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HappySqurriel on 12 January 2008
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Smidlee said:
HappySqurriel said:

I could be wrong, but with how you suggest the PS3 will have sold up until 2011 I see no reason why it would continue to sell at any noticeable level past 2012 ...

With the way technology improves, by 2011 Microsoft and Nintendo will be able to produce a system (at least) 4 to 8 times as powerful as the PS3 with built in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player and 64GB worth of Flash memory for $200 to $300. The sales you suggest for the PS3 does not justify a lot of exclusive support and third party publishers will not see it as a priority when they need to start re-allocating resources towards the next generation of consoles and portable systems.


Yet PS3 has proven the most powerful system doesn't win right? ( I  seriously doubt the next Big N console will be  much more powerful then ps3.) I too believe PS3 will eventually gain steam after it price reach around $250. I also doubt Flash memory will be cheat enough (like the Blu -Ray with PS3) to be by the next console generation. PS3 as a console is too far ahead of it time for it's own good. 

 

I don't know how powerful the next generation Nintendo platform will be. I don't see game development costs increasing at the same exponential rate that they have for several generations, which makes me doubt that Nintendo would keep processing power as low as you're suggesting; I don't expect them to be producing a bleeding edge (or even a cutting edge) system, but producing a system that is as powerful as a 2 or 3 year old bleeding edge system should be cost effective and easy.

The comment on flash was in replacement for a hard-drive, within a couple of years we will see 32GB and 64GB flash based iPods, and by the time 2011 comes around these will be very cost effective to use in a console.