And a 25+ year old game tops all the modern games, kinda shows you something about the poor state of the industry. Somewhat encouraging to see Wii managing 100,00 albeit just BARELY. And 3DS doing surprisingly decent.

PS3 has outsold the Wii by a Million and the 360 by a bit more. For the last Week it outsold the 360 by 45k and the Wii by 63k. That's fairly big for a single Week.  Anyway, you're talking exclusives.

Wii really does only have Zelda that's big, Kirby is there and as of right now, price isn't a factor for Wii. It's been dirt cheap here (and everywhere else) now for Months. Mario Kart Wii, despite being bundled with the Wii in a number of places, will be massively overshadowed by Mario Kart 7. Which brings me to the 3DS, which will have all Nintendo's attention this Year. Look at E3 for your perfect example of Nintendo's focus. You talk of it having a big boost during the Holidays, but those boosts have been in Years where Wii has actually been selling really well and had numerous games releasing during the Holidays. This Year... No.

360. Where to start... There's a whole big bunch of new games releasing for the system as you say. Gears 3 is already huge. Forza isn't a huge franchise in all honesty, Forza 3 "sold" 4.93 Million units... With over 1.5 Million of those being bundled. Halo is Halo, we all know what it's like in America. It'll give MS a reason to make more bundles. As for Kinect, I see nothing new and innovative releasing for it. Without a pricecut, it's not doing nowhere near as well as last Year.

PS3... It has Uncharted as we all know. Ratchet. Final Fantasy XIII-2 in Japan was missing from your list, will have a special exclusive HW bundle. Ni No Kuni is missing from your list, will have a special HW bundle. It has a whole bunch of Move games (While Move isn't anywhere near as big as Kinect, it's big in the smaller markets of EMEAA). Team ICO Collection, Splinter Cell Collection, Atelier Totori.

Now what you ignored in your post, were 3rd party games. 3rd party games are hugely important, for a number of reasons - One of these reasons is of course, keeping interest in your console. FIFA 12, Battlefield 3, Modern Warfare 3, Dark Souls, Skyrim, Arkham City and Assassin's Creed Revelations are all fairly big to huge games releasing on PS3 and 360 this Year. All will give boosts. The Wii has Just Dance 3 that'll give it a boost.

It's probably gonna be the total opposite of what you say it will be. PS3 will be ahead of the 360 either significantly or it'll be close. Wii will be lagging behind.

At this rate, I still don't see how it'll be possible for the 360 to meets Microsoft's boastrous prediction of being the top selling console worldwide in 2011.

That being said, gaming hardware is going to be very sad faced this year as a whole. We'll see what GeoW3 does next week (the first mega title released this season) to boost, but I'm not confident. And I really don't see any other title, exclusive or not, that could do much better ...

F1/FIFA 12 combo, Modern Warfare 3, Uncharted 3, Ni No Kuni, Skyward Sword and Final Fantasy XIII-2 all have the potential to move HW on launch.

F1/FIFA and CoD I think will obviously be similar to last Years boosts (F1/FIFA boosted PS3 by 5% and 15% in consecutive Weeks, CoD boosted 360 by 44% the Week after Kinect release and PS3 by 21%)

Uncharted 3 will be Sony's only majorly big game this Year so that'll be given a big push alongside the bundle. Ni No Kuni and Final Fantasy XIII-2 both have special hardware bundles like the Gears one.

Overall sales are going to be massively down YoY though, no matter what. 3DS is going to be the bright spark this Holiday, while others are down.

By Nintendo's own admission they expect to sell less than PS3 this year so even if Wii does outsell PS3 during the holidays it won't be by a significant amount.