I really like the idea of on-demand and download - but I doubt it's gonna replace physical media such as DVD (and now BR) quickly enough to harm BR having a reasonable time in the sun.
Why - percentages.
Simply put (and I mean globally, you need to think beyond your own borders for corporations such as Warners, etc.) access to high enough reliable bandwidth will not be there for enough of the population. Nor will confidence in the technology or the business model.
Both technically, and perhaps more importanlty physiologically, the average consumer isn't going to be ready for downloads and on demand for a long, long time (like I'm looking at my kids).
Most likely you'll see production of standard TVs die to push rapid uptake of HD TV (aligned to rapid price drops).
At the same time (assumning in near future BR is indeed proclaimed the winner - which I think it will be) you will see BR players being pushed over DVD. Then you will see DVD players pulled so you have to buy a BR player even if only to play DVDs (and of course buy new content on BR).
I know music has swung strongly to digital - but you need to remember the vast difference in file size and the way quality is viewed across these two differing mediums.
Personally, what I want is to by the right (for the rest of my lifetime) to a piece of content (let's say a song and a film). I then want to always be able to have is made available across tech changes and on different platforms of my choice - so at home, while travelling, etc.
But you have to ask - would content owners prefer you (a'la Tommy Jones line in MIB) to buy the content again with each new tech change, or buy it once and forever?
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