I don't know if I'm missing something here. But shouldn't less sold = more likely to have a price cut = less profit per console, or less sold = less Vitas manufactured = higher manufacture costs per system = less profit per system?

What am I missing?

I'm just saying it as it is guys, no need for a kerfuffle. The fact they dropped it by $80, acted as if it was a dignified act, and will still manage to make it profitable by April says a lot about its initial $250 launch price.

I'm a 3DS ambassador so i'm just perpetually pissed off with Nintendo, especially when I found out a lot of people picked it up at $170 a week early and managed to also get into the ambassador program. Don't worry I'll love them again once they localize Fire Emblem 3DS.

No, you're absolutely right. If there is a pre-emptive price cut it could take even longer... I thought you were saying the opposite, that since they were expecting to sell more in Japan his estimated 3 years was longer than it would actually be given launch results. Obviously not true, my bad for thinking you were sayin' that.

You are not missing anything, your equations are fantastic:

1)  less sold = more likely to have a price cut = less profit per console

2) less sold = less Vitas manufactured = higher manufacture costs per system = less profit per system

Good for you to write them down so clearly. Indeed, up to now, all is pointing to the longer than expected timeframe according to these equations. I think it will fair possibly a little better than expected in the West, but not to a level that can offset the weak performance in Japan, which may take time to ramp up (maybe more than a year or even two) without a severe pricecut obviously (which would also elongate the estimated time according to point 1).

Heh, once again: Glad we're on the same page :)

As for my Vita predictions I'm not really sure what to expect, nor what analysts are suggesting. So, for that reason I don't know if it will go above or below expectations, but I do believe it will make some horrible numbers as the westerns seems to be very strict with having only one portable in their pocket at a time (well, at least from personal experiences). Also, let's face it: Kids are way more likely to own a 3DS than a PSV just like PSP was considered the more mature choice last generation, and they are also less likely to have an expensive smartphone in their pockets. As for the more mature audience I believe they care more about economics these days as well, and the 3DS will get titles like RE: Revelations anyway (and probably Call of Duty later on). They also don't want to pay for apps for both their smartphones and their PSV, so yeah, economics do have an important role nowdays.

Side-note: I'm not sure how much it mattered, but the Playstation brand was also way stronger when the PSP launched, which is evident as friends initially believes I'm showing them an old PSP when it's actually a Vita.

Sorry for the essay ;)

No worries. You may be right. Ultimately what I'm trying to say is that the launch games that released with the Vita were not adequate for the japanese audience (hence the weak sales atm), but are very apealing to the Western, and even more North American audience. I'm saying this mostly about Uncharted and Wipeout. Also LBP is also on the horizon so quite high-caliber games so soon. These are compelling games for early adopters. However, I'm unsure how compelling they are to the mass (even LBP), and at a 250$ pricepoint I'm unsure how many will bite.

Again, you're likely right, but the Vita at least has a chance of hitting a stride in North America. Beyond that I'm not totally certain. If the sales of UC on the PS3 are any indicator, the market isn't so big for those games (3.5M) even if those games are fundamental within the diversity a library needs to be appealing in its sum total.

Good to hear.

Ninty will definitely need it because of the pending WiiU release.

Yeah, that's true about the software, and I'm not really certain about the western sales either. Let's hope for some great sales though :P

Me, personally, wouldn't buy a handheld for 200 bucks... that's what I got my Wii for! No wonder Vita doesn't sell all too well; if there's one thing we've seen this generation of hw is that graphics alone doesn't sell consoles...

:) They have me sold, then again I represent a very small segment of the market :D I do wish for a measure of success by Sony, they bring in lots of good with some bad. Their selling consoles at a loss philosophy is hurting everybody including them, but for everything else they contribute alot of good things to the industry. I'm a fan of the good they bring.

Indeed, competition is good for everyone. I do wonder why they would stick to the expensive hardware though. Clearly, that it what's bringing their brand down as both PS1 and PS2 were relatively cheap and still very successful. But yeah, it's not guaranteed *glares at Gamecube*...