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Forums - Nintendo - Malstrom: 'The Big Picture' problem underlying Nintendo's decline

RolStoppable said:
...

But seriously, the economy in the coming years and the ever strengthening yen will make the eighth generation hell for Nintendo. They will possibly burn through billions of dollar.

They have the cash reserves. The only effect of continuously bad results would be a change of management forced on them by stockholders, and I can't see even a bad manager failing to make sequels to 15-20m selling games like Iwata is doing (NES style Mario and Zelda).



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RolStoppable said:

1) I don't agree that it works in favor of your point. The question was if Nintendo's mentality was the same and it was. Third parties made the difference in what the NES and Wii eventually became. Suppose Atari and Sega operated their businesses at losses of hundreds of millions $ per year (like Microsoft and Sony did in the seventh generation), the NES's success wouldn't have been the same. That kind of money could have bought Atari and Sega a lot of third party exclusives, making the NES library worse than it was.

2) Anyway, the long term profitability of the 3DS isn't really in question, but the fact that you admit the 3DS won't surpass the DS lifetime totals should give you a hint that Nintendo changed their gameplan, because this will mark the first instance of decline in Nintendo's handheld business. You didn't offer a different explanation on why the 3DS won't surpass the DS, so I feel inclined to take that as silent agreement.

1)  We'll have to agree to disagree here but I'll meet you half way; I do agree that Nintendo was focused on games that appealed to the masses with both the NES (SMB, Duck Hunt), and the Wii (Wii Sports, Wii Fit) as opposed to the majority of games on the N64/GC.  So yes, putting the "fun" back in gaming was their goal for both.  But because the market was in completely different shape at the time of the NES than the Wii, I still feel that Nintendo's mentality was a bit different.  Remember that the NES launch in 1985 (US) was coming off of the big video game crash of '83.  I remember many retailers here in the US flat out refused to carry the NES at first, as home gaming had pretty much been killed due to Atari flooding the market with garbage.  Fast forward to 2006 when the market was in amazing shape with competitors who have enormous amounts of money and resources.  Nintendo knew they could not win a direct fight with Sony or Microsoft, so they instead purposely differentiated themselves with the Wii.  To summarize, the NES mentality was not about defending against direct competitors, but about showing all people (kids, teens, adults, families, and arcade dwellers) that home gaming was back.  The Wii mentality was instead about making something so radically different that the competition was automatically pitted against each other.  The big difference to me is that the Wii focused on "blue ocean" expansion, but left out many teens/twenty somethings.  The NES focused on revitalizing the market for everyone.

2)  Actually Nintendo's first decline in the hand held business was with the GBA, which didn't sell as well as its predecessor, and is the very reason I find the GBA and 3DS so similar.  I don't think that the 3DS will match the DS in sales because, frankly, the DS was a rare phenomenon and it'll be awhile before anything reaches those sales numbers again.  It offered completely new gameplay concepts; something that the 3DS or GBA just can't compete with, as they are basically power upgrades to their respective predecessors.



Soleron said:
RolStoppable said:
...

But seriously, the economy in the coming years and the ever strengthening yen will make the eighth generation hell for Nintendo. They will possibly burn through billions of dollar.

They have the cash reserves. The only effect of continuously bad results would be a change of management forced on them by stockholders, and I can't see even a bad manager failing to make sequels to 15-20m selling games like Iwata is doing (NES style Mario and Zelda).

10 million seems to be the limit of Zelda's appeal. Twilight Princess is the top seller for the whole of the franchise...



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Interesting article. Least to say.



BluGamer23 said:

1,2,3 ..new generation nintendo doomsayers!

3DS is doom3D! and the not yet released wiiU with little information is doom3D!.. so this time nintendo is definitely going to file for bankruptcy.. and pull out of the gaming business right?.. all because he cant get his 2D mario fix.. hurrah!

all the best nintendo! and thank you for the ride!

... mmmmM smell that.. dandelions! ..


This proves you haven't read his writings, becuase those things are NOT what he wants. He wants Nintendo to stop going directions that lose their marketshare and customers. He wants Nintendo to go back on top, stay there, and for other game companies to go back to what made them awesome before.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

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LordTheNightKnight said:
BluGamer23 said:

1,2,3 ..new generation nintendo doomsayers!

3DS is doom3D! and the not yet released wiiU with little information is doom3D!.. so this time nintendo is definitely going to file for bankruptcy.. and pull out of the gaming business right?.. all because he cant get his 2D mario fix.. hurrah!

all the best nintendo! and thank you for the ride!

... mmmmM smell that.. dandelions! ..


This proves you haven't read his writings, becuase those things are NOT what he wants. He wants Nintendo to stop going directions that lose their marketshare and customers. He wants Nintendo to go back on top, stay there, and for other game companies to go back to what made them awesome before.

What "direction" do you think Nintendo is heading with the 3ds?



My 3ds friendcode: 5413-0232-9676 (G-cyber)



cyberninja45 said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
BluGamer23 said:

1,2,3 ..new generation nintendo doomsayers!

3DS is doom3D! and the not yet released wiiU with little information is doom3D!.. so this time nintendo is definitely going to file for bankruptcy.. and pull out of the gaming business right?.. all because he cant get his 2D mario fix.. hurrah!

all the best nintendo! and thank you for the ride!

... mmmmM smell that.. dandelions! ..


This proves you haven't read his writings, becuase those things are NOT what he wants. He wants Nintendo to stop going directions that lose their marketshare and customers. He wants Nintendo to go back on top, stay there, and for other game companies to go back to what made them awesome before.

What "direction" do you think Nintendo is heading with the 3ds?


I'm not refering to myself. The context of my comment was clearly about that user misunderstanding what Malstrom was discussing (as in not even looking at it and just assuming it was "Nintendo should go third party" crap).



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

LordTheNightKnight said:
cyberninja45 said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
BluGamer23 said:

1,2,3 ..new generation nintendo doomsayers!

3DS is doom3D! and the not yet released wiiU with little information is doom3D!.. so this time nintendo is definitely going to file for bankruptcy.. and pull out of the gaming business right?.. all because he cant get his 2D mario fix.. hurrah!

all the best nintendo! and thank you for the ride!

... mmmmM smell that.. dandelions! ..


This proves you haven't read his writings, becuase those things are NOT what he wants. He wants Nintendo to stop going directions that lose their marketshare and customers. He wants Nintendo to go back on top, stay there, and for other game companies to go back to what made them awesome before.

What "direction" do you think Nintendo is heading with the 3ds?


I'm not refering to myself. The context of my comment was clearly about that user misunderstanding what Malstrom was discussing (as in not even looking at it and just assuming it was "Nintendo should go third party" crap).


misunderstanding malstrom?. lol!.. am I wrong when I say his very bitter because he does not get his 2D mario he said this himself.. all i see is most of his rant stems from not getting 2d mario.. which is really distracting from his other analysis .. all i see is .. wahh wahh no 2D mario.. ffuu nintendo!.. fffuu miyamoto!.. dieee!

the nintendo should go third party comment is about the endless calls of the hardcore and haters for nintendo to die.. I mainly just categorized all the doomsayers together.. same thing every year for nintendo.. which for some reason i think works well for them.. doomed since 1889



 

"misunderstanding malstrom?. lol!.. am I wrong when I say his very bitter because he does not get his 2D mario he said this himself.. all i see is most of his rant stems from not getting 2d mario.. which is really distracting from his other analysis .. all i see is .. wahh wahh no 2D mario.. ffuu nintendo!.. fffuu miyamoto!.. dieee!"

No, he's bitter because 2D Mario actually sells better than 3D Mario (we can see it on this site), and the former is a killer app, the latter isn't. He's not acting like Nintendo is doomed themselves. He's stating that this console direction is not going to help Nintendo grow, but that the Wii and DS direction will. That isn't "doomed". It's "this way doesn't work, the other way does".



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

bobgamez said:
Since when has nintendo EVER tried to be hardcore? The wii was as un hardcore as it gets, I don't even understand the complaints. What are you expecting from them?


Depends what you mean by "hardcore." While I think the term "hardcore" itself is ridiculous, I guess if I HAD to define it, (at least based off of what seems to be how the term is used today), I'd interprut it as games that appeal to a small niche rather than a mass audience, and usually consist of cinematic, non-essential elements of gaming like cutscenes, heavy amounts of narrative/dialogue, and complex control schemes.

So going by this definition, yes, Nintendo FREQUENTLY tries to be "hardcore," which they usually fail at (N64, Gamecube, 3DS, some of the later Wii stuff like Metroid Other M), because that is the market of Sony and MS. What Nintendo excels at most, as Malstrom has repeatedly said, as well as many in here, are those arcade-style games - easy to learn, difficult to master, that brings the gamer right in the action and cuts the "fluff" that many modern games consist of. These games are often mistaken or inncorectly branded as "casual" because they tend to be easier to get into and thus appeal to a mass market.

Now for MY money, these arcadey type of games are far more "hardcore" than these modern games that are more interactive movies that somehow got the brand of hardcore, but that's another story..

The problem with Nintendo right now is, they are running from that formula that made the NES, Wii, and somewhat SNES, a huge success. This is - arcade style games. This is what they are best at, as they are essentially an arcade style company, as is Sega. Now they are reverting back to the PC style, or cinematic style games that Sony and MS excel best at, which is why when they try to be like Sony and MS, instead of just being themselves, they get trounced by them and alienate many of their fans.