I was looking at the sales of the two game series and noticed the differences in the legs between Gears of War & Uncharted with a great portion of GEOW sales in its first week, and first 10 weeks, whilst Uncharted has it's greater portion of sales in its weeks after the first 10.
| Week 1 | Week 10 | Lifetime | Sales after 10 weeks | % of sales after 10 weeks (rounded) | |
| Uncharted: Drakes Fortune | 109,891 | 849,383 | 3,985,486 | 3,136,103 | 80 |
| Uncharted 2: Among Thieves | 705,890 | 2,421,999 | 5,276,063 | 2,854,064 | 55 |
| Uncharted 3: Drakes Deception | 1,016,417 | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
Uncharted 3 looks likely to sell around 3.4 million or more by it's 10th week and if the sale trends apply to Uncharted 3 which have from the previous instalments then the sales after its 10 weeks should account for more then half it sales.
If the percentage of sales after 10 weeks is :
50% then it should be around 6.8million in 2 years time.
63% then it should be around 7.2million in 2 years time.
80% then it should be around 7.8million in 2 years time. (very unlikely!)
| Week 1 | Week 10 | Lifetime | Sales after 10 Weeks | % Of sales after 10 weeks (rounded) | |
| Gears of War | 771,181 | 2,761,873 | 5,884,625 | 3,122,752 | 53 |
| Gears of War 2 | 1,643,062 | 3,734,250 | 6,112,579 | 2,378,329 | 39 |
| Gears of War 3 | 2,583,590 | 3,824,790 | 4,736,012 | 911,222 | 19 |
Gears of War 3 sold 3.8 million in its first 10 weeks, and if it has the same type of legs as Gears of War 2 has it means that the biggest part of its sales are already done and i believe it won't have as good legs.
If the percentage of sales after 10 weeks is:
35% it should be around 7m in 2 years time (my belief)
39% it should be around 7.2m in 2 years time
53% it should be around 7.7m in two years time (very unlikely)
As you can see if Uncharted 3 has as good legs as Uncharted 2 it will be around the 7.2m range IMO it won't it will be just under Uncharted 2s Amazing legs and around 60% of it sales will be after 10 weeks by 2 years. If gears of war 3 has the exact same legs as GEOW 2 then it should be around 7.2m in 2 years but IMO it won't and it's sales after 10 weeks will be around 35-37% of its sales. If this happens it means Both Uncharted 3 and Gears of War 3 will be around around the same amount of sales by 2013 december.
Whats your thoughts???
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