Actuals. They were pretty off with Breaking Dawn.

Forecast: 'Twilight' Set to Beat Three Family Movies Over Thanksgiving

All three new wide releases this weekend aim to drag families away from their Turkey Day festivities and Black Friday shopping, though none are likely to come close to stealing first place away from The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1. Disney's revamped The Muppets hits 3,440 locations, while Sony/Aardman animation movie Arthur Christmas cruises in to 3,376 venues. Martin Scorsese's Hugo has a comparatively light release at only 1,277 theaters. The weekend will be in a tight race with last year, which had Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 and Tangled both earning over $68 million for the five-day frame. 

The Muppets appears to have a pretty clear edge overArthur Christmas and Hugo thanks to an impressive marketing effort by Disney that appears to have revived the dormant brand and made the band of puppets relevant again. While The Muppets were incredibly popular in the 70s and in to the 80s, the franchise stalled in the 90s with disappointing results from The Muppet Christmas Carol($27.3 million), Muppet Treasure Island ($34.3 million) and 1999's Muppets from Space ($16.6 million), which was the last big-screen appearance by the characters. Disney has made a concerted effort to reintroduce the characters through the normal marketing pipelines, and all of the work has an infectious energy and enthusiasm. Parody trailers in particular have been very popular among the online community, though it's important to recognize that that doesn't necessarily translate to strong box office numbers. 

Another thing working in The Muppets favor is Disney's experience opening movies over Thanksgiving weekend. While Old Dogs didn't make much noise in 2009,Enchanted and Tangled were huge with $49 million and $68.7 million, respectively, for the five-day period. With so much competition for family audiences, The Muppets probably won't reach Enchanted levels, but all signs still point to a strong start. Disney is currently anticipating $29-30 million for the three-day weekend and $40 million for the five-day frame.

Arthur Christmas is the latest movie from Aardman Animation, which impressed in 2000 with Chicken Run($106.8 million) but failed to break out with Flushed Away ($64.7 million) or Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit ($56.1 million). All three of these movies debuted between $16 and $19 million, and the insane amount of competition should keep Arthur Christmas from exceeding that range. However, the movie will play incredibly well throughout December: set on the night before Christmas and focusing on Santa Claus's dysfunctional family, Arthur Christmas is the 2011 release most directly connected with the upcoming holidays. Sony is anticipating grosses in the mid-to-high teen millions for the five-day period.

With its story of a boy living in the walls of a Parisian train station, Hugo is easily the least mainstream of the weekend's three wide releases. Paramount's decision to release the movie in just 1,277 theaters is a de facto acknowledgement of this challenge, and the hope is that the audience that does turn out will spread strong word-of-mouth and allow for expansion in coming weeks. That strategy could work, as the movie has received impressive reviews (currently 96 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and has the kind of pedigree (Martin Scorsese) and message (the importance of film preservation) that will translate in to sustained awards buzz throughout the remainder of the season. Paramount is estimating between $10 and $12 million for the five-day frame.

Also a major awards contender, The Descendants expands to another 50 markets after earning $1.19 million from just 29 theaters this past weekend. Considering it's the only new movie in these areas aimed directly at adults, it should do great business, though it probably won't come close to the Top Five. 

Weekend Forecast (Nov. 23-27)
1. Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $39 million (3-day), $61 million (5-day)
2. The Muppets - $28 million (3-day), $41 million (5-day)
3. Happy Feet Two - $18 million (3-day), $24 million (5-day)
4. Arthur Christmas - $15 million (3-day), $21 million (5-day)
5. Puss in Boots - $8 million (3-day), $11 million (5-day)
-. Hugo - $7 million (3-day), $10 million (5-day)

Bar for Success
With Disney's all-out marketing effort, The Muppets needs $30 million for the five-day weekend to get a pass. While it's going to play well for a while, Arthur Christmas needs to start off with around $20 million. With its smaller release, Hugo should be in good shape anywhere over $10 million.

Thanksgiving Update: 'Breaking Dawn,' 'Muppets' on Top

As expected, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 held on to the top spot at the box office for the first two days of Thanksgiving weekend. The Muppets was easily the strongest out of the three new family-oriented releases, while Arthur Christmas and Hugo earned less than holdover Happy Feet Two.

Based on studio estimates, Breaking Dawn added $12.5 million on Wednesday and $7.8 million on Thursday for a total of $20.3 million so far this weekend. For its opening week, the fourth Twilight movie grossed $179.3 million, which is off 4.7 percent from New Moon. Continuing along this trajectory, the movie looks poised to finish around $280 million.

The Muppets debuted to $6.6 million on Wednesday and dipped a bit to $5.9 million on Thursday. Its $12.5 million two-day total is down from Enchanted's $14.6 million at the same time in 2007. That movie wound up with over $49 million for the five-day frame, which puts The Muppets in line for over $40 million.

Happy Feet Two faded even further from its predecessor on Wednesday and Thursday with $5 million. That's just 37 percent of the first Happy Feet's $13.6 million over the same two days in 2006. The situation looks slightly better across the entire opening week, as Happy Feet Two earned around half as much as Happy Feet ($30.4 million versus $62.2 million).

Arthur Christmas opened with $2.4 million on Wednesday before dropping to $1.85 million on Thursday. With a two-day total of $4.25 million, the Aardman Animation movie should wind up between $14 and $15 million for the five-day frame.

Hugo was slightly behind Arthur with just over $4 million for the two-day period, though it was playing in a fraction of the theaters (1,277 versus 3,376). Remarkably, Hugo improved 40 percent from Wednesday to Thursday, while most other movies were down or about even. Based on the handful of instances where this has happened in the past few years, Hugo will likely finish the weekend with between $12 and $14 million.

Friday Report: 'Twilight' Holds Off Mighty 'Muppets'

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 maintained a solid grasp of first place on Friday, though The Muppets continued to be a strong presence in second. Meanwhile, newcomers Arthur Christmas and Hugo remained neck-and-neck despite Arthur's significant theater count advantage.

Breaking Dawn Part 1 plummeted 76 percent to an estimated $16.9 million on Friday. That decline is nearly identical to that of New Moon at the same time in 2009. With $196.2 million so far, though, Breaking Dawn is currently trailing New Moon by over $9 million. The fourth installment in the Twilight series appears to be on target for a five-day Thanksgiving weekend around $60 million.

The Muppets added $12.3 million yesterday for a three-day total of $24.8 million. It's closely following the pattern of Disney's 2007 Thanksgiving entry Enchanted, albeit with slightly lower grosses so far. Based on that comparison, The Muppets is currently poised for a $42 million five-day haul.

The music continued to fade for Happy Feet Two on Friday. The movie was off 12 percent to $5.1 million, or just 33 percent of the original Happy Feet's gross on the same day in 2006. Through eight days in theaters, Happy Feet Two has made a meager $35.5 million, and is currently in line for around $18 million for the holiday weekend.

Arthur Christmas earned an estimated $4.55 million on Friday for a three-day total of $8.8 million. That should translate in to around $15 million for the five-day weekend, which is lower than the three-day starts of all previous Aardman Animation wide releases. With its very direct connection to Christmas, Arthur didn't need to get off to a great start, but it still looks set to come in on the low-end of modest expectations.

Hugo claimed fifth place on Friday with an estimated $4.5 million, which is a very solid tally considering it's only playing at 1,277 venues. The movie has so far made $8.55 million, and will end the weekend with roughly $15 million. Paramount is reporting that 75 percent of Hugo's Friday box office came from 3D presentations.

Much further down the chart, The Artist debuted to an estimated $75,000 at just four locations. That's 63 percent of The King's Speech's opening day, which The Weinstein Company unveiled on the same weekend and at the same number of venues last year. Considering one movie is an uplifting historical drama while the other is a black-and-white silent movie, The Artist's debut is definitely impressive. Still, it remains to be seen how the movie plays outside of New York and Los Angeles.

Weekend Estimates

Weekend Estimates

I'm very pleased with those Hugo #'s..

Weekend Forecast (Dec. 9-11)
1. New Year's Eve - $29.5 million
2. The Sitter - $12.9 million
3. Breaking Dawn - $8.4 million (-49%)
4. The Muppets - $7.1 million (-36%)
5. Hugo - $7 million (-7%)
6. Arthur Christmas - $6.4 million (-14%)

Yeah hopefully hugo has legs. Hugo deserves twilight numbers and Twilight deserves Hugo number...no not even that