Who would that be?
Read your articles and I find them to be lacking, for example in your Wii bubble theory you quote the 67% figure, a number that has no actual backing, just something a Famitsu publihser said, but never supported, sales of the Wii in japan, and Wii fit, continue to disprove you
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
| thx1138 said: I still believe the biggest flaw in everyones worship of the Wii is that it's biggest differentiator is also low hanging fruit. I think only stubborness has stopped MS and Sony from releasing there own WiiMote type controller. Once they realize that they need that type of controller to attract the casual and the mother who thinks her kids are more active with a Wii they will release that type of controller. Guitar Hero and WiiFit prove that releasing a game with a controller can be successful. MS releasing a WiiSports clone, say LiveSports with a WiiMote type controller doesnt kill the Wii, but it takes away a differentiator. Makes someone say why not a 360 and get best of both worlds. |
next gen ALL consoles will have motion controller
this gen, it's too late for MS/Sony unless they start bundling motion controls in every console and also ship a free motion controller to every current owner
companies aren't gonna make games like trauma center on a console where only a small % have motion controllers
nintendo will have >50% marketshare this year, and it will be too late for the other 2 to release motion controllers and catch up
they created consoles for hardcore gamers and have marketted them to hardcore gamers....so now they get to fight it out for that small segment of the population
next gen they will do much better when they use a motion controller as THE controller for the system...however, at that point it's nintendo's market to lose, as nintendo is showing that they know how to best utilize the controls, so they will continue to do well
ms/sony will have to prove that they can do the casual gaming better than nintendo can
Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08. Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)
Predictions:
Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07 CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbpI have seen countless “experts” and “visionaries” in my life who were neither experts nor visionaries, and they built their reputation largely due to luck; you can often guess the way something will happen using reasoning which is very fragile to change, true experts and visionaries see the future more clearly because they use much more robust reasoning.
Now, most of these (so called) “experts” in the industry have believed so heavily in the PS3 and Xbox 360 because in the past people have moved from one generation to the next in a large part because of the improvement in graphics. What a lot of them have never considered is that this motivation was going to end at some point; in the very near future we will be able to produce nearly photo-realistic graphics at 60fps, at 1080p with 16xAA and 16xAF (say a dual sli Geforce 9 or 10 set-up). Being that the Wii offers most of the features the average person associated with advanced 3D graphics (fully textured environments, pixel and vertex effects, full facial animation, etc.) most “experts” have over-valued the processing power of the Xbox 360 and PS3.
Beyond that, a lot of the “visionaries” in the industry have focused on incremental improvements in gameplay and major improvements in graphic and marketed these games towards the “core” gamer demographic; the overall result of their efforts has been to bore a large portion of the “core” gamer demographic while alienating the much broader “mainstream” gamer and ignoring the emerging “non-gamer” market. The Wii contrasts their general strategy and encourages new gameplay which attracts the bored gamers whils at the same time appealing to the markets they have ignored or alienated.
Bruceongames said:
If you are really interested in understanding the Wii phenomenon I suggest that you read my blog. Try this article for starters http://www.bruceongames.com/2007/10/17/is-wii-a-bubble/ Also this one http://www.bruceongames.com/2007/09/03/what-is-nintendo/ And this: http://www.bruceongames.com/2007/10/02/the-future-it-is-all-a-gesture/ A chance for all you fanboys to learn how it really is from an industry professional. |
Hi Bruce, we all appreciate the fact that you are an industry profressional. However, plenty of industry professionals have been wrong up to this point in this cycle. Most believed that both XBOX 360 and PS3 would currently be outselling the Wii worldwide. They are not.
You may be right in your articles; however, I recommend avoiding an attitude if you want to be taken seriously by those of us who are truly trying to evaluate the game industry. The only way to have a good discussion is to tolerate other people's viewpoints. I will happily listen to your opinion and exchange ideas with you but I do not like to see other perspectives dismissed as "fanboys" just because they are not industry professionals. Just my two cents.
why is he an industry professional?
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ah yes, I finally looked at your webpage. Funny, somehow I imagined a 17 year old kid trying to be smart and cool.
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Ah yes, I already somehow got that:
"His outspoken behaviour led Personal Computer World to describe him as 'incorrigible'"
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heh do you all know that bruce here used to work for codemasters?(a while ago)
he's apparently done some good stuff over in britain.
so he is a professional.
unfortunately he seems to be on the side of more processing power/better graphics side of the argument on the console situation. a side that is currently not doing as well this generation as the innovative gameplay side.
he has his opinions, i have mine, you have yours.
Currently and for the near future the Wii is the "console" that will "win"
what he doesn't realize is the wii's ease of use, intuitive controls and just damn FUN games = everyone and their grandmother can play it, and like it.
what he also doesn't realize is most industry market people, analysts have had their balls busted by the wii so far. which means the WII has broken the old model of a console user.
this is what he is not getting, a concept that breaks the mold in time will reshape industries... THAT is what the Wii is poised to do. and if the sales continue for the next year, that is what the wii Will do. it is about 1/3rd of the way there, we just need to maintain the sales and have GOOD innovative Fun games to come out in the next year to complete the job.
next gen ALL consoles will have motion controller this gen, it's too late for MS/Sony unless they start bundling motion controls in every console and also ship a free motion controller to every current owner companies aren't gonna make games like trauma center on a console where only a small % have motion controllers nintendo will have >50% marketshare this year, and it will be too late for the other 2 to release motion controllers and catch up they created consoles for hardcore gamers and have marketted them to hardcore gamers....so now they get to fight it out for that small segment of the population
next gen they will do much better when they use a motion controller as THE controller for the system...however, at that point it's nintendo's market to lose, as nintendo is showing that they know how to best utilize the controls, so they will continue to do well
ms/sony will have to prove that they can do the casual gaming better than nintendo can |
Disagree.
The reason for MS or Sony to release a pointer style motion controller is simply so that casuals. Look at a 360 or a PS3 and say I can have the best of both worlds.
See you can add a new controller with minimal investment to the 360 and the PS3. Changing the Wii to WiiHD not so easy. Yes old games can be played on the new WiiHD console (with Backwards compatibility), but new games wont be playable on Wii. The casual market will the most pissed off if a new Wii comes out to soon. Adding a new optional controller for 360 and PS3 and then using Live or PSN to deliver mini-games is a much easier thing to do. 3rd parties will easily port the mini-games they are creating for the Wii to the 360 or PS3 and have an easy online delivery service to boot.
Libraries sell systems not individual games