You claimed that a winning console always doubles its install base its second year - FACT
So did microsoft sold 16 mln. alone in 2007?

PS2:
Sony Mar-2001 10.61 around 10 alone.
Sony Mar-2002 28.68 around 20 alone.

x360:
M$ mar 2007 - 11 around 11 alone.
M$ mar 2008 - 19 around 10 alone.

console must increase it`s first years SALE numbers TWICE, to be successful. NOT total numbers, BUT sale numbers per year.

@kirby007:

LOL kirby, so when ps3 was above 20%? =)) PS3 only gaining it`s momentum.

Microsoft screwed hardware shipment numbers in 2007 because of the fact that they vastly overshipped in Q4 2006 with 4.5m units shipped, whereas they sold maybe half of that in the same period.

Too many units were left, forcing MS to only sell 1.3m-1.4m hardware units in the first 2 quarters of 2007.

2008 should be quite a bit differently. VGC has shown that the X360 has outsold 2006's October through December cume by around 1m units. That will translate to stronger 2008 shipments.

Then add in the fact that I highly doubt sales will get as low as they did in May-July worldwide (when the X360 was selling ~40k/wk in NA), and shipments will be up.

IMO, I think we could see 9m hardware units shipped this year if MS does drop the price when GTAIV launches.

Crazzy sales have gone up, you cannot dispute that... the loss ot sales to retail is just due to MS reaming the market last Christmas.

You then say something about thhs years shipments being less than sales... of course they are, otherwise there would be even more than 2.4 million 360s standing around in retail.

What you should be comparing is last years sales to this years, because that is what shows you demand. Oh and if we are predicting, I will say I doubt a significant sales increase next year for 360, 8.5 mil max, but probably around 7.5 million.

@CM

.....
last week

@TWRoO:

Since when shipping less then sold per year is sign of success?
And sale incerease since 2006 to 2007 is PATHETIC.

it is an increase the WAY YOU said it it LOOKED like DECREASE

1) Shippments has decreased.
2) If you look at sales of 2005+2006 and 2007 you will see, that there was NO increase. But some people are just in DENIAL and still believe that x360 is a success.

Seriously, just stop. Your argument is so flawed that it's ridiculous.

And I don't see people around here touting the great success of the 360... Is it a moderate success for MS? If you look at marketshare gain over last generation, possibly, maybe even likely.

There's a lot of time left for a lot of things to happen. Stop acting as if your shipment argument carries any weight whatsoever. It's been shot down multiple times by several posters in this thread.

You have got to stop going around spouting that theory of yours.  It is completely ridiculous and the very definition of cherrypicking a statistic.  You completely ignore the fact that the PS2 hadn't launched in major terrotories including NA or others till several months later severely diminishing the Year 1 "WW" totals.  The 360 launched in all major territories within the span of 2 weeks.

Nobody is saying the 360 will have PS2 level success, as far as I know anyway.  But to use such an arbitrary and misleading "trend" to declare it a failure is wrong plain and simple.

I could similarly decide to state that whatever a consoles sales were in the first half of the first year it must show an increase by at least a million in the second half to be "successful" as you say.  The PS2 went from 3 mil the first 26 weeks to 4.1 in the latter half.  The PS3 didn't follow this trend and therefore using your logic won't be "successful".

Want me to ban Crazzy yet again?