The thing people on VGC don't ever notice, is that 360 is almost always selling better in the combined EMEAA and Americas region. So far for this year PS3 has sold 820k more units in Japan then 360, but the gap has only grown by 1 million. Even now with the PS3 on a price cut, 360 is outselling PS3 in Americas an EMEAA. true but the balance is total EMEAA and Japan that give Sony there lead every yr for the past 4 yrs.

So to give Seece some credit, I expect in the combined regions outside Japan, for 360 to outsell PS3. For the same reason, because PS3 is the last decent selling 7th gen system in Japan (soon to stop selling well in Japan IMO), I don't expect PS3 to ever match 360 sales WW, unless this is well into the 8th gen. i don't always agree with Seece. and he pisses me off alot! i'm mad at him now for making this thread. if Sony is going to out sell 360 it will take them 3 yrs if Sony continues to have a 1m unit lead going into the holiday season and thats about the only chance Sony has unless the yet to be seen move hardcore games start flying in then we may see a more impressive lead but that deals to much into speculation so i won't go there.

Also I plain just don't agree with you that Move will boost as much hardware as Kinect. Kinect is a more original peripheral, and is selling 5x as well (to unique users) already. Kinect and Move are also very casual targeted peripherals, and lucky for MS casual gamers tend to buy more during the holidays, and Americas is the most strongly affected region by the holidays. very true and the move thing was just a statement not something i believe cause if i did Seece would have quoted me, pissed me off, and i'd likely be band. i'll leave the move arguments to jnul.

Kinect will help MS, but PS3 is $50 cheaper, and all it needs to do, all I think it will do, is match 360 sales WW for Q4 (However EMEAA/Americas will likely favor 360 strongly). Even if PS3 looses any ground this holiday, it won't be much and will be regained in Q1 and Q2 of 2012. i expect them to sell very even. Sonys UC3 bundle, FFXIII-2 bundles, and the blue and red consoles should match the bundles MS have, so i truley don't see any advantage. i think theres one more bundle in Japan that will be the hot ticket in Japan but i'm not sure wht it is.

The CoD gaps (360 v PS3) have actually INCREASED with each consecutive game in the 2 series being released. From CoD 4 to CoD MW2 the gap increased, and from CoD WaW to Black Ops the gap also increased. The only time the gaps have "seemed to decrease" was going from an Infinity Ward game to a Treyarch game, because overall people know that the Treyarch games aren't quite up to par and many less 360 players buy in on those versions. I expect the gap for MW3 will again be higher than the gap for MW2.

GAPS (360 lead)
CoD 3 - 1.33m;  CoD WaW - 2.07m;  CoD Black Ops - 2.41m
CoD 4 - 2.84m;  CoD MW2 - 3.3m;  CoD MW3 - ???

You sure about that?

If you mean Americas + EMEAA well there's an easy counterpoint: PS3 beat 360 massively in Japan and EMEAA, it's only Americas which kept it from being an arse whipping. It's about worldwide sales. What happens in each region, or a combination of regions that doesn't cover the world, is secondary.

In reality there are only 2 countries which are keeping 360 in touch with PS3: USA and UK. Certainly there are other countries where 360 has higher LTD and weekly sales than PS3 (Aussie), but they are miniscule markets in the big picture. Only USA and UK have sales levels which have a substantial effect on global sales, and even UK is small potatoes next to USA. Japan can never solely be the difference betwen Xbox and Playstation. PS3 has modest leads in most countries and a big lead in one. 360 has modest leads in a few countries and big leads in 2. And PS3 sells in some countries 360 does not, though I don't know which. Put it all together and, in recent years, it adds up to PS3 selling more than 360.

Digressing. I wonder which way China is going to jump once it opens up. Eventually China will be a bigger console market than USA, just like it will be bigger than the USA in every way (good and bad) eventually. I suspect China could be Xbox territory: mostly because China and Japan are long historical adversaries (kinda like the French and English); and I think there's a lot of Yankophiles (for want of a better word - no offence intended at all, esp. not to Southerners) among the general China populous. Certainly more Chinese who love Americana than who love Japanesiana (is that a word?).

Have to leave, so I'll make this short

EMEAA total has been pretty balanced most of this gens life, only since the Slim has PS3 gotten a stronghold in EMEAA. Japan is a small region, and Americas is the biggest region. My point was that in general, most of the world prefers 360. So any gap shrinking will be mostly due to Japan. if PS3 dies in Japan, like most 7th gen consoles already have, the gap will no longer shrink. Japan! die? i don't expect much from either market. EMEAA, and Americas. Sony still has RPG's coming out next yr that should still give it great sells in Japan so Japan droping when it continues to get suport isn't going to happen. i don't know wht continues to drive 360 sells in Americas but MS has hit a cord somewhere in Americas thats simply incomprehendable. i will never see why 360 sells so well in Americas even when theres nothing out.

2nd paragraph, I agree, but I think the yearly gap PS3 will have will be under 1 million. Maybe 500k-1 million. So If it happens, and Japan doesn't die early, I say 5-6 years. That is if both consoles can sell large valumes for that long. This is why I don't think PS3 will ever overtake 360. agreed but bringing up something from our last epic conversation is that PS3 if MS does discontinues 360 after 2015 then in the PS3's 10th and final yr in the 7th gen 2016 the PS3 will have won the war which is funny in 2 ways.

one becuase many won't acknowledge it, and sony fans won't say PS3 won the 7th gen. all they'll say is PS3 out sold the 360wii, and then PS3 will do wht PS2 is doing and thats sell in developing markets, and we'll have the same type of arguements we had this gen next gen about this gen.

yea i know real petty isn't it. "hey what happened in the 7th gen? PS3 got is ass handed to it and thats whts going to happen in the 8th gen." and then the same BS that makes many hate this site will flame a new war and i won't be here for that.

The bundles PS3 has in Japan will help PS3 in January and December. This will give PS3 a bit of a lead starting in 2012. For fall 2011, they should sell about the same, but I still think 360 can top PS3 in Novemember/December just because MW3 and Battlefield 3 will be huge on 360, and Final Fantasy won't be big until January. i can agre and disagree which means i'm neutral.

Not sure this how reasonable of an approach this is though...

Let's be honest, the 360 does not compete with the PS3 in Japan, full stop.  Lifetime sales, yearly sales, this weeks sales, no matter how you cut it, the PS3 dominates the 360 in Japan.  The total lifetime sales of the 360 n Japan are negligible to the 360's total market and could be removed from thier sales numbers with little impact.  Additionally, the PS3 is available in areas that the 360 is not.  These two factors skew the worldwide numbers...in fact, even you say "PS3 beat 360 massively in Japan and EMEAA, it's only Americas which kept it from being an arse whipping." but that isn't really true, is it?  Take out the 900K lead that Japan has provided the PS3 this year and the sales in area where the 360 is not avaialable and has the EMEAA REALLY been anywhere near an "arse" whipping difference in sales?

Now, I am not saying that Worldwide numbers are not important.  Worldwide install base is an important number and I'm SURE Microsoft would prefer to be much more competitive in Japan.  But picture a scenario where the 360 dominates the American market, ties or wins EMEAA the rest of this year, and only doesn't overtake PS3 sales because of the big difference in sales in Japan.  Do you think Microsoft would look at that as a "worldwide loss"?  Does that ever growing gap in sales in Japan have any effect on the western market and thier install base for the rest of this generation?

All that being said, I would guess that the only way the 360 overtakes the PS3 sales WORLDWIDE this year, is to drop the price.  That might allow the sales in the US and EMEAA to elevate over the holiday season to not only mitigate the losses in Japan, but normalize the sales this year to a higher total level than the PS3.