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Forums - Sales - TheSource's 2007 predictions...What'd be their end sales

TheSource on 07 May 2007

When are expecting each of the current consoles and portables (Wii, DS, PS3, PSP, 360) to have their best year for sales?  Is the console having it's best year in 2007?

First, let me break down how I see the sales of each console ending up. The low end numbers work under the assumption of the market only growing with population, not expanding into new demographics.

Wii - 75-100 million

PS3 - 65-85 million

360 - 50-65 million

DS - 100-120 million

PSP - 45-60 million

The actual lifetime sales I see like this:

DS - 110 million (34 million Americas, 40 million Japan, 36 million Europe & Others)(Current = 151,670,904)

Wii - 80 million (28 million Americas, 27 million Japan, 25 million Europe & Others) (Current 95.3 Million)

PS3 - 70 million (24 million Americas, 8 million Japan, 38 million Europe & Others) (Current 62.5 Million)

360 - 60 million (38 million Americas, 1.5 million Japan, 20.5 million Europe & Others) (Current 65.3 Million)

PSP - 55 million (22 million Americas, 15 million Japan, 18 million Europe & Others)(Current 73,498,007)

Now for best year I think we will see this:

2007 - DS (25 million)

2008 - PSP (13 million), Wii (20 million), 360 (8 million)  PSP will pick up alot of momentum in the USA as Nintendo focuses on Wii.  The DS will likely be at over 60% of what it can sell by the end of 2007, so sales will slow once it passes 20 million sold in Japan in 2007, opening the door for the bit of a PSP revival here as well.  Wii should be in full force as Nintendo expands the market worldwide to non-gamers, and 3rd parties will be on board with strong offerings by mid year because of strong 2007 sales.  Wii will likely be the top selling console in all three regions in 2008.  360 will sell strongly in the USA with a price cut, a big library of software, and PS3 still establishing itself.  With 360 and Wii both hitting the 20 million milestone in 2008, neither system will be abandoned by 3rd parties as Sony's previous holiday only momentum (in 06'-08') finally spills over in 2009 when the console is cheap enough for most people to buy.

2009 - PS3 (15 million).  Blueray adoption, price cuts, and stronger late 2007 sales will garner more 3rd party support as 360 support begins to decline a little bit as Microsoft begins giving out development tools for Xbox 720.  Wii will begin reaching limits on what it can sell in Japan as well, right as PS3 price becomes mass market and 3rd parties give more support.

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Sorry Source but they seemed to enjoy my last thread, I was thinking and your name come to mind.

I cannot seem to find where to go to get the PSP and DS total sales now.

This one of the more reasonable predictions for its times, and as to how it held up.


Hope you guys like some blast from the past's... Seeya



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It doesn't much look like he underestimated the PS3 to me... Yes, the system has two years at least left in its lifetime, but (1) that's a ballpark estimate, and (2) there's no telling how well it sells after the WiiU comes out. Could potentially die out pretty much.



 SW-5120-1900-6153

Yeah sorry i reread the post. I got the ones he hoped for and what he thought would happen mixed up.



This must be one of his best predictions



That's not too bad!



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Also surprised he predicted Wii that low and that he predicted 360 to beat Wii in Americas by 10M - 27M in Japan is definitely out there too.

Overall not that bad though.



Not bad at all... No one expected that 360 and Ps3 would still be here so thats pretty good predictions...

Also Ps3 will be around 70M when this year ends... a little bit above.



The Source was one of the most accurate sales analysts and his close/accurate sales predictions reflect this. Some of the more radical analysts made some out of this world sales predictions and they are all eating humble pie.

The Source wears the crown of being one of the most accurate VGChartz sales analysts who accurately  predicted the ltd sales of the 7th generation  system sales wars, 4 or 5 years in advance.

Some radical sales analysts unsuccessfully predicted the Wii would sell 150m+ sales. PS3 would sell over 140m sales. The X360 would only sell 40m console sales ltd. 



Just wondering if people are enjoying me bring up old threads, is it just annoying?



WhiteDevil said:
Just wondering if people are enjoying me bring up old threads, is it just annoying?

No it's awesome.