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Forums - Sales - A lot of big games in EMEAA overtracked? Including gasp Halo Reach and Gran Turismo 5

Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
Nsanity said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:

Either way ethomaz, March 31st is coming, and I don't see GT5 breaking 8.5 million by then. Going to win our little bet of 2 weeks sig and avatar control, .

Seems like ... my chance now is wait PD release their numbers and hope they show that VGC has to adjust it .

In my math GT5 is at least 300k undertracked here.

Do you ever get tired of that one word?

No .

In fact this word is a legacy from an old user who abandoned us... so I use it to remember him .

I don't recall CGI ever claiming GT5 was undertracked. He thought it would break 10 million lifetime (which looks unlikely now).

Not GT5 or GGI... another user with the word UNDERTRACKEDZ for all .



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ETHOMAZ HAS SPOKEN SON



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
 

I heard that racing games are very popular in South America. Anyway we cannot base our estimations on what we hear or not.

Also you can't include South Korea or any other asian countries (maybe even not Middle East countries, since they are part of Asia after all) because the op (and PD) included them into his calculation. PD shipped 230k copies in Asia.

So if the whole Latin America count for 8.3% of the Americas, and that VGC has 1.459M for GT5 in 2010, then it means Latin America sold 121k copies of GT5.

Latin America is 600 million people and its people are generally more rich than in Africa. So even if Africa is 1 billion, I don't think it can sell as much as 600k or 700k . As for the small european countries PD included them in Europe.

Okay yea true, but games like GT5 sold twice as well in EMEAA, so with a matching population, that's more like 240k game sales.

Anyway, my point is Africa has a significant gaming population, and the Europe in that study is only 17 countries, not 50 (although the other countries are significantly smaller), and the Middle East also has strong gaming populations. Europe does not account for 80% or great of the EMEAA (at least not the 17 larger countries).

South America, at only 8% of 21.5 million PS3 units is only 1.6 million PS3 consoles. Middle East Africa and Asia is 5 million, and I bet 3 million of that is outside of Asia. Add in another 1.5/3 million from Other Europe, and that's about 3x the console user base of Latin America. 3x the user base with 2x the sales per userbase, that's 720k or so, almost exactly what the P thinks these games are overtracked by.

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.

It seems you haven't read a word of my last post.

Anyway your numbers are just pulled out of a hat and doesnt even make sense, like pretending there is more PS3 in Africa than in Asia... and 2x the sales per userbase?

You did not prove that these games are not overtracked. End of Story.

GT5 sold twice as well per console in EMEAA over America.

Also I said 3/5 million PS3 sales in MEAA are from Africa AND Middle East, giving Asia the largest territory.

Read your last post, but I think your ignoring mine.


As per ioi:

''As we hopefully start to make some inroads with Latin America + Mexico (3.5%), Asia (3.2%), Australia (3%), Middle East and Africa (1.2%) and the rest of Europe (10%) we should be able to start doing weekly charts for them also and obviously including them in the global chart making it more and more accurate.''

It's now time to admit you were wrong! :D



atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.

You did not prove that these games are not overtracked. End of Story.


As per ioi:

''As we hopefully start to make some inroads with Latin America + Mexico (3.5%), Asia (3.2%), Australia (3%), Middle East and Africa (1.2%) and the rest of Europe (10%) we should be able to start doing weekly charts for them also and obviously including them in the global chart making it more and more accurate.''

It's now time to admit you were wrong! :D

Lol, this is still going on? What you just posted supports my claim that these games are not overtracked. The OP gives sources for game sales in regions not including Middle East and Africa (1.2%) Others Europe (10%) and parts of Asia (0-3.2%).

If a game like GT5 is near 7 million sales, and the OP says it's being overtracked by 600-700k, but ignores 10% of worldwide sales, well....there is where those missing figures come from.

think man, think before you post.

It's time to admit you are wrong. If I'm wrong I'm sure VGC would have noticed before this thread came up and changed their figures to match thse of the OP, but the OP did not include all regions in his analysis, so obviously he is wrong, and VGC and I are right.



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

GT5 is not overtracked, same with Halo and others. End of Story.

You did not prove that these games are not overtracked. End of Story.


As per ioi:

''As we hopefully start to make some inroads with Latin America + Mexico (3.5%), Asia (3.2%), Australia (3%), Middle East and Africa (1.2%) and the rest of Europe (10%) we should be able to start doing weekly charts for them also and obviously including them in the global chart making it more and more accurate.''

It's now time to admit you were wrong! :D

Lol, this is still going on? What you just posted supports my claim that these games are not overtracked. The OP gives sources for game sales in regions not including Middle East and Africa (1.2%) Others Europe (10%) and parts of Asia (0-3.2%).

If a game like GT5 is near 7 million sales, and the OP says it's being overtracked by 600-700k, but ignores 10% of worldwide sales, well....there is where those missing figures come from.

think man, think before you post.

It's time to admit you are wrong. If I'm wrong I'm sure VGC would have noticed before this thread came up and changed their figures to match thse of the OP, but the OP did not include all regions in his analysis, so obviously he is wrong, and VGC and I are right.

Oh well, I'm not saying the game is overtracked or not. What the op says is that if we compare PD numbers and the numbers he tooks on the other chart with VGC numbers, then GT5 is overtracked. Now I'm sure VGC has good reasons to show these numbers but the thing is we just don't know where it comes from and since we don't know we can assume, based on the numbers the op is talking about, that the game is overtracked.

What I was referring to with ioi post is that Latin America is 3x bigger than Africa & Middle East, something where you was obviously wrong, but you don't want to admit. :)



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atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:


As per ioi:

''As we hopefully start to make some inroads with Latin America + Mexico (3.5%), Asia (3.2%), Australia (3%), Middle East and Africa (1.2%) and the rest of Europe (10%) we should be able to start doing weekly charts for them also and obviously including them in the global chart making it more and more accurate.''

It's now time to admit you were wrong! :D

Lol, this is still going on? What you just posted supports my claim that these games are not overtracked. The OP gives sources for game sales in regions not including Middle East and Africa (1.2%) Others Europe (10%) and parts of Asia (0-3.2%).

If a game like GT5 is near 7 million sales, and the OP says it's being overtracked by 600-700k, but ignores 10% of worldwide sales, well....there is where those missing figures come from.

think man, think before you post.

It's time to admit you are wrong. If I'm wrong I'm sure VGC would have noticed before this thread came up and changed their figures to match thse of the OP, but the OP did not include all regions in his analysis, so obviously he is wrong, and VGC and I are right.

Oh well, I'm not saying the game is overtracked or not. What the op says is that if we compare PD numbers and the numbers he tooks on the other chart with VGC numbers, then GT5 is overtracked. Now I'm sure VGC has good reasons to show these numbers but the thing is we just don't know where it comes from and since we don't know we can assume, based on the numbers the op is talking about, that the game is overtracked.

What I was referring to with ioi post is that Latin America is 3x bigger than Africa & Middle East, something where you was obviously wrong, but you don't want to admit. :)

Oh I see! Yea I was making assumptions on the size of Africa and the Middle East. I was wrong, but my reasoning is still correct. Others Europe plays a bigger influence on sales then I gave it credit, and Africa/Middle East plays a smaller role.

Still the OP uses sources that do not include information from Others Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and likely parts of Asia. That combines for 11-14% of worldwide sales, which is where the missing sales come from. Overall the % of sales missing in the OP is accounted for, and that's the important point I was trying to push.



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
 


As per ioi:

''As we hopefully start to make some inroads with Latin America + Mexico (3.5%), Asia (3.2%), Australia (3%), Middle East and Africa (1.2%) and the rest of Europe (10%) we should be able to start doing weekly charts for them also and obviously including them in the global chart making it more and more accurate.''

It's now time to admit you were wrong! :D

Lol, this is still going on? What you just posted supports my claim that these games are not overtracked. The OP gives sources for game sales in regions not including Middle East and Africa (1.2%) Others Europe (10%) and parts of Asia (0-3.2%).

If a game like GT5 is near 7 million sales, and the OP says it's being overtracked by 600-700k, but ignores 10% of worldwide sales, well....there is where those missing figures come from.

think man, think before you post.

It's time to admit you are wrong. If I'm wrong I'm sure VGC would have noticed before this thread came up and changed their figures to match thse of the OP, but the OP did not include all regions in his analysis, so obviously he is wrong, and VGC and I are right.

Oh well, I'm not saying the game is overtracked or not. What the op says is that if we compare PD numbers and the numbers he tooks on the other chart with VGC numbers, then GT5 is overtracked. Now I'm sure VGC has good reasons to show these numbers but the thing is we just don't know where it comes from and since we don't know we can assume, based on the numbers the op is talking about, that the game is overtracked.

What I was referring to with ioi post is that Latin America is 3x bigger than Africa & Middle East, something where you was obviously wrong, but you don't want to admit. :)

Oh I see! Yea I was making assumptions on the size of Africa and the Middle East. I was wrong, but my reasoning is still correct. Others Europe plays a bigger influence on sales then I gave it credit, and Africa/Middle East plays a smaller role.

Still the OP uses sources that do not include information from Others Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and likely parts of Asia. That combines for 11-14% of worldwide sales, which is where the missing sales come from. Overall the % of sales missing in the OP is accounted for, and that's the important point I was trying to push.

This is becoming a bit confusing. Let's try to keep it simple:

According to VGC, GT5 sold 5.29M in 2010 WW, including 3.27M in EMEAA.

The neogaf chart says it sold 2.00M in Europe (17 countries) and PD says they have shipped 230k (probably not all sold, but whatever...) in Asia. Africa and Middle East is 1.2% of 5.29M = 0.06M, which makes a total of 2.29M.

Now there is only a couple of european countries missing to have all EMEAA, right? There is still a 1 million discrepency. Other Europe counts for 10% but also contains some of the 17 countries included by neogaf (like Russia, Poland, Austria, etc.). Let's say there is still half of the other Europe not counted by neogaf, which represents 5% of WW sales, which makes another 0.26M (5% of 5.29M).

Then we have a total of 2.55M of sales for GT5 in EMEAA vs. 3.27M. Assuming there was 300k bundles like the op said, the discrepency is still of 420k.

So it seems the game was overtracked by at least 400k. Maybe I missed something and that's what I would like to know and no one has been able to explain it yet.



atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:

Oh I see! Yea I was making assumptions on the size of Africa and the Middle East. I was wrong, but my reasoning is still correct. Others Europe plays a bigger influence on sales then I gave it credit, and Africa/Middle East plays a smaller role.

Still the OP uses sources that do not include information from Others Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and likely parts of Asia. That combines for 11-14% of worldwide sales, which is where the missing sales come from. Overall the % of sales missing in the OP is accounted for, and that's the important point I was trying to push.

This is becoming a bit confusing. Let's try to keep it simple:

According to VGC, GT5 sold 5.29M in 2010 WW, including 3.27M in EMEAA.

The neogaf chart says it sold 2.00M in Europe (17 countries) and PD says they have shipped 230k (probably not all sold, but whatever...) in Asia. Africa and Middle East is 1.2% of 5.29M = 0.06M, which makes a total of 2.29M.

Now there is only a couple of european countries missing to have all EMEAA, right? There is still a 1 million discrepency. Other Europe counts for 10% but also contains some of the 17 countries included by neogaf (like Russia, Poland, Austria, etc.). Let's say there is still half of the other Europe not counted by neogaf, which represents 5% of WW sales, which makes another 0.26M (5% of 5.29M).

Then we have a total of 2.55M of sales for GT5 in EMEAA vs. 3.27M. Assuming there was 300k bundles like the op said, the discrepency is still of 420k.

So it seems the game was overtracked by at least 400k. Maybe I missed something and that's what I would like to know and no one has been able to explain it yet.

Let me actually do the math too. VGC claim 3.266 million for EMEAA, that Neogaf article claims 2.008 million, so the difference is 1.258 million. Now lets add in all the missing factors.

That article doesn't source the other 33 countries in EMEAA which you quoted ioi claiming that make approximatly 10% of WW sales. Now GT5 is much more popular in EMEAA then Americas, so instead of using 10% WW sales, I will use 20% EMEAA sales. Same Logic will also apply for ME/A, instead of using the WW figure of 1.2% I will use 2.4% of EMEAA sales.

Note Russia, and Poland are part of the 17 countries included by NeoGaf. The 33 missing countries are smaller, or poorer ones, like Ukraine, Finland, Greece, Netherlands etc. Your math is wrong because of an incorrect assumption, stick with the 10% WW sales ioi provided.

PD claim 230k shipped units in Asia. This doesn't cover all of asia, but it's also a shipped value, so I will just use that as a number for the number of units sold in all of Asia.

The last location to include is Australia which accounts for 3% of WW sales. However from what I read Australia's game sales and economy mimic the USA's (Two countries with the highest Obesity rate btw, and they are a lot higher then any other country). So I will just use 3% of WW sales here.

So 1.258 - 0.230 (Shipped to Asia) - 0.159 (Australia) - 0.732 (Others Europe + Middle East and Africa) = 0.137

So the difference from VGC EMEAA data and the data from NeoGaf is 137k. However when you think about it, 100k or so is from bundles so the difference is on 37k. Given VGC is a sales estimate site, this is pretty good.

GT5 is not over or under tracked. I thought people would be able to see that the difference in sales was easily accounted for.



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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Oh I see! Yea I was making assumptions on the size of Africa and the Middle East. I was wrong, but my reasoning is still correct. Others Europe plays a bigger influence on sales then I gave it credit, and Africa/Middle East plays a smaller role.

Still the OP uses sources that do not include information from Others Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and likely parts of Asia. That combines for 11-14% of worldwide sales, which is where the missing sales come from. Overall the % of sales missing in the OP is accounted for, and that's the important point I was trying to push.

This is becoming a bit confusing. Let's try to keep it simple:

According to VGC, GT5 sold 5.29M in 2010 WW, including 3.27M in EMEAA.

The neogaf chart says it sold 2.00M in Europe (17 countries) and PD says they have shipped 230k (probably not all sold, but whatever...) in Asia. Africa and Middle East is 1.2% of 5.29M = 0.06M, which makes a total of 2.29M.

Now there is only a couple of european countries missing to have all EMEAA, right? There is still a 1 million discrepency. Other Europe counts for 10% but also contains some of the 17 countries included by neogaf (like Russia, Poland, Austria, etc.). Let's say there is still half of the other Europe not counted by neogaf, which represents 5% of WW sales, which makes another 0.26M (5% of 5.29M).

Then we have a total of 2.55M of sales for GT5 in EMEAA vs. 3.27M. Assuming there was 300k bundles like the op said, the discrepency is still of 420k.

So it seems the game was overtracked by at least 400k. Maybe I missed something and that's what I would like to know and no one has been able to explain it yet.

Let me actually do the math too. VGC claim 3.266 million for EMEAA, that Neogaf article claims 2.008 million, so the difference is 1.258 million. Now lets add in all the missing factors.

That article doesn't source the other 33 countries in EMEAA which you quoted ioi claiming that make approximatly 10% of WW sales. Now GT5 is much more popular in EMEAA then Americas, so instead of using 10% WW sales, I will use 20% EMEAA sales. Same Logic will also apply for ME/A, instead of using the WW figure of 1.2% I will use 2.4% of EMEAA sales.

Note Russia, and Poland are part of the 17 countries included by NeoGaf. The 33 missing countries are smaller, or poorer ones, like Ukraine, Finland, Greece, Netherlands etc. Your math is wrong because of an incorrect assumption, stick with the 10% WW sales ioi provided.

PD claim 230k shipped units in Asia. This doesn't cover all of asia, but it's also a shipped value, so I will just use that as a number for the number of units sold in all of Asia.

The last location to include is Australia which accounts for 3% of WW sales. However from what I read Australia's game sales and economy mimic the USA's (Two countries with the highest Obesity rate btw, and they are a lot higher then any other country). So I will just use 3% of WW sales here.

So 1.258 - 0.230 (Shipped to Asia) - 0.159 (Australia) - 0.732 (Others Europe + Middle East and Africa) = 0.137

So the difference from VGC EMEAA data and the data from NeoGaf is 137k. However when you think about it, 100k or so is from bundles so the difference is on 37k. Given VGC is a sales estimate site, this is pretty good.

GT5 is not over or under tracked. I thought people would be able to see that the difference in sales was easily accounted for.

What? Are you serious? There are so many mistakes or assumptions in your math that I just cannot take it serioulsy:

First of all saying the missing european countries count for 20% of WW sales is just....ridiculous. It's like saying those ''little'' countries count for more than 2 times what Latin America, Asia, Australia, Middle East and Africa sold together. I would like to remind you that the ''Other'' Europe which counts for 10% of WW sales here in VGC, include a lot of major countries which neogaf counted (i.e Russia, the Netherlands, Poland, Austria, Hungary and many others).

So when I calculated 5% for the missing european countries, I was in fact quite generous.

Also read what the op said: Australia is already included by PD, so no need to add it either. The op was also more generous than you in estimating the bundles to 300k.

Based on PD numbers and the neogaf chart, 400k is the minimum number of the overtracking, it could be higher than that actually, unless you can explain to me the actual tracking without erroneous maths or incorrect assumptions.



atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:

Let me actually do the math too. VGC claim 3.266 million for EMEAA, that Neogaf article claims 2.008 million, so the difference is 1.258 million. Now lets add in all the missing factors.

That article doesn't source the other 33 countries in EMEAA which you quoted ioi claiming that make approximatly 10% of WW sales. Now GT5 is much more popular in EMEAA then Americas, so instead of using 10% WW sales, I will use 20% EMEAA sales. Same Logic will also apply for ME/A, instead of using the WW figure of 1.2% I will use 2.4% of EMEAA sales.

Note Russia, and Poland are part of the 17 countries included by NeoGaf. The 33 missing countries are smaller, or poorer ones, like Ukraine, Finland, Greece, Netherlands etc. Your math is wrong because of an incorrect assumption, stick with the 10% WW sales ioi provided.

PD claim 230k shipped units in Asia. This doesn't cover all of asia, but it's also a shipped value, so I will just use that as a number for the number of units sold in all of Asia.

The last location to include is Australia which accounts for 3% of WW sales. However from what I read Australia's game sales and economy mimic the USA's (Two countries with the highest Obesity rate btw, and they are a lot higher then any other country). So I will just use 3% of WW sales here.

So 1.258 - 0.230 (Shipped to Asia) - 0.159 (Australia) - 0.732 (Others Europe + Middle East and Africa) = 0.137

So the difference from VGC EMEAA data and the data from NeoGaf is 137k. However when you think about it, 100k or so is from bundles so the difference is on 37k. Given VGC is a sales estimate site, this is pretty good.

GT5 is not over or under tracked. I thought people would be able to see that the difference in sales was easily accounted for.

What? Are you serious? There are so many mistakes or assumptions in your math that I just cannot take it serioulsy:

First of all saying the missing european countries count for 20% of WW sales is just....ridiculous. It's like saying those ''little'' countries count for more than 2 times what Latin America, Asia, Australia, Middle East and Africa sold together. I would like to remind you that the ''Other'' Europe which counts for 10% of WW sales here in VGC, include a lot of major countries which neogaf counted (i.e Russia, the Netherlands, Poland, Austria, Hungary and many others).

So when I calculated 5% for the missing european countries, I was in fact quite generous.

Also read what the op said: Australia is already included by PD, so no need to add it either. The op was also more generous than you in estimating the bundles to 300k.

Based on PD numbers and the neogaf chart, 400k is the minimum number of the overtracking, it could be higher than that actually, unless you can explain to me the actual tracking without erroneous maths or incorrect assumptions.

You should re-read my post... You didn't follow my math at all.

I did not claim the missing countries count for 20% of WW sales. 10% of Worldwide sales, 20% of EMEAA sales. It's more accurate since GT5 sold better per console in EMEAA then Americas.

Poland is a big market for Software, but the other 3 you named aren't. Since Neogaf does count Poland though, lets say 8% of WW sales are due to Others EMEAA? so 16% of EMEAA data? Still the numbers aren't too bad. Instead of a 140k difference, there is a 420k difference. Someone above said 300k could be due to bundles, is 420k that much of a stretch?

Australia is not a part of Asia.... Where does it say PD counts Australia data?

GT5 may be overtracked, but I trust VGC. I don't think it's overtracked by that much. 100k at most.



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