not disappointing, and I'm not trying to spin anything. I'm just saying that the year is barely halfway through (and the fiscal year is barely a quarter through), and it's way too early to dismiss 5 or 6 mil as an improbability.

Additionally, the 360 hadn't sold 8 mil by the end of '06 (with a worldwide release in time for the '05 Holidays), and it's doing just fine now, less than 7 years after its launch. The Vita wasn't available in most of the world until mid-late February, so if it sells 6 mil by the end of the year, I'd say it's still got a chance to be a success.

Conegamer said: Even with an 8 year life cycle, selling only 5mil in the first year means you'd be lucky to sell more than 50mil LT. And it'll only last 5 years, 6 max.

Well, to be fair, the 360 only sold about 5m in its first year and will be close to 75m when it turns 8 next year.

But yeah, problem is it's an entirely different set of circumstances for the Vita, which won't have even a fraction of the support/library/system sellers that 360 had in its life, IMO.  I really don't see how the Vita could possibly have a viable 8 year life cycle in today's market.

Updated to August 11th

 3,985,552 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

LT 2012	2012	LT FY 2012	FY 2012
3,985,552	3,503,979	4,412,097	2,740,005

I do apologize for not updating this thread weekly, I have been lazy or busy. (looks at post history) Lazy.

I wanted to make sure I updated it before next week numbers post because they will include Gamescom, so these are pre Gamescom numbers.

I just want to say, OMFG those numbers are FKN terrible. If you are reading this go out and BUY A FKN VITA YOU CHEAPA**.

*huff* *puff* Sorry about that. So yeah, these number are horrendous. There is no way the holidays will sell that few Vitas. This really just craps all over any reliability and consistency my charts have. It's gone from 8 million to 4 million and everywhere in between. I sure do hope Gamescom wakes people up and that all the haters stop campaigning against it on the internet. They can talk about bad sales, they can talk about expense, but they should note the console is a great one to have.

Dang, these numbers are getting depressing.

I do agree with you Chark that the Vita should top what your analysis is predicting, but I don't think it will exceed it by much unless it turns out the past Vita figures were too low (unlikely)... I think it will probably end the year between 4 and 4.5 million.

Updated to August 18th

 4,046,999 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

LT 2012	2012	LT FY 2012	FY 2012
4,046,999	3,565,426	4,493,071	2,820,979

Honestly I was expecting a little stronger boost from Gamescom week. Maybe it won't come till the PSone support arrives on the 28th? Or maybe not till those bundles start flooding the stores. Over 4 million at least.