Prediction: PS3 will peak this year in Japan

[postofficebuddy]

 

Currently according to VGC PS3's peak year in Japan is 2009 with 1,829,784 sold. Last year, despite seeing an overall worldwide increase in sales, PS3 saw a decline in Japan of about 276k to 1,553,638. Currently PS3 is down YOY compared to 2010 by about 64k with just under a million units sold. So to peak in Japan this year PS3 needs to be up YOY by about 340k from now to the end of the year, or about 70%. This might seem like a tall order but with PS3's excellent holiday lineup, particularly contrasted with last years very poor holiday, it is quite achievable. Infact I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 pull it off with a week to spare.

2010	2010 Sales	2011	2011 Needs	Actual Sales	2011 total	Over/Under by	Cumulative
10/10	19,980	10/9	33,826	28,803	1,028,880	-5,023	-5,023
10/17	21,817	10/16	36,936	28,753	1,057,633	-8,183	-13,206
10/24	19,881	10/23	33,658	23,895	1,081,528	-9,763	-22,969
10/31	26,239	10/30	44,423	24,705	1,106,233	-19,718	-42,687
11/7	21,726	11/6	36,782	26,445	1,132,678	-10,337	-53,024
11/14	19,262	11/13	32,611
11/21	27,867	11/20	47,179
11/28	65,618	11/27	111,091
12/5	40,153	12/4	67,979
12/12	42,254	12/11	71,536
12/19	48,821	12/18	82,654
12/26	62,944	12/25	106,564
1/2	73,744	1/1	124,849
Total	490,306		830,088

Thanks to Kowenicki for the chart format.

Potentially major Hardware impacting events:

11/17 Scarlet Red, Splash Blue, and Limited Edition Ninokuni PS3 models released
12/15 FFXIII-2 and Limited edition FFXIII-2 bundle releases

 

Other major to mid-tier SW releases:

10/13 Dead Rising 2 'Off the Record', Ace Combat Assault Horizon
10/20 Macross F Hybrid movie pack
10/27 Idol Master 2
11/2 Uncharted 3, Battlefield 3
11/10 Sengoku Basara 3 Banquet, Metal Gear Peace Walker HD Edition
11/17 Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (subbed edition)
11/23 Metal Gear HD collection, Saint Seiya Wing
12/1 Mobile Suit Gundam Etreme Vs, Tekken Hybrid
12/17 Blazblue Continuum Shift Extended