Anyone else feel that Nintendo has next gen locked up?

[maverick40]

DanneSandin said:

maverick40 said:

DanneSandin said:

maverick40 said:
I think this will be the gamecube repeated. The hardcore nintendo fans will always buy nintendo but they are around the 25 - 30 million mark. The casual gamers are a fickle bunch and they will flock to whatever is popular at the time. It seems like they will flock to apple or smart phones for their casual gaming this time round.

If you look back at e3 2011, nintendo had a terrible e3. For the 1st time ever they made launching a new console boring and confusing. The hardcore gamers were confused and annoyed at the announcement and the casuals couldn't care less. The wii u looks too much like the wii and the tablet fad is years old with apple reigning dominance in that market.

It is going to be tough for Nintendo but they will always have their 25 - 30 million oldschool fans.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: WiiU will reach 40m at the very least...

What are you basing that off?

I'm basing that on that next gen will sell a total of around 300 million consoles (give or take 30m units ^^), and with that numbers Nintendo CAN'T sell anything less than 40m, since that would be about 10% of the market (13.3% to be more precise I think - I've never been good with math) - and they haven't seen that bad numbers since the GC days... I think N64 had around 20% market share??

The speculation of 300 million consoles sold is based on the fact that since the SNES days (or the 4th console generation) and additional 50 m consoles has been sold for each generation:

4th: ~100m consoles sold

5th:~150m

6th: ~200m

7th: are heading towards ~250m consoles sold.

Therefore I assume the next gen will sell about 300m, and Nintendo should at the very least get 10% of the market share.

EDIT: That's of course if nothing drastic change, like iPads getting used like console, rendering them obsolite...

A solid basing, I must admit!