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Forums - Sales Discussion - ZOMG!! JL was incorrect, Wii won't hit 20 mil this year :(

Zucas on 08 January 2008

Well we haven't had Wii shipment numbers released yet. Personally I think we've undertracked December sales in North America, but we'll see.



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BornFirst. on 08 January 2008
Grey Acumen said:
y'know, the scientific method has you round to the nearest decimal specified. Since John Lucas Said 20 - 24 million, and not 20.0 - 24.0 million, scientific method would actually call for us to round up the numbers that have come in to their nearest million. 19.51 is rounded up in this case, which would set his prediction of 20 million plenty accurate enough.

certainly more accurate than 18.5 million, we aren't playing Price is Right here. Not to mention that I've see leo-Js and others swing ALLL over the freaking place... you people started out down around 12-14 million max and that was only after you were able to finally accept the fact that it was going to keep outselling the PS3.

There was already another thread about this, but his very original prediction was for 20 million, he didn't specify a range of 20 - 24 million, and that was waaaay back when.

Sorry, anyone saying that John Lucas failed is just too afraid of the taste of crow.

 Agreed. Talk about clutching for straws.



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Tifa Lockhart on 08 January 2008

It's still blowing the competition to smithereens, and that's what matters.



DMeisterJ on 08 January 2008

@ Tifa

I love your avatar. And on topic, you are correct, it is still killing the comp.



Man on 08 January 2008

maybe jls prediction went a litle somthing like this:

20m minimum assuming severe supply constraints (.4m off is pretty good)

22m if nintendo can manage to increase produce again, or if there were less supply constraints

24m if nintendo were able to meet demand entirely.

if thats the case then he was spot on, right?



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DMeisterJ on 08 January 2008

@ Rol

You know me too well..



iclim4 on 08 January 2008

we should just revive the crow eating thread since JL was wrong.
didnt he say he would gladly eat crow if he was wrong.
hes a respectable enough person, ill bet hes probably gonna put a
line that he was wrong in his prediction on his sig.

Jl is great at predictions, and he was close
but still he was wrong. so CROW




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Smash_Brother on 08 January 2008
DMeisterJ said:
@ Smash

If you read the other thing I posted, I said it was a joke, and that he didn't have to come in here to concede defeat.

People: This thread wasn't really that serious, I wasn't making fun of him for not hitting the nail on the head. It's just that he was one of the most vocal people on the site giving that prediction. And it's the one we all know because he's said it so much. I don't really care if he was wrong. If he was right, I would have posted that too, just that we all knew his prediction is why I posted it.

Also, it may still make it, maybe the prelim JP numbers are very off. And as grey said, scientifically, he is right. :)

Fair enough. Sarcasm doesn't travel well over the internet. :)

"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks

NJ5 on 08 January 2008
DMeisterJ said:
He predicted 20-24 so he figured it'd be around 22 (Average)

I predicted 18-18.5 so I figured 18.25

So 18.25 is closer to (probably) 19.75 than 22 is to 19.75

Also, his margin was four million, and mine was 500k. If I did that, it'd be 18-22 so I would be right.

When did you predict that? I also predicted 18.5 - 21 million but that was just two or three months ago so I'm not going to brag about it, since it was obvious at that time (at least to anyone who followed all the signs which showed that Nintendo had a massive stockpile of Wiis for Christmas).

 



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Tifa Lockhart on 08 January 2008
Smash_Brother said:
DMeisterJ said:
@ Smash

If you read the other thing I posted, I said it was a joke, and that he didn't have to come in here to concede defeat.

People: This thread wasn't really that serious, I wasn't making fun of him for not hitting the nail on the head. It's just that he was one of the most vocal people on the site giving that prediction. And it's the one we all know because he's said it so much. I don't really care if he was wrong. If he was right, I would have posted that too, just that we all knew his prediction is why I posted it.

Also, it may still make it, maybe the prelim JP numbers are very off. And as grey said, scientifically, he is right. :)

 

Fair enough. Sarcasm doesn't travel well over the internet. :)

Noooo, really? >.<