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Forums - Sales - We've Seen 2005-2007 Sales Now. What do you expect for LTD Sales?

Smidlee said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Smidlee said:
 

 


It'll gain steam but it still occupies a very different niche than Wii, even its Blu-ray capabilities won't help it since by then other Blu-ray players will probably have dropped below its price

PS3 is more than Blu-ray. It also in HD and has the hardware to run games well in HD. The problem is HD hasn't fully caught on yet. My wife couldn't tell at first if something was in HD or not until after watching a movie in HD. Now she can easily pick out when something is in HD. HD help games even more than movies.

 

 


 And most people don't care about HD, whetehr in games or in movies, my parents think Mario and Sonic is amazing graphics, Mario and sonic, most of us would find that funny, but that is what the market is really like.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Smidlee said:
HappySqurriel said:

I could be wrong, but with how you suggest the PS3 will have sold up until 2011 I see no reason why it would continue to sell at any noticeable level past 2012 ...

With the way technology improves, by 2011 Microsoft and Nintendo will be able to produce a system (at least) 4 to 8 times as powerful as the PS3 with built in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player and 64GB worth of Flash memory for $200 to $300. The sales you suggest for the PS3 does not justify a lot of exclusive support and third party publishers will not see it as a priority when they need to start re-allocating resources towards the next generation of consoles and portable systems.


Yet PS3 has proven the most powerful system doesn't win right? ( I  seriously doubt the next Big N console will be  much more powerful then ps3.) I too believe PS3 will eventually gain steam after it price reach around $250. I also doubt Flash memory will be cheat enough (like the Blu -Ray with PS3) to be by the next console generation. PS3 as a console is too far ahead of it time for it's own good. 

 

I don't know how powerful the next generation Nintendo platform will be. I don't see game development costs increasing at the same exponential rate that they have for several generations, which makes me doubt that Nintendo would keep processing power as low as you're suggesting; I don't expect them to be producing a bleeding edge (or even a cutting edge) system, but producing a system that is as powerful as a 2 or 3 year old bleeding edge system should be cost effective and easy.

The comment on flash was in replacement for a hard-drive, within a couple of years we will see 32GB and 64GB flash based iPods, and by the time 2011 comes around these will be very cost effective to use in a console.



I really like your predictions TheSorce.
Keep up the good work.



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Avinash_Tyagi said:
 

And most people don't care about HD, whetehr in games or in movies, my parents think Mario and Sonic is amazing graphics, Mario and sonic, most of us would find that funny, but that is what the market is really like.


That is of now many don't care (most like my wife didn't know what HD was). I know of some who is starting to care. It same could be said of PS2 ; it had amazing graphics in 2000 but not so great now. I don't buy that people don't care about improved graphics when it's been a major selling point the whole time. (if people didn't  really care then Wii is nothing but a gamecube with a different controller.) Even wii fans are concerned about graphics or they wouldn't ask could a Wii game look as good as CoD4 at the end of it's life.

As time goes on I believe you will see a bigger differecne in Ps3 HD graphics compared to Wii SD.



Generally I agree, except I expect the PS3 to be at about 80M lifetime at least.



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HappySqurriel said:
Smidlee said:
 

 

 

 

The comment on flash was in replacement for a hard-drive, within a couple of years we will see 32GB and 64GB flash based iPods, and by the time 2011 comes around these will be very cost effective to use in a console.

Yet the Wii don't even have a hard-drive so I seriously doubt it will have Flash. As far as flash becoming  cheaper that fast I hope you are right.

 



Is PS3 numbers are Joke? =))

I mean, why SO Low?
1) Sony won Blu-ray battle. That will move additional hardware.
2) in 2008 PS3 will get BIGGEST games of these generation.

2007 - 2008:
America 2,726,861 - 3,300,000 - With lower price, with BIG games only +600k? +12k per week? Are you Nuts??
Japan 1,218,612 - 2,000,000 - That`s like 40k per week. yeah, lol.
Total Others 3,516,313 - 4,700,000 - Wow, 25k per week increase. With KZ2, R2, MGS4, GT5, LBP and maybe FFXIII + Gow3.

I JUST wanna to know the reason, WHY you so UNDERESTIMATE PS3 sales?
Just because x360 2nd year sales were POOR?
Playstation BRAND means NOTHING? price cuts means NOTHING? Over 10 AA games means NOTHING.

Just for the records, not ONE AAA game give a boost to a system, BUT 10-20 AA games make a BOOST to a system.
As for me, i will make LTD predictions in February after GDC.
But for now..

that ps3 sales in Japan are going to drop, like they did 1 year ago.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&start=39033&end=39453
from 70k to 30k. Though, i expect 50k to have.
BUT, then again, 50k leead for whole yearin Japan only will lead atleast to 2,5 mln. console in PS3 favour. With full GT5, also MGS4, FFXIII, WKS and other great games to come this year, i expect 3 mln. lead over x360 in Japan ONLY.

The gap now is 7 mln. between PS3 and X360.
PS3 still doing worse in USA, but doing better in Europe.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=Total+Other&start=39033&end=39453
x360 was sellling around 40-50k in europe 1 year ago, now i think it will be in 60-70k range. And ps3 to be in 100-110 range. So from 30k to 50k lead. With big games released, it will be around 3 mln. lead over x360 in Europe ONLY.

Now, wha is left.. oh USA.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&start=39033&end=39453
I expect 80k for x360 and 60k for ps3. That is 20k lead for x360. FOR now.
But as long as BIG ps3 games come, ps3 will start outsell x360 in USA.

Now, 3 mln. in Japan + 3 mln. in Europe. Only 1 mln. is needed in USA. 1 mln. is 20k every week for whole 2008. If this possible, then by the end of 2008 PS3 will oustell WW x360 in total numbers. :)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Smidlee said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
 

And most people don't care about HD, whetehr in games or in movies, my parents think Mario and Sonic is amazing graphics, Mario and sonic, most of us would find that funny, but that is what the market is really like.


That is of now many don't care (most like my wife didn't know what HD was). I know of some who is starting to care. It same could be said of PS2 ; it had amazing graphics in 2000 but not so great now. I don't buy that people don't care about improved graphics when it's been a major selling point the whole time. (if people didn't  really care then Wii is nothing but a gamecube with a different controller.) Even wii fans are concerned about graphics or they wouldn't ask could a Wii game look as good as CoD4 at the end of it's life.

As time goes on I believe you will see a bigger differecne in Ps3 HD graphics compared to Wii SD.


 People on this site are asking about graphics of Wii, most of America and the world doesn't know of VGchartz and don't spend time on internent forums in addition your wife is married to a gamer so of course she knows a little more than normal.  Most people in this great big world couldn't care less about HD, most owners of flat screeens don't have HD signal, sure grphics matter up to a point, but msot can't tell the difference between digital TV and HD tv, which is why you have people who think games like Mario and Sonic have amazing graphics, because its not as important as you seem to think



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

CrazzyMan said:
Is PS3 numbers are Joke? =))

I mean, why SO Low?
1) Sony won Blu-ray battle. That will move additional hardware.
2) in 2008 PS3 will get BIGGEST games of these generation.

2007 - 2008:
America 2,726,861 - 3,300,000 - With lower price, with BIG games only +600k? +12k per week? Are you Nuts??
Japan 1,218,612 - 2,000,000 - That`s like 40k per week. yeah, lol.
Total Others 3,516,313 - 4,700,000 - Wow, 25k per week increase. With KZ2, R2, MGS4, GT5, LBP and maybe FFXIII + Gow3.

I JUST wanna to know the reason, WHY you so UNDERESTIMATE PS3 sales?
Just because x360 2nd year sales were POOR?
Playstation BRAND means NOTHING? price cuts means NOTHING? Over 10 AA games means NOTHING.

Just for the records, not ONE AAA game give a boost to a system, BUT 10-20 AA games make a BOOST to a system.
As for me, i will make LTD predictions in February after GDC.
But for now..

that ps3 sales in Japan are going to drop, like they did 1 year ago.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&start=39033&end=39453
from 70k to 30k. Though, i expect 50k to have.
BUT, then again, 50k leead for whole yearin Japan only will lead atleast to 2,5 mln. console in PS3 favour. With full GT5, also MGS4, FFXIII, WKS and other great games to come this year, i expect 3 mln. lead over x360 in Japan ONLY.

The gap now is 7 mln. between PS3 and X360.
PS3 still doing worse in USA, but doing better in Europe.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=Total+Other&start=39033&end=39453
x360 was sellling around 40-50k in europe 1 year ago, now i think it will be in 60-70k range. And ps3 to be in 100-110 range. So from 30k to 50k lead. With big games released, it will be around 3 mln. lead over x360 in Europe ONLY.

Now, wha is left.. oh USA.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&start=39033&end=39453
I expect 80k for x360 and 60k for ps3. That is 20k lead for x360. FOR now.
But as long as BIG ps3 games come, ps3 will start outsell x360 in USA.

Now, 3 mln. in Japan + 3 mln. in Europe. Only 1 mln. is needed in USA. 1 mln. is 20k every week for whole 2008. If this possible, then by the end of 2008 PS3 will oustell WW x360 in total numbers. :)

 Yea, listen to this guy! He has no spelling what so ever, sentences make no sense and he has an extreme use of emoticons! Also, blu-ray!

 just listen to him alright!



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Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!


 

I won't put any bold predictions in. Except that the sales for the year 2008 will be reflective of final placement for this generation.

PS3 will improve in sales this year substantially, but it will be closer then people think with 360. There are good titles coming out for PS3, but 360 has new IP titles that could be fairly equal to the PS3 titles. Because of the delays that many titles have faced on PS3, the Microsoft first party titles have had more time to become better and therefore should compete well if Microsoft's marketing does their job.

Price drops will help PS3 but, 360 has room to match or better those price drops. If 360 can hold sales this year, it will really help it survive through this generation as next year sequels to strong selling 360 titles will probably start coming out.

As for Wii, I think it will continue to be strong this year. Until, Nintendo stops producing great games Wii ownership will continue to grow. Most Wii owners I know don't play as many games and don't stay as in touch with the day-to-day gaming industry. So, until either Microsoft or Sony come up with something that really threatens the Wii the world will be status quo for them.