| rocketpig said: Either way you put it, the Wii and it's ~20m userbase cannot handle two titles so vastly different selling 15m apiece, no matter how large it grows. Look at every other bit of history in the industry and NOTHING has had that kind of disparity in sales, demographic, and userbase. |
Taking the last bit first ... Nintendogs, Brain Age, New Super Mario Bros, and Pokemon ... all vastly different markets, all over 10m sellers.
Has the Wii been taken off the market, because I didn't realize we now had to handicap all sales predictions with the assumption that the install base of the Wii is locked at 20m?
Yeah, if the Wii dies at 20m units, then Wii Fit sells between 5-7m copies. However, by the end of this year, it seems a reasonable prediction to forecast the Wii install base at ~40m, in which case 15m+ sales of Wii Fit is achievable.
If Wii Fit doesn't sell more than 7m this year, it'll be due to supply constraints, not lack of demand.
I don't understand why people keep reverting to an argument that predicts Wii Fits sales based off of what SSBB or Galaxy or MP3 did. That's absurd. Wii Fit's target is the Wii Sports crowd, not the traditional "core." FWIW, I will be buying both Wii Fit and SSBB. In fact, it's quite possible I'll only buy ONE copy of SSBB, but might have to buy TWO copies of Wii Fit if there are compelling enough applications built around having two balance boards.
As for demand, anyone dismissing Wii Fit must be missing the exercise informercials that air on TV after 3:00 in North America. Fitness is a 14 Billion dollar industry in the United States. This is more than double WORLD WIDE spending on video game consoles and handhelds. 40m Americans have health club memberships, and the average annual family income for those 40m Americans is over $78,000.
$350 for a Wii + Wii Fit is nothing. Price is a complete non-factor.
