I've heard the same, Bod. From people who think a bit of cardio is a workout. I admit that I'm not in the greatest shape but if I can turn and twist enough, I can do it.

Either way, that's not my real point. My point lies in that I don't think Westerners will pay $350+ for a workout "machine" they can't find readily and that Wii Fit will suffer from it and ultimately not sell well in the Western world because it requires multiple devices that might not be purchased at the same time.

There is a lot to be said about exercise equipment and impulse purchases. The Wii and Wii Fit do not exactly squeeze into either category. 

 I don't follow the merits of your reasoning. If supply constraint is going to limit sales of Wii Fit because of SSBB then I would guess you would also predict sales of SSBB to be limited in Japan because of the sales of Wii Fit. Your prediction of 7-8 million lifetime sales of Wii Fit because Nintendo can only sell 1.8 million consoles every month is odd. I thought at first you were suggesting that Wii Fit was selling great in Japan but that it had some certain appeal that wasn't going to translate to Western markets. Your comment about Japanese being willing to stand in line for a purchase and Westerners not being willing to do the same did sound facetious to me.

So what is "real exercise" then? Jogging, push-ups, aeorobics?

Edit: And a lot of people pay over $500 a year to do "a bit of cardio" at the gym.

No, not really. Think about it this way:

Both Wii Fit and SSBB are going to sell extremely well. Anyone who would argue that is foolish.

They are going to sell to different demographics and markets in different degrees. I expected Wii Fit to sell extremely well in Japan (which it has) and I expect it to sell well in Europe and NA to lesser degrees.

I expect SSBB to sell very well in America, and to a lesser amount, the rest of the world. I could be wrong but that's how I see it.

Either way you put it, the Wii and it's ~20m userbase cannot handle two titles so vastly different selling 15m apiece, no matter how large it grows. Look at every other bit of history in the industry and NOTHING has had that kind of disparity in sales, demographic, and userbase.

Is the Wii different? Hell yeah, I think it is.

But it ain't that different. 

 Well, okay. I look at it from a different viewpoint. The Wii userbase and these vastly different titles do seem to be a perfect storm that hasn't hit in quite this way to a console that is just over a year old. I think Japan is now showing that the percentage of cross-over in a household, or even the appeal of these titles to the same person (SSBB is sold-out on pre-orders, Wii Fit is selling out), is high. Given what the sales have been so far I'm expecting Wii Fit to sell to at least 15% of Wii owners by the end of the generation. So if your prediction of 7-8 million sales of Wii Fit were to be correct then I would expect the Wii to only sell ~60 million lifetime. So, details forthcoming in the forthcoming years.

 Why not go for a jog then, Wii fit has that as well

good job Niny
In us 2million
Europe: 1.5million

Taking the last bit first ... Nintendogs, Brain Age, New Super Mario Bros, and Pokemon ... all vastly different markets, all over 10m sellers.

Has the Wii been taken off the market, because I didn't realize we now had to handicap all sales predictions with the assumption that the install base of the Wii is locked at 20m?

Yeah, if the Wii dies at 20m units, then Wii Fit sells between 5-7m copies. However, by the end of this year, it seems a reasonable prediction to forecast the Wii install base at ~40m, in which case 15m+ sales of Wii Fit is achievable.

If Wii Fit doesn't sell more than 7m this year, it'll be due to supply constraints, not lack of demand.

I don't understand why people keep reverting to an argument that predicts Wii Fits sales based off of what SSBB or Galaxy or MP3 did. That's absurd. Wii Fit's target is the Wii Sports crowd, not the traditional "core." FWIW, I will be buying both Wii Fit and SSBB. In fact, it's quite possible I'll only buy ONE copy of SSBB, but might have to buy TWO copies of Wii Fit if there are compelling enough applications built around having two balance boards.

As for demand, anyone dismissing Wii Fit must be missing the exercise informercials that air on TV after 3:00 in North America. Fitness is a 14 Billion dollar industry in the United States. This is more than double WORLD WIDE spending on video game consoles and handhelds. 40m Americans have health club memberships, and the average annual family income for those 40m Americans is over $78,000.

$350 for a Wii + Wii Fit is nothing. Price is a complete non-factor.

I would agree with rocketpig, that barring someone like Oprah immediately hyping it, that the WiiFit won't be a massive seller, if for no other reason than supply. (as always)

But I do have the feeling that like Japan, while the initial numbers won't be Halo-like, there will be a strong but steady flow of them, where like in Japan, 1M in a month for America and Europe if supplied, will be doable.

N. will promote it as 'Fit'. Rehab places, like doing already with Wii/WiiSports, will add these to have patients recover. And then the patients will buy them for themselves. And become part of the promotional machine that N. has become. It will be WiiSports all over again, with the same spin on it, and I think, the same success.

@Rocketpig

I agree with your points mostly ... but a couple of questions/clarifications.

1. What do you consider "real exercise"? You said Wii Fitt was not "real exercise." It may or may not be. But a definition would be helpful. (There is mixed research at best currently regarding the fitness affects of the Wii, so you probably have some strong points to be made here).

2. You described the Wii demographic as "fractured." Actually, I think it would be better defined as broad. There is no way to define the Wii gamer because it is a wide mix. Some are traditional, some are returnees, some are casual, some are newcomers, some are children, some are seniors, etc. That means it is doubtful any game is going to have an attach rate like Halo 3. But it also means a lot of different types of games could do quite well. (And I find your predications to be fairly reaslistic).

Mike from Morgantown