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Forums - Sales - Can Uncharted 3 outsell Gears of war 3

I was looking at the sales of the two game series and noticed the differences in the legs between Gears of War & Uncharted with a great portion of GEOW sales in its first week, and first 10 weeks, whilst Uncharted has it's greater portion of sales in its weeks after the first 10. 

  Week 1 Week 10 Lifetime Sales after 10 weeks % of sales after 10 weeks (rounded)
Uncharted: Drakes Fortune 109,891 849,383 3,985,486 3,136,103 80
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 705,890 2,421,999 5,276,063 2,854,064 55
Uncharted 3: Drakes Deception 1,016,417 ?? ?? ?? ??

Uncharted 3 looks likely to sell around 3.4 million or more by it's 10th week and if the sale trends apply to Uncharted 3 which have from the previous instalments then the sales after its 10 weeks should account for more then half it sales. 

If the percentage of sales after 10 weeks is :

50% then it should be around 6.8million in 2 years time.

63% then it should be around 7.2million in 2 years time. 

80% then it should be around 7.8million in 2 years time. (very unlikely!) 

  Week 1 Week 10 Lifetime Sales after 10 Weeks % Of sales after 10 weeks (rounded)
Gears of War 771,181 2,761,873 5,884,625 3,122,752 53
Gears of War 2  1,643,062 3,734,250 6,112,579 2,378,329 39
Gears of War 3 2,583,590 3,824,790 4,736,012 911,222 19

Gears of War 3 sold 3.8 million in its first 10 weeks, and if it has the same type of legs as Gears of War 2 has it means that the biggest part of its sales are already done and i believe it won't have as good legs.

If the percentage of sales after 10 weeks is:

35% it should be around 7m in 2 years time (my belief)

39% it should be around 7.2m in 2 years time

53% it should be around 7.7m in two years time (very unlikely)  

As you can see if Uncharted 3 has as good legs as Uncharted 2 it will be around the 7.2m range IMO it won't it will be just under Uncharted 2s Amazing legs and around 60% of it sales will be after 10 weeks by 2 years. If gears of war 3 has the exact same legs as GEOW 2 then it should be around 7.2m in 2 years but IMO it won't and it's sales after 10 weeks will be around 35-37% of its sales. If this happens it means Both Uncharted 3 and Gears of War 3 will be around around the same amount of sales by 2013 december. 

Whats your thoughts???



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pezus said:
Didn't Uncharted 2 sell ~2.8-3m in 2009? Yet you have it at 1.9m for the first 10 weeks?

Vgchartz has it as 1.9million for ten week total

 

WeekUSAEuropeJapanTotalRunning Total
1 355,139 296,558 54,193 705,890 705,890
2 121,888 140,050 17,957 279,895 985,785
3 72,056 88,596 11,071 171,723 1,157,508
4 43,597 46,739 5,061 95,397 1,252,905
5 39,448 47,835 3,874 91,157 1,344,062
6 39,087 36,391 3,150 78,628 1,422,690
7 73,621 46,780 2,871 123,272 1,545,962
8 50,262 55,005 2,502 107,769 1,653,731
9 71,117 57,961 2,651 131,729 1,785,460
10 79,847 68,142 2,929 150,918 1,936,378
Ten Week Totals:946,062884,057106,2591,936,378 
Lifetime Totals:2,328,7631,768,228169,7814,266,772 
Global Total (Extrapolated):5,276,063


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Probably not but you never know.



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

By the way first thread take it easy on me



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Depends how much longer Uncharted 3 is heavily bundled, even then it looks like a no. Gears 3 is trending for 7 mill lifetime at least



 

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Not likely. UC3 will probably sell 5.5 million and Gears 3, 6.5-7 million.



 

 

 

Seece said:

Depends how much longer Uncharted 3 is heavily bundled, even then it looks like a no. Gears 3 is trending for 7 mill lifetime at least

i personally wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. Gears 2 was released on november 7th 2008 after its first 10 weeks only an extra 2.3 million copies were sold thats three years and a month, and nearly 3 christmas seasons, rumour has it the new xbox might be seen at e3 next year so if its true id say it would be out in 2013. Gears 3 would have to have much better legs then 2 or 1 



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nope



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

tendoronie67 said:
Seece said:

Depends how much longer Uncharted 3 is heavily bundled, even then it looks like a no. Gears 3 is trending for 7 mill lifetime at least

i personally wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. Gears 2 was released on november 7th 2008 after its first 10 weeks only an extra 2.3 million copies were sold thats three years and a month, and nearly 3 christmas seasons, rumour has it the new xbox might be seen at e3 next year so if its true id say it would be out in 2013. Gears 3 would have to have much better legs then 2 or 1 

Not really, it'll be 2 years before the nextbox hits which is plenty of time to shift another 2 copies. It only needs legs on par with the 2nd.

Seem to be looking at best case scenario for U3 and worst for Gears 3.



 

Seece said:
tendoronie67 said:
Seece said:

Depends how much longer Uncharted 3 is heavily bundled, even then it looks like a no. Gears 3 is trending for 7 mill lifetime at least

i personally wouldn't be surprised if it didn't. Gears 2 was released on november 7th 2008 after its first 10 weeks only an extra 2.3 million copies were sold thats three years and a month, and nearly 3 christmas seasons, rumour has it the new xbox might be seen at e3 next year so if its true id say it would be out in 2013. Gears 3 would have to have much better legs then 2 or 1 

Not really, it'll be 2 years before the nextbox hits which is plenty of time to shift another 2 copies. It only needs legs on par with the 2nd.

Seem to be looking at best case scenario for U3 and worst for Gears 3.

'Seem to be looking at best case scenario for U3 and worst for Gears 3.' Not really just looking at there previous instalments uncharted 2 managed to sell another 4.5 million  copies after it's first 10 weeks in 2 years it was released on october 13th. Gears of war 2 sold 2.4 million copies after its first 10 weeks in 3 years.  



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