Yes, tho UC3 shouldn't outsell UC2.
Because it sucks.

enrageorange said: tendoronie67 said: Seece said: tendoronie67 said: Seece said: Depends how much longer Uncharted 3 is heavily bundled, even then it looks like a no. Gears 3 is trending for 7 mill lifetime at least i personally wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. Gears 2 was released on november 7th 2008 after its first 10 weeks only an extra 2.3 million copies were sold thats three years and a month, and nearly 3 christmas seasons, rumour has it the new xbox might be seen at e3 next year so if its true id say it would be out in 2013. Gears 3 would have to have much better legs then 2 or 1  Not really, it'll be 2 years before the nextbox hits which is plenty of time to shift another 2 copies. It only needs legs on par with the 2nd. Seem to be looking at best case scenario for U3 and worst for Gears 3. 'Seem to be looking at best case scenario for U3 and worst for Gears 3.' Not really just looking at there previous instalments uncharted 2 managed to sell another 4.5 million  copies after it's first 10 weeks in 2 years it was released on october 13th. Gears of war 2 sold 2.4 million copies after its first 10 weeks in 3 years.   uncharted 2 DID NOT manage to sell another 4.5mil after its first 10 weeks. Where are you getting this info from. You are comparing extrapolated lifetime sales to non extrapolated week 10 sales. In its first 10 weeks Uncharted 2 sold 2.4mil http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40167/Global/ 22 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3) Sony Computer Entertainment, Action 10 189,600 2,421,999 Since then it has sold 5.2mil. 5.2mil -2.4mil =2.8mil after its first 10 weeks.

Major Math stuff up on my part but still over 50% of its sales are from legs and after first 10 weeks which gears 2 did not manage to do let alone being out for a year longer 

well expectations are high for both UC3 and GEARS3, so it's possible for either to happen.

the going prediction/expectation for GEARS3 LTS is 8-10m

UC3 is relatively the the same at 6-10m, so with expectations that high, both could be considered failures like many consider LBP to be since it failed to push PS hardware, and failed at exceeding 10m units sold globally, but anyone that expected that forgot to screw their head on tight.

as for this being your first thread? well you're taking on Seece,(which is an accomplishment imo), it's a great topic with 2 of the biggest ip released this gen., and it seems you have a solid theory to backup claims which are based on sales patterns, so i think you're off to a great start.

Aha thanks man, & unless gears 3 has vastly better legs then gears 2 i don't see it making any of them high expectations thats all. 

Gears of War sold around 5.9 million.
Gears of War 2 has sold around 6.1 million.
Gears of War 3 should sell more than 6.1 million and outsell Gears of War 2.

Uncharted 3 will need to sell over 6 million+ to equal Gears of War 3's sales.
40-60 chance of it happening. Gears of War 3 has the edge due to Gears of War 1 & 2 beating out Uncharted 1 & 2 in sales.

Saying that every uncharted has grown in sales, with uncharted 2 looking like it will make it to 6m eventually 

yea thank me now, cause your next thread may not be so lucky. i agree. I doubt GEARS3 have bettr legs.

Gears 3 has sold 4.736mil in its first 12 weeks. http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales-data/44123/gears-of-war-3/ The total lifetime sales don't include the sales from week 13 which is still ongoing.

Gears 2 was at 4.4mil at week 12. http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/39838/Global/ but was selling less then 50k weekly because it was already past the holidays. Gears 3 still has 3 more holiday weeks and so by week 15 it should be gears 3 at 5.2ish and gears 2 at 4.5. Uncharted has the opposite problem. Uncharted 2 launched preholidays so it will start catching up weekly once the holidays end for uncharted 3 three weeks earlier.

I would assume by week 15 both sequels will be around 700k-1mil ahead of their predessesors with uncharted 3 probably being ahead by a bit more. After that its anyone's guess how well they sell. Depends on how much more uncharted gets bundled, if gears ends up getting bundled, how soon next gen consoles come out, how soon potential sequels come out, etc.

I think the lfetime sales will be on par between GEOW3 and UC3. But the key difference is GEOW3 will bring more money to the publisher. GEOW3 is a kind of front-load software meaning many of them were sold as high price tag. UC3 is a kind of long-lag software meaing few percentages of them were sold as budget price tag. So IMO, GEOW is still greater than UC.

Just my opinion.

Gears of War 3 was top heavy in opening weeks but bundling will increase it sales.
Uncharted 3 will have longer legs and continue to sell more units and close in on Uncharted 2 sales.