If you look at the numbers, the 360 is most likely going to finish down YOY.  The 360 sold ~8.31 mil in Americas last year, and has sold ~4.21 mil so far in Americas this year.  That's a difference of 4.1 mil.  We have 9 weeks of sales to go.  So in those 9 weeks, the 360 needs too pull off an average of ~456K a week there.  Last week it sold ~150K.  You can start to see how difficult it is going to be for the 360 to finish up YOY, or even on par with last year.

Now, you couple the above with the fact that the PS2 is greatly undertracked here (worth noting that even with the undertracking, even the DS hasn't quite passed the PS2 in America), and you can see that the 360 is going to struggle to even come close to the PS2's numbers.  Of course, it is also a moving target, as the PS2 is quite finished selling more than a few million in Americas in the next few years.

That's also the year of the Slim, and the turning point for PS3 sales. That price cut was $100, which was more dramatic because it made PS3 affordable. What about other Black Fridays?

But I'm sure (as a lot of us) that he was proud of his topic when he first posted it, and people responded.  And assuming you are correct that these people are proud, Seece could have respond in kind.  Or could he?  I guess there is no point in arguing that the sky is blue on a normal clear day.  Are blue skies really that cruel?

The longer a console generation lasts and the later it becomes, the harder it becomes to make dramatic price cuts.  There is no way the PS2 can afford a $100 price drop now because it would make the console free if you are going to use the 2009 PS3 "price drop" of a $100 as an example.  It's relatve as time goes on.  The $300 PS3 price point in 2009 was 75% of the previous $400 PS3 model.  So a current $75 price drop to $225 ($225 is 75% of the previous $300 price point ofthe PS3) would be more in line of the 2009 "price drop."  So a $50 price drop is not too far off.  And what about the other Black Fridays?  You first said the "360 always got a bigger boost."  What is your reasoning why?

Thats how it actually work. Since the retailers purchaed the 360s at the old price, if MS does decide to slash the price, The difference would be shouldered by MS either through direct  cheque payment or through invoice deduction. But this only holds true for on-hand inventory. For new shipments, new cost would apply.

Buy yeah, the longer MS waits, the more unlikely they'll drop the price.

It doesn't look likely.

Maybe MS will have something hardware-moving to go along with the 10-year Halo anniversary?

Or maybe MS just underestimated Sony and/or overestimated themselves.

How about that? 360 outsold the PS3 by 1M back in 2008 in just 5 weeks! Of course the price then was still up there in the sky plus no slim. Interesting...very interesting

First of all i was just putting out some suggestions of a proposed scenario that could happen. I wasnt claiming that the 360 will absolutely outsell the ps2 in americas, i was just trying to show you that its not crazy and that it has a chance, even though its a slight chance. Maybe you think this is my prediction or something but its not. I really havnt given the topic much thought. Other than the above post.

Id like to see xbox doin even remotely close to ps2's numbers in its 11th year

i was merely pointing out that the ps2 is in its true final years now, its really not gonna be long before Sony pulls ps2 in americas.

so you think it will sell 5-6 million in next 1.5 months ONLY IN AMERICA ??? That's some serious ddelusion right there

360 is at 33.8 mil atm, i said it could end up with 38 - 39.So that would put the numbers at 4 - 5 this year as a POSSIBILITY, NOT 5 - 6. Maths failure? Again not my prediction but a possible scenario. 4mil is a reasonable amount if MS has some sort of plan.

You can't possibly think that's possible, do you now. 7 million in america only in its 7th year with all the hype about next gen?

Again a rough estimation, but 360 will have another strong year next year thats for sure, unless something drastic happens to slow their momentum.

That's a lot of ''ifs'' and best case scenarios there .Not really much to go on.

Well it was precisely my point to put a best case scenario out ther. After all a best case scenrio is stil a scenario. And obviously im using "ifs" i dont have a FUCKING crystal ball.

PS2 is seriously undertracked here btw

This is silly. I was using vgchartz data.

I believe it is. It is wrong to assume a console can sell almost 100% of its LTD sales in its last years...

Again its not 100% your maths is off again. Lets say 360 ends up with 37 mil at the end of this year. (selling 3 mil from now til end of year). It would need to sell 20mil to pass ps2 (if ps2 is at +57mil). Now lets do the maths. -----does maths calculations in a few seconds cos im not a retard----- It would need to sell 54% of its LTD sales.

Even if we use the exact LTD sales as of this very moment the number is stil not even close to 100%. Its more around the 70% mark.

You need to do two things:

1. learn to do basic math calculations.

2. and ease the fuck up theres really no need for using bold and underlining.

I wasnt even making a prediction! Just saying its not a crazy statement.

But aren't most of the undertracked PS2's from over in EMEAA? I can't imagine it's too undertracked in Americas (not more than a million or two)

And I don't think you really understand how much consoles sell during the Christmas season.

The 360 sold 4.23 million from now until the end of the year last year plus the 360 has been up YOY in the Americas for the past 4+ weeks. This week of sales are about 50k over the same week last year.

And then when you enter in the garanteed price cut for next year the 360 should come close to this years sales and in all probability the 360 will sell for years after the next box comes out.

I'm not saying it's a fact that the 360 will outsell the the PS2 in the Americas but it is very plausible.