Good points in this thread. I hate to say it now that Sony won, but physical media is still the king, and will be for a couple of more years.

That doesn't change the fact though that Blu-ray won't be a mass market product in a long time - people still have to replace their standard TV sets to those 40" HDs, and tons of people will still be perfectly happy running ordinary DVDs on them.

I really like the idea of on-demand and download - but I doubt it's gonna replace physical media such as DVD (and now BR) quickly enough to harm BR having a reasonable time in the sun.

Why - percentages.

Simply put (and I mean globally, you need to think beyond your own borders for corporations such as Warners, etc.) access to high enough reliable bandwidth will not be there for enough of the population. Nor will confidence in the technology or the business model.

Both technically, and perhaps more importanlty physiologically, the average consumer isn't going to be ready for downloads and on demand for a long, long time (like I'm looking at my kids).

Most likely you'll see production of standard TVs die to push rapid uptake of HD TV (aligned to rapid price drops).

At the same time (assumning in near future BR is indeed proclaimed the winner - which I think it will be) you will see BR players being pushed over DVD. Then you will see DVD players pulled so you have to buy a BR player even if only to play DVDs (and of course buy new content on BR).

I know music has swung strongly to digital - but you need to remember the vast difference in file size and the way quality is viewed across these two differing mediums.

Personally, what I want is to by the right (for the rest of my lifetime) to a piece of content (let's say a song and a film). I then want to always be able to have is made available across tech changes and on different platforms of my choice - so at home, while travelling, etc.

But you have to ask - would content owners prefer you (a'la Tommy Jones line in MIB) to buy the content again with each new tech change, or buy it once and forever?

@EliteStance,

What's on your avatar?

Dude do you know how hard it's to download all those GB, in like 4 o 5 movies my compurer will be full.

Man i prefer physical media instead.

I don't see d/l replacing discs just yet. At least not legal, paid for d/ls. People often want to be able to watch a movie a few times over a thirty year period. You could rely on a dvd lasting that long, but not a hard-drive.

I'm sure things will progress as d/l speeds pick up, and the internet becomes more deeply intergrated into everyone's home entertainment systems, but bl-ray still has a chance to dig in before then.

For me, blu-ray is still competing against DVD. So long as blu-ray discs cost so much more than DVDs, it's not going to be worth my while to switch. I've still not switched to HD, and see getting a surround sound system as a far more important upgrade to HD anyway. For watching films and programs not designed to be viewed in HD, the new format is just as likely to highlight faults as it is to increase enjoyment.

But still, the decline of HD is a big win for sony and the PS3. I think the PS3 will now come to dominate the 360 over the next year, with casuals seeing its ability to play blu-rays as a significant bonus, and having enough attatchment to the playstation brand to not be overly worried about the lacking games lineup.

Whether this will lead to developers devoting the resources to the PS3 to create a truly impressive games library, and how long this will take, I don't know.

I bet microsoft have stepped up plans for the 360 replacement though.

Im sorry but HD downloads wont take over for a LONG time at the rate we are going with companies like comcast and cox legit downloads wont last because of invisible caps and limited bandwith and the fact that they decided to use sandvine to solve expansion problems instead of actually expanding their network... Hopefully we wont get a company that reacts like rogers in canada where they actually change web pages and put in their own content

You can go ahead and disagree all you want but the fact remains that DVD players were cheaper than the PS2 when it released and were selling by the millions. If you don't believe me, go ahead and Google it.

Some people on this forum have an amazingly short memory. 

We have DSL, at 6mbps.  We could get Cox cable internet that maxes out at 15 mbps, but it's super expensive to get that amount of bandwidth, and Cox is very unreliable in our area, shutting out randomly. It wouldn't mean much to me personally in the end, as I'm on wi-fi maxing out at 54 mbitps.

I think the fastest we can get here is FiOS, with 15mbps both down and up. 

Well, I already watch online movies using netflix, but I do have a growing BD and HDDVD library, along with a TON of DVDs. Personally, I would love for them to adopt of download service for movies, so I don't have to go anywhere or wait for them to arrive in the mail (even though it only takes a day where I live). My internet is 10mbps, and only 50/month, and almost everyone I know has the same service, and HDTVs, so they would probably like the idea too. Those interested in BD for their HDTVs, more than likely have really fast internet, which would mean if the convenience is there, they would have no problems with an online movies service. Especially if the price is right!!

Digital Downloads will not happen as a main source for at least 5 years. As for DVDs staying the dominant format, that will only happen if the movie studios let it. All they have to do is drop the price for players to 99$ and kill the DVD format all together. BD players all play DVDs so everyone can keep there collections. BD could also do what HD-DVD did on there movies by affering both a DVD based version and the BD version. This would still force people to buy BD but allow them to have an option of which one of there old players will play it. I see the manufacturers stopping production of DVD players and movies within the next 2-3 years. For the people that already bought a ton of HD-DVD movies, and wasted there momey on the players, thats what they get for not doing there homework. Anyone who looked at the support from the beggining should have seen this coming. The only reason Warner waited so long to pick sides was because the BD players were so expensive. Why not get paid twice.