Not sure if it was clear from what I said, but I meant that they would only consider leaving if one of those conditions were met, not that they definitely would leave.

My point was, xbox could be bleeding money and MS would keep it alive, as long as they have the money, and Sony is still threatening MS's dominance. If Sony is removed as a threat, then MS will stay if it is profitable to stay, and leave otherwise. You are right that, with Sony gone, it likely would be profitable, so they would likely stay.

I would go:

1) Sony (Pilling debt, controversial techniques, Ps vita)
2)Nintendo (3ds might save its behind, But wii failling, WiiU might even be doomed)
3)Microsoft (Declining shares in OS, Browsers, WP7 not successful, But those factors (except WP7) are declining so slow its negligible at the current time)

Nintendo.

They live and die the most by their systems. Microsoft and Sony have sustainable business elsewhere to prop their companies up if things go South for a generation or two.

Nintendo is unique but they won a price war this generation that's all, The fact that HD consoles combined outsold the Wii by a large margin is a telling statement. It sold on price and gimmick at the start of the generation and survived awhile on some solid games. Unfortunately it's over and it has been consistently outsold for much of the year.

But for Nintendo all it will take is a bad handheld/console generation or two and it might call it quits. The Wii really saved them. Additionally, I would wager most Nintendo owners primarily buy a Nintendo for Nintendo published games specifically as their third party hasn't been good since SNES days. This makes them an obvious candidate to end up as a publisher on superior Hardware.

Yeah, I agree. as soon as Nintendo have a bad home console generation or two they will call it quits.

I predict that after the Wii U, they will release a console called the N64, and it will sell around 30 million. That's one bad generation right there, and they might call it quits after that. but if they don't, they will call their next console the GC, and it will sell worse, barely over 20 million. That's two bad generations in a row - surely after that they will call it quits...

Thank god their handheld market was incredibly dominant during that timeframe. Otherwise they may have been forced to call it quits!  

In reality,  the Wii in my estimate was their last ditch type of console effort.  Crazy far out, Motion controls, bargain basement pricing, backwards compatibility for Gamecube owners.  No worthwhile online network initially, No HD.  Released last.  Priced the cheapest.   One more Gamecube, N64 type generation and a less than favorable handheld generation and I think Nintendo might just be publishing games on a frugile sense.  This generation for Nintendo had all the makings of a console that was built as cheaply as humanly possible, while trying to be as different from its competitors as it could possibly be, because frankly that was the only chance they had.

They're wise with their business but don't fool yourself into thinking they weren't in fairly dire circumstances prior to Nintendo Wii release.  I am happy for them, the gaming world is better off having several different philosophies rather than just a graphical arms race between MS / Sony.

I think Microsoft is the most likely to drop out suddenly without warning, Sony the company would need to go bankrupt before i see them leaving the console industry.  (Their far more likely to bow out of the handheld race than the console race),  And Nintendo has the least resources in their favor outside of gaming.  The choice is obvious,  Nintendo could easily take a nosedive and be done.   Just a few generations of mis-steps and that's all she wrote.

So now you have changed your tune to " They live and die the most by their systems. Microsoft and Sony have sustainable business elsewhere to prop their companies up if things go South for three consecutive generations"

Excellent. So lets assume that the Wii U sells 34 M (ie about 30% of the final sales of its predecessor), and lasts for 5 years, that will take us to late 2017, then the Wii U 2 comes out and sells 21 million, leading to the Wii U 3 releasng in late 2022. Assuming it flops as well, then we have hit three consecutive failoures and thus we hypothesise that, as early as the year 2027, Nintendo may leave the home console business by not creating a Wii U 4! The end is imminent.

And yes, they only got through the N64 and GC years (making a profit every single year) because of the success of their portables. Well, lucky for Nintendo, the 3DS is to be the fastest selling console to 15 million units ever, by 2 months. Vita hardly looks like it's going to shake that dominance.

I don't know how bad Sony is really struggling, but we definitely know their best days are behind them.

Worst case scenario they can probably become a very popular 3rd party.

Sony by the looks of it. Hopefully it'll be at a time when I'm over videogames.

Under the current video gaming environment, the closest thing I could see possibly happening, is Sony and Microsoft do a joint venture after the next generation of consoles. Obviously it'd rely on Sony's expertise on hardware and game development(inhouse studios) as well as Microsoft's software and marketing prowess. It'd actually make a lot of sense and be a very profitable venture (cuts costs, reduces competitive price points, and increases customer capital), But it requires both companies to concede their differences and give up a lot of ground they have been battling for for over a decade now. It's hard to see that happening, but I could see it being a possibility.

Nintendo has has large amounts of money stacked up and is in no debt unlike Sony. For them to go out of business they would have to fail badly in the handheld market, the console market and have very low software sales in both. They were raking in profits even with the GC.

Since, Nintendo sells consoles at a profit or very small loss and their software are so universally popular they are currently nowhere near getting out. Even if Wii U only sells 30 million, the console will sell enough hardware and software for them to make nice profits. They don't take big losses on consoles like Sony and MS do. Smart business for a gaming-only company.

Based on the current state of the three the only one who would be likely to leave if they failed next gen is Sony. If Vita doesn't do as well as PSP and if they take even more losses with PS4 thanks to stiff competition from MS and Nintendo, that could very well drive them out of the industry. It doesn't matter if they have other branches when those  are not doing well either. If they reach a point where the gaming sector is dragging them down even more, they could very well cut it out (though it would make more sense to cut something else out instead since their gaming sector is one of the most profitable).

MS has large amounts of cash and their long-term goal is to become the entertainment centre of people's living room which they seem to be on the path to currently. So even though they have taken so much loss since coming into the console business, I can't see them getting out unless they reach a point where they have taken so much losses they decide it isn't worth it anymore.

Edit: This is for Rpruett, sry.