The analysis seems spot on. I think the most likely launch candidates are Pikmin 3 and Wii Sports/Fit. Maybe some new IPs. Hopefully they'll have a 2D Mario as well and finally launch a Nintendo console properly!

I hope they include online play in the Wii series titles and maybe even Pikmin before releasing the multiplayer-heavy games like MK or Smash Bros. I want them to know what mistakes to avoid with their fancy new network.

I've gotta say the analyses is assuming all those studios are going to make new entries in their last titles. Nintendos studios often do what they want, new IP are coming and studios might go back into other franchises as well.

This is a very neat analysis! I still think 2D Mario will come out NEXT year; stealing some of sonys and Microsofts thunder from their new consoles...

Retro plzzzzz Eternal darkness 2 & Donkey Kong Country :return 2

Nintendo should go with WiiSports, Wiiplay, WiiFit, Starfox , DKCR2, Pikmin 3 on launch window. Than keep Mario Kart, Super Mario bros 4, Metroid Prima 4, Smash Bros, Zelda, Mario 3D for later. (imo)

So what do we know for sure?
Pikmin 3 at launch is almost certain... what else?

Pikmin and Mario day one would be SUPER Great!!!!!

I want a shit mario liek NEw Super Mario Bros Mii that will keep me busy until November 2013 when a super great mario will be released.

Pikmin 3 will be another great treat escpecially with multiplayer - wi-fi connectiona nd lot sof extras.

Adding... a Kid icarus HD on a big screen will be incredible.

if Nintendo wants this console to start with a huge bang, then they´ll need a 2D Mario game.Pikmin isn´t anywhere close to being a system seller, and a new Wii Sports game isn´t guaranteed the same success we saw back in 2006/2007.

But a new 2D Mario at launch is indeed a guarantee the system will be quite desirable for months.

If you could spread that out over 12-18 months, you would have a big big seller with a lot of momentum.
The problem is you don't want them to close together (they would cannibalize each other) but you need enough to initially move the system. I would think MarioKart would be the highest priority since it seems to have the most universal appeal. Zelda would have the lowest since there was just a release in that series.

Mike from Morgantown