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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360 Vs. Playstation 3 2012 - *February* Update

ils411 on 03 November 2011
yo_john117 said:
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:

How about you learn to debate without attacking/name calling people. 

It's not in it's dying years. This year the 360 will probably match or be up YOY in the Americas not to mention next year it will probably do close to this year because there will be a price cut.

And you are assuming that the 360 will stop selling completely when the next box comes out which is not going to be the case at all. The only reason why MS pulled the original Xbox is because it was a black hole for money.

If you look at the numbers you will see it is possible that the 360 overtakes the PS2 sales in the Americas.

If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.


Xbox360 outsell PS2 in the US? Its in the realm of possibility. As long as MS doesn't drop support like a rock and continue selling it while releasing good games for it even after the nextbox releases I could see it happening.

IMHO, the x360 is due for another hardware revision (Same with the PS3). Maybe MS will release a new true slim veriosn at $199 for the HDD version and $149 for the no HDD version. It will surelly take away sales from the Wii U.

IF was MS and or Sony, thats what I'd do to counter the Wii U and at the same time extend the life of my console. But thats just me.



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yo_john117 on 03 November 2011
ils411 said:
yo_john117 said:
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:

How about you learn to debate without attacking/name calling people. 

It's not in it's dying years. This year the 360 will probably match or be up YOY in the Americas not to mention next year it will probably do close to this year because there will be a price cut.

And you are assuming that the 360 will stop selling completely when the next box comes out which is not going to be the case at all. The only reason why MS pulled the original Xbox is because it was a black hole for money.

If you look at the numbers you will see it is possible that the 360 overtakes the PS2 sales in the Americas.

If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.


Xbox360 outsell PS2 in the US? Its in the realm of possibility. As long as MS doesn't drop support like a rock and continue selling it while releasing good games for it even after the nextbox releases I could see it happening.

IMHO, the x360 is due for another hardware revision (Same with the PS3). Maybe MS will release a new true slim veriosn at $199 for the HDD version and $149 for the no HDD version. It will surelly take away sales from the Wii U.

IF was MS and or Sony, thats what I'd do to counter the Wii U and at the same time extend the life of my console. But thats just me.

Yeah I highly doubt MS will drop support for the 360 like they did for the Xbox. The only reason they did it for the Xbox was because it was a literal black hole of money for them.



thismeintiel on 03 November 2011
yo_john117 said:
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:

How about you learn to debate without attacking/name calling people. 

It's not in it's dying years. This year the 360 will probably match or be up YOY in the Americas not to mention next year it will probably do close to this year because there will be a price cut.

And you are assuming that the 360 will stop selling completely when the next box comes out which is not going to be the case at all. The only reason why MS pulled the original Xbox is because it was a black hole for money.

If you look at the numbers you will see it is possible that the 360 overtakes the PS2 sales in the Americas.

If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.

I think you're not realizing how huge Kinect was last year.  It helped push the 360 as the "it" thing to buy for the holidays, especially in America.  That isn't going to happen again this year.  And not that it's a big difference, but it actually sold 4.11 million.  In other words, the 360 is going to have to sell EXACTLY like it did when the Slim model was new and when Kinect was new.  This is just not going to happen.  Also, that YOY is definitely going to start to change next week when this week's sales are revealed, as this is the week Kinect launched.  I just don't see the 360 selling ~256K next week in Americas alone.  And while the following week has MW3, last year had Black Ops, Kinect, and the Slim effect.  Again 360 is going to see a huge boost, but I'm not seeing a boost to ~311K in Americas.



 

yo_john117 on 04 November 2011
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:

How about you learn to debate without attacking/name calling people. 

It's not in it's dying years. This year the 360 will probably match or be up YOY in the Americas not to mention next year it will probably do close to this year because there will be a price cut.

And you are assuming that the 360 will stop selling completely when the next box comes out which is not going to be the case at all. The only reason why MS pulled the original Xbox is because it was a black hole for money.

If you look at the numbers you will see it is possible that the 360 overtakes the PS2 sales in the Americas.

If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.

I think you're not realizing how huge Kinect was last year.  It helped push the 360 as the "it" thing to buy for the holidays, especially in America.  That isn't going to happen again this year.  And not that it's a big difference, but it actually sold 4.11 million.  In other words, the 360 is going to have to sell EXACTLY like it did when the Slim model was new and when Kinect was new.  This is just not going to happen.  Also, that YOY is definitely going to start to change next week when this week's sales are revealed, as this is the week Kinect launched.  I just don't see the 360 selling ~256K next week in Americas alone.  And while the following week has MW3, last year had Black Ops, Kinect, and the Slim effect.  Again 360 is going to see a huge boost, but I'm not seeing a boost to ~311K in Americas.

Kinect will still be big this year plus so many huge games is really going to help the 360 out where Kinect fails. Now granted I forgot to enter in the Kinect sales into my thoughts on this but I still believe the 360 will end the year pretty close to last years sales.

 

And my original point still stands.



thismeintiel on 04 November 2011

Oh, and I do see MS dropping support for the 360 shortly after the NeXbox is released. And not because the 360 is losing them money like the original Xbox, which it no longer is, but because of a lack of 1st party studios. That's not to say they are going to stop selling them, but they are definitely going to drop personal releases on the system to a bare minimum. In fact, I think we have already started to see the beginning of this. This year, the only notable games MS released was/is going to be GeOW3 and Halo Anniversary. Next year, it seems they will only be releasing Halo 4 and Alan Wake 2 (the later not being a huge game, but still a recognizable exclusive). They have probably already started developing games for the NeXbox, while a sparse few are focusing on the 360. Next year will probably be a pretty good year for the 360, but MS are probably going to be relying on Halo 4 (not developed by Bungie, so have to see how that turns out) and a cut for the 250GB model to $249 or $199.

Sony, on the other hand, have always supported their previous consoles, and next year is showing the same thing. Some studios have no doubt started developing games for the PS4, but next year the PS3 will have Starhawk, Sly Cooper 4, Twisted Metal, The Last Guardian, a new GOW game(?), new Quantic Dream game(?), and Sorcery(?). The last 3 have ?'s because they are not 100% confirmed, but are extremely likely. I'm also pretty confident that Sony may cut the price of the PS3 by $25-$50 late in the year to help combat the newly released Wii U. And while none of that has anything directly to do with the PS2 sales, it is going to tempt a lot of gamers to jump over to the PS3.



 

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Michael-5 on 04 November 2011
LivingMetal said:
Michael-5 said:

That's also the year of the Slim, and the turning point for PS3 sales. That price cut was $100, which was more dramatic because it made PS3 affordable. What about other Black Fridays?


The longer a console generation lasts and the later it becomes, the harder it becomes to make dramatic price cuts.  There is no way the PS2 can afford a $100 price drop now because it would make the console free if you are going to use the 2009 PS3 "price drop" of a $100 as an example.  It's relatve as time goes on.  The $300 PS3 price point in 2009 was 75% of the previous $400 PS3 model.  So a current $75 price drop to $225 ($225 is 75% of the previous $300 price point ofthe PS3) would be more in line of the 2009 "price drop."  So a $50 price drop is not too far off.  And what about the other Black Fridays?  You first said the "360 always got a bigger boost."  What is your reasoning why?

Not the same idea. In 2009, the price cut was a much more dramatic effect because it put PS3 into the affordable price range. $200 was the point when all prior gen consoles sold the greatest, and with inflation, that value is closer to $300 (VGC had an article comparing Wii's launch price to prior Nintendo launch prices showing that with inflation, they have all been about the same. They did this to estimate Wii U's launch price, dunno where the article is).

So even if the 2011 price cut match the % cut of the 2009 price cut, it's less dramatic. It was already affordable.

When PSP cut it's price earlier this year, sales only lifted for a month, despite a strong price cut (wasn't it $180 to $120, a 33% cut?). If PSP or PS2 got 25% price cut now, sales would not double like PS3's did in 2009.

Also look at other years, 360 did sell better on other Black Fridays. Why is it logical for 360 to sell better on Black Friday then PS3? Well Black Friday is a US sales holiday, and guess what. 360 outsells PS3 nearly 2:1 in the Americas region.



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Michael-5 on 04 November 2011
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:
 

I think Black Friday will be pro 360 because Black Friday is a US specific sales event, and in the US 360 typically outsells PS3 on a given week 2:1. It's less in the holidays, but 360 is always more favored, and if you look back at BF data, 360 always got a bigger boost (I think).

Nope, in 2009 PS3 sold way more in Americas on BF. That's also the same year it got a price cut, just like it did this year.

That's also the year of the Slim, and the turning point for PS3 sales. That price cut was $100, which was more dramatic because it made PS3 affordable. What about other Black Fridays?

As LivingMetal pointed out, I was just correcting your statement. One BF with PS3>360 already discredits it.

I underlined one important line you ignored. This is why my point is still credible.

When you pick and choose which part of someones statement you want to argue, you can end up completly twisting the original statement, which is just poor debating.



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Michael-5 on 04 November 2011
ils411 said:
Michael-5 said:
pezus said:
Michael-5 said:
 

I think Black Friday will be pro 360 because Black Friday is a US specific sales event, and in the US 360 typically outsells PS3 on a given week 2:1. It's less in the holidays, but 360 is always more favored, and if you look back at BF data, 360 always got a bigger boost (I think).

Nope, in 2009 PS3 sold way more in Americas on BF. That's also the same year it got a price cut, just like it did this year.

That's also the year of the Slim, and the turning point for PS3 sales. That price cut was $100, which was more dramatic because it made PS3 affordable. What about other Black Fridays?

 

Week Ending PS3 Xbox360 X360 Outsold PS3 by
Nov 13th 2010 378,898 520,893 141,995
Nov 20th 2010 345,757 453,942 108,185
Nov 27th 2010 765,116 885,353 120,237
Dec 4th 2010 619,455 665,244 45,789
Dec 11th 2010 696,487 771,313 74,826
       
Total 2,805,713 3,296,745 491,032

 

Week Ending PS3 Xbox360 X360 Outsold PS3 by
Nov 14th 2009 408,274 435,670 27,396
Nov 21st 2009 397,521 354,864 -42,657
Nov 28th 2009 779,432 536,935 -242,497
Dec 5th 2009 608,018 447,743 -160,275
Dec 12th 2009 745,934 533,844 -212,090
       
Total 2,939,179 2,309,056 -630,123

 

Week Ending PS3 Xbox360 X360 Outsold PS3 by
Nov 15th 2008 220,520 324,810 104,290
Nov 22nd 2008 238,074 401,943 163,869
Nov 29th 2008 409,116 735,569 326,453
Dec 6th 2008 391,019 599,397 208,378
Dec 13th 2008 467,790 696,642 228,852
       
Total 1,726,519 2,758,361 1,031,842

 

Week Ending PS3 Xbox360 X360 Outsold PS3 by
Nov 10th 2007 231,733 194,569 -37,164
Nov 17th 2007 250,054 227,903 -22,151
Nov 24th 2007 365,391 416,361 50,970
Dec 1st 2007 377,087 322,520 -54,567
Dec 8th 2007 456,866 423,452 -33,414
       
TOTAL 1,681,131 1,584,805 -96,326

How about that? 360 outsold the PS3 by 1M back in 2008 in just 5 weeks! Of course the price then was still up there in the sky plus no slim. Interesting...very interesting

When was Black Friday in 2007? If it was the week ending Nov 24th, then yes, 360 has outsold PS3 for every Black Friday except 2009.



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thismeintiel on 04 November 2011
yo_john117 said:

Kinect will still be big this year plus so many huge games is really going to help the 360 out where Kinect fails. Now granted I forgot to enter in the Kinect sales into my thoughts on this but I still believe the 360 will end the year pretty close to last years sales.

 

And my original point still stands.

I'm sure Kinect will do alright, especially in Americas, but nothing like it did last year.  I think the recent launches, and there underperformance compared to their predecessors,  of Dance Central 2 and Kinect Sports 2 shows exactly this.  And last year had large games, as well.  MW3 will probably have the same affect on sales that Black Ops did.  According to Halo Anniversary's pre-order numbers, it's not going to help out the 360 as much as Reach did last year.  Basically, the biggest missing factor is going to be the HUGE boost Kinect gave the 360.



 

Michael-5 on 04 November 2011
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Michael-5 said:

I think Black Friday will be pro 360 because Black Friday is a US specific sales event, and in the US 360 typically outsells PS3 on a given week 2:1. It's less in the holidays, but 360 is always more favored, and if you look back at BF data, 360 always got a bigger boost (I think). you think to much. 2009 is the exception. my point was the Sony bundled games are newer so there more on the must have side, where as MS bundled games are not new so there not quite in demand. but GT5 tells a different story considering its up 50% each wk 

FFXIII-2 doesn't release outside of Japan intil late January, so only Japans boost is relevant here, and it will be big. Guess PS3 at best, could match 360 this fall overall. hold on 1 minute! Jan 31 which is good and bad considering ME3: wait ME3 comes out March 16th so that means Sony pretty much has the first 2 months of 2012? holly f'n hell. Jan./Feb. has mostly always been good to Sony and with TW coming out on Feb14th and Soul Calibur5 coming out in Jan. right along with FF13-2. PS3 sells should be higher then they've ever been for those 2 months. or at the least keep Sony ahead in the new yr. fighting games still do better on PS platforms. 

March has also been a good month to Sony, but other then Yakuza Dead Souls MS has March in the bag with software. lets see if that affects PS3 sells for the first time in 4 yr's i think.

I just have faith in Kinect. It's a stupid gimmick, but these gimmicks tend to push consoles. I think Nov/Dec numbers will be strong for MS due to Kinect, and If MS was smart they would make a cool Kinect bundle, not like the one they have now. i would say MS is not smart but they make billions a yr so that wouldn't make much sense. humm is this the same faith Seece is using? faith F'k faith. you'll need more then faith to covence me kinect will boost hardware! thats your weakest arguement yet and i can't say you've had many if any. but faith other then maybe religion is nothing more then blind. are you telling me your driving a train with no breaks blindfolded about to derail on to the streets running through schools, chuches and what ever else you can run through while driving a runaway train while blind cause you forgot your glasses at home but there right infont of you on the runaway speeding train but you can't see them cause your blind whether you put them on or not?

faith! you better come up with something better then that fast!

hell i don't have faith any of this will happenning. i look at whats out and whats coming out then i look and trends for yrs past and whts going on now, and with BF3 boosting PS3 hardware ww dispite higher preoders and sells ww on 360, and PS3 sells mainly in the EMEAA then i have no idea other then the past 4 or 5 yr's why a repeat of that most recent event of last wk won't happen when MW3 comes out. it can happen. it likely will happen. but we've already proven history doesn't always repeat itself or have you for gotten?

again when you when you quote this you better have something better then faith. 

PS3 bundles have newer games, yea, but it's not like Uncharted 3 will push that many more new gamers to buy a PS3 is Uncharted 2 did. It will obviously still push some, but many limited edition console buyers will buy the console out of sheer fanboyism. They did this for Halo and Gears in the past as well. meh. whatever happens it will be signifigant considering one factor and thats it has higher preorders then UC2, and did GEARS3 v GEARS2. srry but like GEARS although the bigger of the 2 UC3 will have a huge impact on PS3 hardware sells.

well it should anyway when you look at everything except R3.

With the 360 multi-game bundles, new gamers get a deal, and get 1 game from each major exclusive franchise, or from most of them. That I would imagine, would appeal to new console buyers more, and as they beat those older games, then they will get the newer versions used. They are clearly in no rush if they have no console yet. yep and as with PS3 bundles. why are we arguing this mute point? its not even an argument. its more like stateting the obvious. both consoles have relatively new games so for new buyers there even.

Console colours never come outside of Japan anymore. It's a shame because I really liked the N64 colours, and I waited to get my Wii in a special ed colour (got red). I think the White PS3 boosted sales in Japan in 2010 by 30k in mid summer for a week, so multi colours could boost PS3 sales by 50-100k during the fall, which seems exactly like that Halo: CEA will do. well lets see. 4 consoles. at 50k per console equal's 200k. or 400k. those are your numbers not mine? besides those consoles will stay on retail shelves so the boost won't stop thre. yea it is sad. hell we got multicolor controlers why not consoles?

I don;t get your comment about my history... your crazy. i wasn't talking about your history. it was a typo/miss print. look at the post below.

here re-read the post with the changes. the word change will be underlined in blod

COD! seriously? did we not just learn a valuable lesson by underestimating BD3's impact on PS3 sells? never the less i'm not blind deff and dumb cause we have history and it can repeat its self. on the other hand the 360 version of BF3 still sold better on 360 in the Americas and 360 still got thrashed on the hardware side so lets not give to much credit to 360 and favor it as the winner but its likely to be that way.

the most significant part of that post was history can repeat its self.

I don't wanna spend anymore time on VGC...trying to cut back....wah...

People who buy consoles now, don't have any "must have" titles. They buy a 360 for Halo, and PS3 for Uncharted, and it's likely they will want to start their consoles life with the older games. 5 cheap games bundled in the console will likely entice new console buyers more then the newest version of 1 or two of those franchises.

Sony will have a good January/February, MS will likely break even for March, then who knows.

For faith. I feel Kinect will push sales in Novemeber/December because it's a casual add on, and like Wii Fit and the Wii, sales tend to jump in November/December.

50-100k was for all 4 consoles. The White PS3 of the mid summer also came with a hard drive boost, and November isn't the Japanese holiday season like it is elsewhere. Also many people interested in a coloured PS3, may have gotten a coloured PS3 in a previous limited edition coloured release, so adding colours now should be less dramatic.

History can repeat itself. Every time CoD launches, 360 gets better sales, again, except for 2009, and 2007 because CoD wasn't big then.



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