Remember back when everyone used this simplified and isolated logic to assume other things about Nintendo?

NES: Market leader, longest life of the generation.

SNES: Market leader, longest life of the generation.

PSOne: same as above

PS2: same as above

"Saying that Nintendo will launch their next console first next generation is preposterous."

NES: Market leader, best 3rd party support.

SNES: Market leader, best 3rd party support.

PSOne: same as above

PS2: same as above

"The major 3rd party support will shift over to the Wii, just wait and see."

PSOne: Price lowers, sales escalate and lead to long legs.

PS2: Price lowers, sales escalate and lead to amazing legs.

"Once the Wii price goes down into mass market grounds, it will regain and retain the lead, win every single holiday season and have incredible longevity."

"Wii will easily outsell the PS2 lifetime, its tracking way above it."

"Wii will reach 50% marketshare in 2008 - 2009 - 2010 etc and stay there."

"Nintendo has a history of keeping their consoles thriving, they won't just drop support like that."

"The DS is doing great, there's no reason to think that an heir will be announced any time soon."

I could go on, this generation is filled to the brim with these fallacies, even more so than HD fans wishing/thinking that the 360 will catch the Wii, PS3 will rebound and win and other ridiculous claims.

This generation should have taught us that its not that simple, the market has changed drastically and nothing is the same, especially when it comes to Nintendo, who seem unsure of which direction they want to take. Go for the HD, more hardcore segment with HD graphics and sound or the tablet/phone crowd with the tablet style controller and interface?

No, its not cut and dry, there is no telling what will happen. I will repeat what I've been saying though; the WiiU will not be as successfull as the Wii, not even close (in my opinion, I could be wrong). We cannout use the past as a blueprint and the amazing close horse race that this generation is becoming is a testament to the change the market and gaming climate has undergone.

Nintendo is going in the direction they went with the GCN, and moving a little bit away from the expanded audience that they catered to for the Wii. For that reason, though I think Wii U will be a moderate success, it will probably sell nowhere near the level Wii had. I'd say 40-50 million LTD, compared to Wii's 90-100 million LTD.

Nothing to sneeze at. And remember, even if it only sells 30 million or so, it'll be a much bigger success than the GameCube was. GCN sold less than 23 million LTD. Just horrible.

Casual gamers are not dedicated and don't go and buy a new system just because it's Nintendo we seen this with the 3DS the only people that have that brand power is Apple because they can sell their products at any price.

I'm not gonna say it will win or lose as nothing is certain no matter how the previous gen played out.

nobody thought the Wii or DS would be this huge, not even Nintendo. WiiU and 3DS might become the monsters nobody saw coming and they could also just be what Wii and DS where or sell a lot less.

Nintendo needs to have huge games at launch and be prepared for next years E3. when MS and Sony shows their stuff Nintendo has to have something as big or bigger to show of to prove that what they have is better than what the competition has to offer and that includes 3rd party games as well as great online interface. there is always something that can be done too outperform your competition

for me I just want to play Pikmin 3 right now and plz let there be a Metroid FPA/S at E3!! :(

We can come up with reasons and speculations, we also know they had thought about this way before.
"Whats wrong with you?"

1. I disagree, what you're talking about with 3rd party,  it's nothing new to true Nintendo fanboys that have had a 64 and Gamecube.  But to Sony's fanboys having copied the Wii remote, and being last place is a damage image.  In the beginning using the sixaxis as motion controls, and the trouble Sony is in losing money for years makes it worst.

2. I disagree, the PS3 is not selling enough to close the gap on Nintendo's 30+ million lead fast.  This has nothing to do with the Xbox 360.  PS3 selling more software than the Wii is a lie.

3. That is disputable.

tablet gaming won't be nearly as big and fresh for the casual compared to motion gaming, also xbox is way stronger now in NA, Sony are going strong in EU and japan so Nintendo will have a good fight on all three regions, also I don't think they will manage to release such juggernauts as wii fit, wii play, wii sport etc. I can see mario kart wiiu and all the mario games selling well but without the other crappy high selling games they had this gen the domination won't be nearly as big.

There's actually some good points here! I don't think it's gonna be that easy for Nintendo to dominate this generation - unless they get 3rd party support (AND maintain it during the whole generation) and keeping their casual audience (which, I imagen, as moved on to Kinect). Nintendo IP's always manages to do well, they don't need 3rd party games - but it wouldn't hurt!!! They might end up selling 40m units at the very least...

I don't thing the tablet will be a great factor, because you cant use it without the WiiU. You cant take it out to the university and do something useful with it.

I think it depends on how they utilize it in game play... If done right it could be awesome,