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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz is overtracking Halo Reach or undertracking Alan Wake

yo_john117 on 17 November 2011
pezus said:
yo_john117 said:
shanbcn said:
Nsanity said:
Again, NPD doesnt track all of Americas nor does it include those bundled with hardware.


VGZ have it around 6.7m in all of NA till Sep 2011. Lets add 600k to 4.7 and its 5.3 in all of Americas. The recent bundles have been digital copies and i dont think MS bundled almost 1.5m retail copies of Reach in NA. Even in best case its overtracked by 1m which will mean 500k bundles.

 

Your doing it slightly wrong. First you need to add in all of the Halo Reach special edition bundles to the NA numbers (of which there were a ton lik ioi said) But before I get started I have to say, like you there is going to be a lot of assumptions (because we really don't know)

 

So first off we take 4.75 for the US numbers then add in about 500k of the Reach bundles (that's on the low end of things) so that's 5.5 million off totally assumed sales in US now do the vgchartz ratio thing of 13% (which we don't know is actually that accurate) so that's 700k consoles sold elsewhere in the Americas and you get 6.2 million sold in Americas

 

So worst case for these guesswork numbers would about 500k overtracked. 

 

But really it's all just guesswork and worthless assumptions between the both of us since our numbers depend on how much Halo Reach has sold off of bundles and what the ratio for the US vs the rest of the Americas are, neither of which we know. So could it be 1 million units overtracked? Yes, but it could also be tracked perfectly...we just don't know.

 

No, worst case scenario is (4.75 US+500k bundles)/0.88 = ~6m. 700k overtracked. Best case scenario is (4.75+1.2m bundles)/0.88 = ~6.75m. But, really, 500k copies of a special edition console is unheard of, I think. So it's not just the special edition bundles, but normal 360+Reach bundles as well.

Either way, it's either become one of the heavily bundled games or it's heavily overtracked.

You guys don't seem to really get the actual point of that post. Which is to say right now it's all assumptions as to if Halo Reach is over tracked or not.



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yo_john117 on 18 November 2011
pezus said:
yo_john117 said:
pezus said:
yo_john117 said:
shanbcn said:
Nsanity said:
Again, NPD doesnt track all of Americas nor does it include those bundled with hardware.


VGZ have it around 6.7m in all of NA till Sep 2011. Lets add 600k to 4.7 and its 5.3 in all of Americas. The recent bundles have been digital copies and i dont think MS bundled almost 1.5m retail copies of Reach in NA. Even in best case its overtracked by 1m which will mean 500k bundles.

 

Your doing it slightly wrong. First you need to add in all of the Halo Reach special edition bundles to the NA numbers (of which there were a ton lik ioi said) But before I get started I have to say, like you there is going to be a lot of assumptions (because we really don't know)

 

So first off we take 4.75 for the US numbers then add in about 500k of the Reach bundles (that's on the low end of things) so that's 5.5 million off totally assumed sales in US now do the vgchartz ratio thing of 13% (which we don't know is actually that accurate) so that's 700k consoles sold elsewhere in the Americas and you get 6.2 million sold in Americas

 

So worst case for these guesswork numbers would about 500k overtracked. 

 

But really it's all just guesswork and worthless assumptions between the both of us since our numbers depend on how much Halo Reach has sold off of bundles and what the ratio for the US vs the rest of the Americas are, neither of which we know. So could it be 1 million units overtracked? Yes, but it could also be tracked perfectly...we just don't know.

 

No, worst case scenario is (4.75 US+500k bundles)/0.88 = ~6m. 700k overtracked. Best case scenario is (4.75+1.2m bundles)/0.88 = ~6.75m. But, really, 500k copies of a special edition console is unheard of, I think. So it's not just the special edition bundles, but normal 360+Reach bundles as well.

Either way, it's either become one of the heavily bundled games or it's heavily overtracked.

You guys don't seem to really get the actual point of that post. Which is to say right now it's all assumptions as to if Halo Reach is over tracked or not.

Of course, but they are not baseless assumptions.

No you are right they aren't baseless assumptions, but they are mostly guesswork.



Jexy on 18 November 2011
thx1139 said:
ZaneWane said:
Jexy said:
I say, if you can track it because it's bundled... track it. A sale is a sale. For Reach, Alan Wake, and any other game that is bundled with any console.

agree

I agree. VGC knows about these console sales so it shouldnt matter if physical disk or not. They dont discard sales of bundled discs that dont get played (we have to Wii Play discs and 1 Kinect Adventures disc that have never been used).  I can see not tracking digital sales (notice I said sales) because no way for VGC to find out that info unless MS, Sony, Nintendo wants to open up the books.

Yeah, i mean look at boxofficemojo, they have done the best they could have for every movie released, and sometimes they were able to get overseas totals... and sometimes they weren't.  They are a well respected movie numbers site, and they don't make any apologies for doing the best they could do to track the numbers... if they didn't get it, they didn't get it because it was too old, but if a studio releases numbers, they take them.  No reason for this site not to do the same.  It may help its respectability too... given that it is lacking that from outside sources, despite their efforts and hard work so far.



BOOM!  FACE KICK!

NotStan on 18 November 2011

Yes but you see, if they start tracking digital the numbers will seem even higher, which in turn will result in more people calling the numbers BS when compared with the US NPD, without actually knowing how the tracking works on this site when compared with NPD.



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Stadelhuber on 18 November 2011
NotStan said:
Yes but you see, if they start tracking digital the numbers will seem even higher, which in turn will result in more people calling the numbers BS when compared with the US NPD, without actually knowing how the tracking works on this site when compared with NPD.


Possible, but didn't npd announce that they want to track digital sales?

 

Answering my own question: Yes, they did.

http://www.joystiq.com/2011/08/08/npd-teaming-with-eedar-to-track-digital-sales/



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Slimebeast on 18 November 2011

I don't think bundled free copies of digital downloads should ever be counted in sales numbers. Most ppl who buy the bundles don't even bother to download them, especially smaller games like Alan Wake (I love Alan Wake but let's be realistic here).



ethomaz on 18 November 2011
kowenicki said:
If you can track it then track it... if you cant track then clearly... you cant track it.

Ignoring a number you actually know to be correct seems a bit silly to me.

But the other digital sales from Live??? It's impossible today to VGC know how much Reach sold by digital sales... it just know the voucher one.



Nsanity on 21 November 2011
kowenicki said:
If you can track it then track it... if you cant track then clearly... you cant track it.

Ignoring a number you actually know to be correct seems a bit silly to me.

Pretty much.



miz1q2w3e on 21 November 2011

Increase the Alan Wake sales!



sales2099 on 21 November 2011

Ok. Im gonna say what everyone else is thinking.

Halo is Halo. Its the flagship. We make the exception for Halo.........because its Halo.

Alan Wake did not earn the right.

:)



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