Rpruett said:
In reality, the Wii in my estimate was their last ditch type of console effort. Crazy far out, Motion controls, bargain basement pricing, backwards compatibility for Gamecube owners. No worthwhile online network initially, No HD. Released last. Priced the cheapest. One more Gamecube, N64 type generation and a less than favorable handheld generation and I think Nintendo might just be publishing games on a frugile sense. This generation for Nintendo had all the makings of a console that was built as cheaply as humanly possible, while trying to be as different from its competitors as it could possibly be, because frankly that was the only chance they had.
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So now you have changed your tune to " They live and die the most by their systems. Microsoft and Sony have sustainable business elsewhere to prop their companies up if things go South for three consecutive generations"
Excellent. So lets assume that the Wii U sells 34 M (ie about 30% of the final sales of its predecessor), and lasts for 5 years, that will take us to late 2017, then the Wii U 2 comes out and sells 21 million, leading to the Wii U 3 releasng in late 2022. Assuming it flops as well, then we have hit three consecutive failoures and thus we hypothesise that, as early as the year 2027, Nintendo may leave the home console business by not creating a Wii U 4! The end is imminent.
And yes, they only got through the N64 and GC years (making a profit every single year) because of the success of their portables. Well, lucky for Nintendo, the 3DS is to be the fastest selling console to 15 million units ever, by 2 months. Vita hardly looks like it's going to shake that dominance.
