Nintendo will have a much easier time with the handheld, as the WiiU's design adds a lot of cost for little increase in usefulness. Sony won't have a comparatively overpriced console and it's handheld is selling well without even having a price cut yet and plus the vita will port all kinds of games from the ps3 and sell higher margin games online.. Msft will be more of the same, good performance. I view nintendo as being last for the next gen and Sony/msft battling it out for first place

I think it does. If it launches at a good price it will have a 10m+ head start by the time the XBox 3 and PS4 launch, and with a good price it will outsell the competition for at least a year

I think Metallicube read my mind. Ninty's got a decent shot at it, but not a lock.

1.  I am what's called the average, and own a Wii360.  That said, if you said that in the Gamecube days I will have to agree.  I also take that as you mean consoles and not Nintendo as a company.  But I going to give it to you as it is.  Nintendo has sold 95+ million Wii's and 150+ million DS worldwide.  I have seen a article that the Wii rules the living room and X360 the beedroom.  The casual gamer is the sustainable audience is why no PS3 1st party game will ever reach sales of Wii-Fit.  Did you look at VGChartz Database,  Wii sports is bananas.  Nintendo rules fourteen of the best selling game ever.  GTA: San Andreas for the PS2 at fifteen, then Nintendo rules the next six to twentyone followed by GTA: Vice City.  So if your talking games, there you have it.  The casual  is the sustainable audience and not the so called hardcore. Try telling them if they not your average folk.  Even Just Dance game selling crazy.

2.  That wasn't always so, and the Wii U is around the corner.

Dude, I'm really biased to Nintendo. I absolutely loved the Wii (up until 2011). I still need the software to convince me. I'm just sayin it's too early to predict because we barely know anything about the direction Nintendo are taking in hardware capability and in their games. We got an idea but nothing more :/

I wasn't even that pumped for the Wii (I waited till Smash was almost about to release before I even got one).   I see a lot more potential in the Wii U than the Wii ever showed/did.  I suppose you weren't impressed by any of the demos during last E3 that showed all the various things you could do with the new controller.  I was never that impressed with the Wiimote besides it having an infrared.

A solid basing, I must admit!

1. I see your point, but you're saying as if casual gamers were all Nintendo fans, which is not true. The problem for Nintendo is indeed to have those people buy WiiU to replace their Wiis. To people for which Wii is their first ever system and who consider gaming as a secondary leisure, what could be the reason to upgrade? Furthermore, the enormous sales of Wii sports and the like also mean Wii players hadn't much else to play on their system. The PS360 library is far richer and more varied. If you check the game DB, you'll see that Wii has le lowest number of million sellers and 500K sellers. Those huge sales actually are a liability for Nintendo as it asphyxiates and eventually deters third party support. By the way, I own a WiiPS3, that doesn't make me love Nintendo or want WiiU.

2. Yes, tables have turned largely in favor of Sony/Microsoft, that's why I reckon WiiU can't win : it has (so far) no assets to compete with PS360. We are speculating on WiiU's chances, that was the point of this discussion...

What you're saying is that there is little reason for the non-loyal gamers who already own PS360s to buy WiiU when they can play all of the 3rd party offerings on the consoles they already own.  But what you're overlooking is that there is a 20m+ strong Nintendo fanbase that will make the WiiU an immediate sellout (so long as it has great games, of course).  These people en masse are looking to upgrade to a new console more than anyone.  This fact alone will allow WiiU sales to compete nicely with what the PS360 has left for the market.  The right games that utilize the controller well will be impossible to get on the cheaper HD consoles.

Addressing your point about casual Wii owners not seeing a reason to upgrade, in the first year or so, you might be right.  But WiiU will not be at its launch price forever.  Once it reaches $199 and has a far more robust library is when these people are apt to bite.  Unless Nintendo has at least one buzz game that proves the controller and everyone wants (ala Wii Sports), they'll bite even sooner.

Nintendo's timing and rumored price (if $299) are actually positioning WiiU to do very well; as long as they deliver the right games and don't squander their lead.

Hey hey, motion control had a much bigger WOW factor. It shows from people's reactions back then compared to how they view the Wii U. I'm not saying I won't buy a Wii U, I'm just saying that it won't have the mass appeal the Wii had in its first 2-3 years. Wii U demos were ok, but this time hardware is really important since the Wii does have a damaged reputation especially during the last couple of years. 

There's a couple of things Nintendo has to do to appeal to the consumer. First, this E3 is major. They have to be able to tell the consmer, Hey you need this. Up to now it isn't the case imo, and that's due to a lot of vagueness about the Wii U (How are the graphics? Can we use two tablets? How can the tablet be a fun and innovative function? ). Second they need to have sustainable sales unlike the Wii. That has to be correleated to 1. How lasting the hardware can be meaning graphics, AI, etc... The Wii failed miserably there and 2. Continuous software releases. Pro 2008 Wii had a weak and very Holiday oriented software lineup. That needs to be solved and it's mainly through 3rd party software, and even Nintendo management.