So, we're now out of the holiday rush. Nintendo has completely depleted any stockpiles they had, and they've put Wiis into the hands of over 6 million new owners since November.

Nintendo is still producing (or has the capacity to produce) at least 1.8 million consoles per month.

The billion-dollar question (for Nintendo) is, how much longer will the Wii continue to be instantly sold-out? Did they catch up to demand with the holiday surge? Will they create even more demand with Wii Fit, Brawl, and Mario Kart in the first half of this year? Will 1.8 million consoles per month be a surplus, or will Nintendo increase production again?

I think it's pretty clear from Japanese sales data that Nintendo caught up with demand in September, when sales plummetted, hitting a low of 20,000 consoles per week in October. But in America and Others, sales were flat right up to the holiday rush. Will sales in Japan return to their pre-holiday lows, or has Wii Fit sparked additional demand?

Remember, since August, Nintendo was producing more than it was selling in order to stock up for the holiday rush. So they have the capacity to continue selling steadily at higher levels than pre-holidays. Without batting an eye, Nintendo can do 450,000 per week WW, if the demand is still there. Depending on Japan figures (which should be in later today?), they may have done exactly that in the first week after the holidays. How long will this continue?

Good question.

I think we'll see in late February. Through January, I think it's very likely we'll see continued demand simply from people who wanted one from Christmas; in early February, we'll see SSBB demand spikes.

February-August will be the test. We'll see how it goes!  

A lot of this really is dependent on SSBB's success.  Nintendo will be riding that title for a bit if it goes well.

it will depend alot what SSBB,MK and wii fit(america,eu)will do

 Wouldn't most people who'd buy the console just for SSBB already have it?

QFT 

Yes, that is what people said about Halo 3.

I said that we will see by late February -- which means I think SSBB will significantly boost sales for 2-3 weeks. That isn't much of a sustained boost, just like Halo 3 wasn't.

Big games DO boost sales, guys. They just don't cause long term boosts. It's not like SSBB is going to cause sales to increase... and then remain increased forever. It's not how it works. 

Wii fit will pribably push Wii consoles for most of the year in Japan, until the yearly lull in october at least, add in games like SSBB, Kart, and Mario party and such and I don't see the Wii falling off until october there.

In NA and PAL it remains to be seen what Wii fit's effect will be, however the lineup is likely to keep sales strong for the year, I expect sales to be on average around 250-350K a week WW until october

I think we will see WW sales at a rate slightly higher than last year. Japan will likely be down but shifted towards NA. We won't be seeing instant sell outs like we did last year because of the fact that Nintendo boosted production. However, once christmas hits we will see a sell out mad-house that will create a worldwide sales record.