Whoa, that was a lot to read. 
I do have a few points to add. First, I can't believe people are trying to downplay NPD numbers, as if they aren't accurate. It is true that NPD estimates a portion of its numbers, however, with the re-addition of Wal-mart's sales data, it is only a very small portion. Not enough for it to be that incredibly far off. This is why ALL of the big 3 state their numbers as fact each month.
And yes, it is possible for the PS3 to be overtracked in EU, and thus being down YOY there even more than previously thought. However, considering this is usually a very strong region for Sony, it would most likely mean the 360 is either flat this year or down, as well. I just can't see the 360 being massively up in a region where usually it just sells decent. It would be like me expecting the PS3 to be massively up and tying/outselling the 360 in the US if the roles were reversed (NPD for EU instead of US, Sony announced a large shipment gap). As someone else stated, Nintendo will probably release GFK's EU numbers in their financials, which will make the EU picture more clear.
Nice to know I at least got one prediction right, so far. I don't even remember what thread it was, but I said that because of the early Thursday Black Friday sales that went on til Sat/Sun, it was likely people would shift their holiday shopping to those days, decreasing the sales of the 2 weeks before Christmas (usually the largest selling weeks). Of course, I didn't expect it to be down quite that much.
