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atma998 on 28 November 2011
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Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
 

Oh I see! Yea I was making assumptions on the size of Africa and the Middle East. I was wrong, but my reasoning is still correct. Others Europe plays a bigger influence on sales then I gave it credit, and Africa/Middle East plays a smaller role.

Still the OP uses sources that do not include information from Others Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and likely parts of Asia. That combines for 11-14% of worldwide sales, which is where the missing sales come from. Overall the % of sales missing in the OP is accounted for, and that's the important point I was trying to push.

This is becoming a bit confusing. Let's try to keep it simple:

According to VGC, GT5 sold 5.29M in 2010 WW, including 3.27M in EMEAA.

The neogaf chart says it sold 2.00M in Europe (17 countries) and PD says they have shipped 230k (probably not all sold, but whatever...) in Asia. Africa and Middle East is 1.2% of 5.29M = 0.06M, which makes a total of 2.29M.

Now there is only a couple of european countries missing to have all EMEAA, right? There is still a 1 million discrepency. Other Europe counts for 10% but also contains some of the 17 countries included by neogaf (like Russia, Poland, Austria, etc.). Let's say there is still half of the other Europe not counted by neogaf, which represents 5% of WW sales, which makes another 0.26M (5% of 5.29M).

Then we have a total of 2.55M of sales for GT5 in EMEAA vs. 3.27M. Assuming there was 300k bundles like the op said, the discrepency is still of 420k.

So it seems the game was overtracked by at least 400k. Maybe I missed something and that's what I would like to know and no one has been able to explain it yet.

Let me actually do the math too. VGC claim 3.266 million for EMEAA, that Neogaf article claims 2.008 million, so the difference is 1.258 million. Now lets add in all the missing factors.

That article doesn't source the other 33 countries in EMEAA which you quoted ioi claiming that make approximatly 10% of WW sales. Now GT5 is much more popular in EMEAA then Americas, so instead of using 10% WW sales, I will use 20% EMEAA sales. Same Logic will also apply for ME/A, instead of using the WW figure of 1.2% I will use 2.4% of EMEAA sales.

Note Russia, and Poland are part of the 17 countries included by NeoGaf. The 33 missing countries are smaller, or poorer ones, like Ukraine, Finland, Greece, Netherlands etc. Your math is wrong because of an incorrect assumption, stick with the 10% WW sales ioi provided.

PD claim 230k shipped units in Asia. This doesn't cover all of asia, but it's also a shipped value, so I will just use that as a number for the number of units sold in all of Asia.

The last location to include is Australia which accounts for 3% of WW sales. However from what I read Australia's game sales and economy mimic the USA's (Two countries with the highest Obesity rate btw, and they are a lot higher then any other country). So I will just use 3% of WW sales here.

So 1.258 - 0.230 (Shipped to Asia) - 0.159 (Australia) - 0.732 (Others Europe + Middle East and Africa) = 0.137

So the difference from VGC EMEAA data and the data from NeoGaf is 137k. However when you think about it, 100k or so is from bundles so the difference is on 37k. Given VGC is a sales estimate site, this is pretty good.

GT5 is not over or under tracked. I thought people would be able to see that the difference in sales was easily accounted for.

What? Are you serious? There are so many mistakes or assumptions in your math that I just cannot take it serioulsy:

First of all saying the missing european countries count for 20% of WW sales is just....ridiculous. It's like saying those ''little'' countries count for more than 2 times what Latin America, Asia, Australia, Middle East and Africa sold together. I would like to remind you that the ''Other'' Europe which counts for 10% of WW sales here in VGC, include a lot of major countries which neogaf counted (i.e Russia, the Netherlands, Poland, Austria, Hungary and many others).

So when I calculated 5% for the missing european countries, I was in fact quite generous.

Also read what the op said: Australia is already included by PD, so no need to add it either. The op was also more generous than you in estimating the bundles to 300k.

Based on PD numbers and the neogaf chart, 400k is the minimum number of the overtracking, it could be higher than that actually, unless you can explain to me the actual tracking without erroneous maths or incorrect assumptions.