First, let me break down how I see the sales of each console ending up. The low end numbers work under the assumption of the market only growing with population, not expanding into new demographics.
Wii - 75-100 million
PS3 - 65-85 million
360 - 50-65 million
DS - 100-120 million
PSP - 45-60 million
The actual lifetime sales I see like this:
DS - 110 million (34 million Americas, 40 million Japan, 36 million Europe & Others)(Current = 151,670,904)
Wii - 80 million (28 million Americas, 27 million Japan, 25 million Europe & Others) (Current 95.3 Million)
PS3 - 70 million (24 million Americas, 8 million Japan, 38 million Europe & Others) (Current 62.5 Million)
360 - 60 million (38 million Americas, 1.5 million Japan, 20.5 million Europe & Others) (Current 65.3 Million)
PSP - 55 million (22 million Americas, 15 million Japan, 18 million Europe & Others)(Current 73,498,007)
Now for best year I think we will see this:
2007 - DS (25 million)
2008 - PSP (13 million), Wii (20 million), 360 (8 million) PSP will pick up alot of momentum in the USA as Nintendo focuses on Wii. The DS will likely be at over 60% of what it can sell by the end of 2007, so sales will slow once it passes 20 million sold in Japan in 2007, opening the door for the bit of a PSP revival here as well. Wii should be in full force as Nintendo expands the market worldwide to non-gamers, and 3rd parties will be on board with strong offerings by mid year because of strong 2007 sales. Wii will likely be the top selling console in all three regions in 2008. 360 will sell strongly in the USA with a price cut, a big library of software, and PS3 still establishing itself. With 360 and Wii both hitting the 20 million milestone in 2008, neither system will be abandoned by 3rd parties as Sony's previous holiday only momentum (in 06'-08') finally spills over in 2009 when the console is cheap enough for most people to buy.
2009 - PS3 (15 million). Blueray adoption, price cuts, and stronger late 2007 sales will garner more 3rd party support as 360 support begins to decline a little bit as Microsoft begins giving out development tools for Xbox 720. Wii will begin reaching limits on what it can sell in Japan as well, right as PS3 price becomes mass market and 3rd parties give more support.
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Sorry Source but they seemed to enjoy my last thread, I was thinking and your name come to mind.
I cannot seem to find where to go to get the PSP and DS total sales now.
This one of the more reasonable predictions for its times, and as to how it held up.
Hope you guys like some blast from the past's... Seeya
