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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGStockz: General Questions

aori said:
Well assuming it is the ipad 3 being unveiled tomorrow, I'm expecting apple to drop. Not sure how much, but unless the ipad3 turns out to be super duper amazing, there's no way it's gonna meet expectation/hype of all those rumours.
Apple stock dropped when iphone 4s came out, just because it wasn't the iphone 5 investors were expecting. But I'm holding on to my apple options since I've already lost so much in them :P Does that make me illogical?

If you're thinking it'll bounce back from its dip, you aren't illogical. If you're thinking it'll dip so much that you will lose alot of money you won't gain back, then keeping it in there would be illogical. As for which is the most likely, I don't know.

As for gaming stocks, I get the feeling the market doesn't understand them very well and tends to be very bearish unless they're posting record gains. That's why I don't expect our gaming stocks to go anywhere until the 8th gen is in full swing and record profits start coming in.

I completely agree. Investors are dumb when it comes to VG stocks, and affect the trends erratically. Add to that, as Ail said, there is little coverage on (relatively) smaller Japanese companies like Nintendo, Capcom, Konami, Square and others, so its gets even worse there.

 That also means I'm currently at a loss as to what to do in our Vgchartz ladder game. Btw when does the ladder month end? Or are you going to run it for 2 months?

Well, I would say you're right, the trends will largely bounce come 8th gen. In the meantime, our ladder offers other stock than strictly VG stock. We have MS, Google, Apple, Sony, as well as Zynga (for FB games).

The ladder ends mid-March (pretty soon), and doesn't extend. :) Points freeze at game end (I believe).



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happydolphin said:
aori said:
Corrections, hurt. After the drop yesterday I had a feeling it would keep dropping. Was going to panick sell/short. But last time I tried that it bounced back by afternoon. So today I held on. I think I'm paralysed by indecision lol.

Ladder or real investments? What are you investing in, maybe Ail could give you some advice!


I'm in for the long run on most investments( 1 year minimum) so I don't really care about small seasonnal drops, I only view those as opportunity to buy cheap. ( every month I have a transfert from my bank to my broker so i have constantly new cash to invest).

Now I understand the situation would be totally different for someone managing a set amount of money with no positive cash flow every month.. Then you have to sell stuff if you want to buy something else...

But my situation allows me not to panic when the market drops, I have objectives in the 10 and 20 years time frame, nothing in the 6 months. The only time I do sell some is if I really see something bad coming ( like I did in August at the time of the debt debate and at that time I did sell some, but even at that time it was only like 25% of my positions, not more...)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

happydolphin said:
Ail said:
happydolphin said:
Ail said:
Looks like another down day.
At least it looks like I will handily beat the S&P today, as I'm only down 0.65% or so while it is down 1.3%.

Well on the positive side I grabbed more Bank of America this morning... (grabbing them by small chunks, my experience has taught me that I feel better afterward doing it that way than grabbing huge positions in one time, and each chunk is big enough anyway that the trade commission still represents very little , My commission is 7.95$ /trade and I've been buying 250-300 BAC stocks each time).

I was just thinking about that. You have a good deal I pay 20$ for my commission (will pay, when I start my investments). Is that through a special deal with your broker?

"I scratch your back you scratch mine" kinda thing?

Nah Fidelity offers 7.95$/trade for everyone with no minimum number of trade required...

Typically at that price I try to do minimum trades of 2000$ so that the trade comission stays under 1% for buy + selll ( which would be 15.90$).

So true, you need to count commission twice in trading! 1% is a good compromise then, hey? Sadly, I am charged 20$ per transaction so my trade commission is actually 40$ total... >:E

@spurge Hey man, chill. Apart from what Ail said, the trends were similar in DS Y1, released Fall 2004. Look at the trend, it only starts ramping up in Fall 2005. That was once:

1) DS had already a full year in market (we're not there yet with 3DS), and the Wii was 1 year from launch (well, we're there about now).

2) The Nikkei had started going up in Mid 2003, stayed flat and spiked up again in Mid 2005. This must have kick-started Nintendo's stock.

Then, NTDOY's curve started really ramping up mid-2006 onward. This is mostly due to explosive DS sales, and maintained and spiked later in 2007 thanks to Wii boom.

Bottom line:

Hang in there, we're not in the roller coaster just yet. It's coming soon if 3DS can pull off explosive SW sales like the DS could (hopefully 2D mario 3DS), and WiiU can also pull off a Wii Sports-like appeal (maybe half of it is my prediction). All in all the curves should be good.

Expect high competition from mobile/social/tablets against Nintendo's bread and butter casual offerings though (Nintendogs, Brain Age). Time will tell, but I expect very subdued 3DS SW sales as compared to DS, and about half the performance of Wii Sports SW for WiiU's interactive experiences.

It should go up, but not right now. Once WiiU launches it will certainly go up due to WiiU's interactive appeal.


1% or less seems like a good compromise. If you're going to have 2-3% or more costs on your transactions, you might as well buy mutual funds with 1% expense and let a professional manage the money...

Not that I do better than professionals ( and my 401k is strictly mutual funds anyway) but I like the thrill of managing some of the money myself...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

retagging



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I am very concerned about Apple stock today, anyone else thinking of selling prior to iPad 3 announce?



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Train wreck said:
Ail said:

Gosh Apple can't stop....
My Apple stocks are now 36% up since my purchases in October and I've been steadily beating the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2012 only because of Apple. And that's in a real portfolio that contains bonds and cash too...

TBH I wish it could slow down as I am in for the long run ( no way I pay 30% tax on my Apple profits) and at the current rythm the stock is going to derail at some point..

My only position down is EA and it's my smallest position...
I got on the Microsoft train a few days ago too, after reading a bunch of stuff about the stock and the company...


Yea apple is definatly in a bubble right now, the fundamentles of the company (even being the best in the world) cant justifiy the price.  I would use any product news announcements to sell out shares.  The first real test will come on Wednesday with the Ipad 3 on display, the stock will initally go up, but then have a reversal.  I would allocate out of apple and into microsoft.  windows 8 cycle, new windows server 8, arm based tablets, continued xbox strength, the stock will continue to go up this year.

Im waiting for a further pullback in Sony to start a new position in it, the stock has been up I want to say 15 out of the 20 trading days this month, truly insane, but the move from 16 to 22 was kinda fast, down 3% today maybe once it hits the mid 19~ ill use my tax return to start a position.  Unlike all the non financial people here on this site, Sony prospects for Q1 12 and the rest of the year is positive.  Adele continuing to have strong album sales in the US (and a new album coming out), two blockbuster movies on tap this year (men in black 3 and spiderman reboot), higher preiums for their insurance unit due to the earthquake, possibity of another flooding indicient in thailand and earthquake in japan are extremely remote, the challenges are its TV business and how it will intergrate its Sony phone line.  Hiari indicated that the TV business will be focus one.  The Vita honestly does not matter, its a small margin item and it will add to overall revenue but in terms of breaking the company, its laughable. 

I still have my sprint position, trading at 2.50, I still believe that a merger is in its future, but at the rate its burning cash, going to the market for more, still owes apple 15.5 billion and all the clearwire obligations, the company going to go into chapter 11 and restructuring and selling assets might be its only option.

Ohh I hate being right, definately a key reversal today.



Train wreck said:
Train wreck said:

Yea apple is definatly in a bubble right now, the fundamentles of the company (even being the best in the world) cant justifiy the price.  I would use any product news announcements to sell out shares.  The first real test will come on Wednesday with the Ipad 3 on display, the stock will initally go up, but then have a reversal.  I would allocate out of apple and into microsoft.  windows 8 cycle, new windows server 8, arm based tablets, continued xbox strength, the stock will continue to go up this year.

Ohh I hate being right, definately a key reversal today.

I just sold all my apple stock a few minutes ago. It wasn't doing too horribly prior to my sale (I made a virtual 100$ profit over a 2500$ investment). I am expecting it to dip a bit though. iPad 3 may be the top of the curve.



Daily Numbers:

Near all mildly up, Nintendo and MS up 1%+.

Zynga down 2%, konami down <1%



I'm down over 2000$ today in the ladder game o.O
I seem to have gained the ability to buy high and sell low :P



aori said:
I'm down over 2000$ today in the ladder game o.O
I seem to have gained the ability to buy high and sell low :P

Did you unlock an achievement?