Currently according to VGC PS3's peak year in Japan is 2009 with 1,829,784 sold. Last year, despite seeing an overall worldwide increase in sales, PS3 saw a decline in Japan of about 276k to 1,553,638. Currently PS3 is down YOY compared to 2010 by about 64k with just under a million units sold. So to peak in Japan this year PS3 needs to be up YOY by about 340k from now to the end of the year, or about 70%. This might seem like a tall order but with PS3's excellent holiday lineup, particularly contrasted with last years very poor holiday, it is quite achievable. Infact I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 pull it off with a week to spare.

Thanks to Kowenicki for the chart format.

Potentially major Hardware impacting events:

11/17 Scarlet Red, Splash Blue, and Limited Edition Ninokuni PS3 models released
12/15 FFXIII-2 and Limited edition FFXIII-2 bundle releases

Other major to mid-tier SW releases:

10/13 Dead Rising 2 'Off the Record', Ace Combat Assault Horizon
10/20 Macross F Hybrid movie pack
10/27 Idol Master 2
11/2 Uncharted 3, Battlefield 3
11/10 Sengoku Basara 3 Banquet, Metal Gear Peace Walker HD Edition
11/17 Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (subbed edition)
11/23 Metal Gear HD collection, Saint Seiya Wing
12/1 Mobile Suit Gundam Etreme Vs, Tekken Hybrid
12/17 Blazblue Continuum Shift Extended

good call. i think you'll hit you mark. i don't expect PS3 to dip below 30k for the rest of this month in Japan and i expect it to sell 10k more then 360 for the rest of this month but i also don't know wht else is coming out this month so i may be off on that number.

i also expect PS3 to do well enough in Japan and the U.S. to equal 360 numbers and the EMEAA's to give PS3 the win in Nov. Dec.

next month will be a rivaled month for both consoles WW with battle field boosting 360 sells and a small boost for PS3. COD will boost both about evenly and with Batman preorders being about even so i don't expect 360 to fare much better but its highly likely 360 will take Nov. UC3 and FFXIII-2 boost will help. i expect PS3 to take 2wks in Nov. and 360 to lead the rest.

consoles are weak in these late yrs so i don't expect much but PS360 will sell about even through the rest of the yr and Wi definately not take the yr so don't count on it.

for Dec. i don't expect either console to fare much better then the other, but if the big3 do there best advertisement then a Dec. victory for either console maker is likely and the adjustments everybody's waiting for will be interesting to see but i won't likely be here to see it.

PS3 will win 2012 and maybe the holiday season that has always been unkind to it.

You should be adding the major releases along with their dates, that would help a lot in finding possible weeks where HW will see a boost.


Go to http://news.dengeki.com/soft/schedule/ that's the most reliable schedule IMO

I wonder how FFXIII-2's hardware boost will compare to FFXIII's.

Updated. And thanks for the release list Trestres. I don't intend on updating every week though since it would be to much of a pain with Japan constantly seeing small 500-1k adjustments. I'll update every 2 or 3 weeks.

Updated. Sorry for the wait, I've been on vacation. Looking slightly harder now, although I wasn't really expecting any gains prior to the holidays anyway. Ninokuni/Red/Blue week should be interesting.

@Pezus Look at the table. FFXIII-2 doesn't need to give even remotely the same boost as FFXIII. If it did it would instantly clinch the victory (over 150k over the target for that week).

Last year had a little title called GT5 and u expect a sequel to a title that already released on PS3 to be a bigger boost.

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=40790®=Japan&date=40797

Third game from the series on the console.

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=40797®=Japan&date=40517

Same here. Never underestimate the power of a limited edition console in Japan.

might be hard but i think it will do it with the recent pricecut

No it wont.

it peaked in 2009 and now is dying out.

been number one console in a decreasing sales period is not a big deal!