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thismeintiel on 03 November 2011
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yo_john117 said:
thismeintiel said:
yo_john117 said:

How about you learn to debate without attacking/name calling people. 

It's not in it's dying years. This year the 360 will probably match or be up YOY in the Americas not to mention next year it will probably do close to this year because there will be a price cut.

And you are assuming that the 360 will stop selling completely when the next box comes out which is not going to be the case at all. The only reason why MS pulled the original Xbox is because it was a black hole for money.

If you look at the numbers you will see it is possible that the 360 overtakes the PS2 sales in the Americas.

If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.

I think you're not realizing how huge Kinect was last year.  It helped push the 360 as the "it" thing to buy for the holidays, especially in America.  That isn't going to happen again this year.  And not that it's a big difference, but it actually sold 4.11 million.  In other words, the 360 is going to have to sell EXACTLY like it did when the Slim model was new and when Kinect was new.  This is just not going to happen.  Also, that YOY is definitely going to start to change next week when this week's sales are revealed, as this is the week Kinect launched.  I just don't see the 360 selling ~256K next week in Americas alone.  And while the following week has MW3, last year had Black Ops, Kinect, and the Slim effect.  Again 360 is going to see a huge boost, but I'm not seeing a boost to ~311K in Americas.